Randwick tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy runner-by-runner Big Dance guide plus best bets and analysis
Racing editor Ray Thomas and form expert Ron Dufficy rate the chances of each runner in the $2m Big Dance, plus their top tips in every race at Randwick on Tuesday.
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The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy discuss the chances of every runner in the $2m Big Dance, plus debate all the big race chances at Royal Randwick and Flemington on Tuesday.
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DUFF’S BEST
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RAY’S BEST
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Race 10, No.2: NORWEIGAN BLISS
VALUE BET
Race 5, No.14: CASINO KID
RACE 5: THE BIG DANCE (1500m)
1: BANDERSNATCH
Ron Dufficy: Bandersnatch is the highest rated horse but has the big weight, obviously. His two runs back in Victoria have been great but he is untried at the mile. However, his two 1500m runs are pretty good. Fits in well.
Ray Thomas: Bandersnatch was a brilliant Tamworth Cup winner to qualify and his two lead-up runs were great pointers for this race. Classy horse but the wide barrier is the issue.
2: SURF DANCER
Dufficy: Tough on pace type, Surf Dancer maps well from the draw. His first-up win in the Shannon Stakes was very good and the drier track the better for him.
Thomas: Surf Dancer defeated Old Flame and Ellsberg in the Shannon the two placegetters have won big races since confirm the form. Surf Dancer ran well in the Craven Plate but is in his right race this time.
3: RUSTIC STEEL
Dufficy: Rustic Steel has won his only two attempts at 1600m in The Coast and the Scone Cup so he sets up well. He has a good winning strike rate and handles all conditions.
Thomas: Rustic Steel was the number one seed from the Kris Lees stable earlier this spring but his lead-up form has only been fair. He should be at his peak now and ready to run an improved race.
4: CHARMMEBABY
Dufficy: She’s a stakes winner over 1600m at Eagle Farm earlier this year and resumed with an even effort over 1200m at Port Macquarie. She’s had a barrier trial since that first up run but gets to the mile a little bit quickly for me.
Thomas: Charmmebaby has won up to 2000m so this course and distance is in her favour. She is getting to 1600m second-up but she’s good enough to be in the finish.
5: HOSIER
Dufficy: He’s had a perfect preparation for this race and hasn’t put a foot wrong for trainer Kris Lees winning both starts since joining the stable. He just needs luck from that outside draw which is a bit of a horror for him.
Thomas: Hosier won the Coffs Harbour Cup impressively and backed that up with a dominant Randwick mile win. He’s in great form and could give Frankie Dettori a farewell big-race win.
6: ALEAS
Dufficy: I thought he was very good first up and then he has just been fair in two runs since. He is a Wagga Cup winner and could easily improve with that Chris Waller sense of timing.
Thomas: Aleas also has form at 2000m which stands him in good stead for a big Randwick mile. He’s struggling a little to find his best form but expect an improved showing.
7: SIBAAQ
Dufficy: I love the way this horse has returned. He is primed third-up from a spell and maps perfectly from the good draw. He looks very hard to beat.
Thomas: Sibaaq won the Wellington Cup earlier this year and has produced two great runs since resuming. He chased hard when second to Epsom winner Ellsberg last start which is the right form for this race.
8: QUALITY TIME
Dufficy: He is an improving horse and happy to forgive him for Saturday when he over-raced. Maybe that took the sting out of him to come back in distance because he didn’t execute that well on Saturday. We know the promise he showed prior to that run.
Thomas: Quality Time made it three straight in the Port Macquarie Cup then was only unplaced as favourite in the Rosehill Gold Cup last Saturday. He has to come back from 2000m but he’s better suited here.
9: COGNAC
Dufficy: He appeared back in form winning two starts back but last start he dropped off a little too quickly for me. I’d prefer others.
Thomas: Cognac had a month between runs and over-raced when unplaced last start. In the Bathurst Cup at his previous start, he dominated from in front under a big weight. Each way.
10: READY TO HUMBLE
Dufficy: It’s hard to see him shaping up to this level although he was pretty good last start. He’s an each-way chance at best for mine.
Thomas: Ready To Humble didn’t have the best of luck in running and there was some merit to his unplaced run at Warwick Farm. But this is harder again and he’s a place chance at best.
11: KEDAH
Dufficy: Kedah is a seven-year-old mare who I feel needs a career best to be competitive here. She might sneak into the minor money.
Thomas: She doesn’t win often, Ron, but her last start effort at Port Macquarie was encouraging. She is big odds for a reason.
12: CISCO BAY
Dufficy: Cisco Bay can pull a run out every now and again as he did last start. Although he rarely puts two runs together he has hit form at the right time.
Thomas: I think Cisco Bay produced a career-best to win over the Randwick mile last start. If the track stays in the soft range then he emerges as a definite chance at generous odds.
13: WICKLOW
Dufficy: Wicklow is racing well and threatening to win another race. I hate the outside draw but I love the gear change with the blinkers going on.
Thomas: Wicklow ran on strongly but met his match in Cisco Bay last start. He’s ready now and the expected fast early tempo will suit him. Watch for him charging home wide out.
14: CASINO KID
Dufficy: I think he is right in this race. He is very well-weighted and has had a month’s freshen between runs. He’s an underrated horse who has won a barrier trial impressively since that last run when he ran second behind Hosier. He is a good winning chance.
Thomas: Casino Kid is my top selection. He simply doesn’t know how to run a bad race. He gets back in his races and needs galloping room but he will be finishing faster than anything else in this race.
15: IMPASSE
Dufficy: Impasse has had a month between runs and he has surprised at big odds on a few occasions throughout his career. His best form is on the dry and it would be a big upset if he won.
Thomas: Impasse carried a big weight to win the Murwillumbah Cup and drops 9kg here. I agree, it would be a boilover if he won but he’s probably over the odds.
16: REGAL STAGE
Dufficy: Regal Stage is a capable type on his day and his first-up run was fair. I think it is a big ask second-up in this race.
Thomas: Regal Stage won the Muswellbrook Cup earlier this year and found it too short when resuming at Warwick Farm. He needs to get control up front and I doubt that will happen in his high-pressure race.
17: AL MAH HAHA
Dufficy: Al Mah Haha is a dual Goulburn Cup winner but hasn’t raced since June. He has had three barrier trials but this will be a tough race to win first up.
Thomas: Al Mah Haha goes first-up into The Big Dance. He has never won beyond 1400m and it’s been almost a year to the day since he has won a race.
18: CAESARS PALACE
Dufficy: There is a lot of stable confidence here. He won the Coonamble Cup at Dubbo and has had a nice barrier trial win between runs. He’s very fit, has no weight and is a place chance.
Thomas: Caesars Palace bolted in at Dubbo and drops 9kg for this race. The soft-heavy track is in his favour and he can run a race at good odds.
19: ONE AYE
Dufficy: One Aye is flying at the moment. She won the Forbes Cup to qualify but I just think she is a length or two short of this level.
Thomas: One Aye was moving into the race at Randwick when she got checked at a vital stage and ran fifth to Mahagoni. Her previous run at Group 3 level was very good. Expect a competitive run.
20: SPANISH POINT
Dufficy: Spanish Point has had five weeks between runs since he qualified by winning the Lismore Cup. I think this looks too hard for him.
Thomas: Spanish Point put a gap on his rivals in the Lismore Cup. He was very good last start but this is a whole different level.
EMERGENCIES
21: SHAMEONUS
Dufficy: Shameonus scored a tough win in the Orange Cup back in April. His last start effort at Warwick Farm indicated a return to form was imminent but this is a strong race.
Thomas: At least Shameonus is proven over a middle distance so the mile is no issue but he will be tested in this grade.
22: BECKFORD
Dufficy: He finished strongly to win the Armidale Cup late last year but hasn’t done much since. He’s resuming off a couple of good trials.
Thomas: Beckford does have a strong finish but he’s going first up into a very strong The Big Dance. He will find this very tough.
23: NOT NEGOTIATING
Dufficy: Not Negotiating did a good job to win the Mudgee Cup but she hasn’t managed to place in eight starts since. This looks too tough.
Thomas: Honest country mare who did beat One Aye at Mudgee. Her form since has been only fair and it would be a surprise if she won.
24: SHE’S ALL IN
Dufficy: She’s All In won the Nowra on a heavy track late last year but her recent form is only fair.
Thomas: She’s a stablemate of One Aye and would struggle here. She can run a race in The Little Dance.
ROYAL RANDWICK
RACE 1: MIDWAY HANDICAP (1800m)
Ron Dufficy: Loving Cilla finds herself in a very suitable race. She is sure to be charging home. If Nautical Miss runs here instead of Kembla she will go close. She is up in class but at least she has some upside with a nice racing style and from a good draw. Karmazone has been very good winning in both runs back and although he drops in grade, he rises 5kg from a wider draw. Singapura gets a gear change and is in a more suitable race for him. He’s a chance at big odds.
Ray Thomas: In a tough opener, I’m going to have something on Acceber at odds. I know he is eligible for easier races but he hasn’t been beaten far in recent starts and gives the impression he will enjoy the mile. There are plenty of dangers including Karmazone who is in great form, Onemore Sapphire is also in good touch and Chappelli can run a race at odds.
RACE 2: TAB HIGHWAY (1000m)
Dufficy: Salire has been freshened up with a nice trial win since his last start. He should be in the finish here with that form around Opal Ridge. Miss Kirribilli is a lightly raced mare resuming but she looked good in her Wagga trial. She did a great job in her first race in preparation getting into a Highway at her fourth start. She will run well with no weight. Stablemates Pretty Woman and Feel The Knight are particularly well placed in this race.
Thomas: I’m with Salire for all the reasons you mentioned, Ronnie. He’s building a consistent record and will be finishing strongly. Trainer Cameron Crockett can quinella this race with Limited Reality the main danger to stablemate Salire. Limited Reality was unbeaten in three starts then needed the run when resuming off a long spell last start. He’s also been tuned up for this with a barrier trial between runs. Prince Nicconi also has Opal Ridge form but is drawn right off the track. Mystery Lad has plenty of speed and is in winning form but is also disadvantaged by the draw.
RACE 3: NEW TAB APP HCP (1000m)
Dufficy: Quick Tempo resumes with no trial but gets in light in after the claim. He has very good 1000m form sprints very well fresh. Key Largo is first up and right down in the weights. This horse has a big finish and although he hasn’t won in two preparations, I loved his recent trial. Tristate didn’t quite run the 1200m right out with the big weight last week. He can go better at 1000m. Queen Bellissimo is a very sharp, capable mare. She is in a race to suit.
Thomas: Burning Crown is over the odds here and worth and each way gamble. He ran his best race for ages behind Kallos at Warwick Farm. Kallos has since been placed at Group 2 level at Caulfield. Burning Crown is very fit and will run another competitive race. Key Largo gets back in his races but he has a strong finish and invariably sprints well fresh. The Bopper and Queen Bellissimo are both smart sprinters with good first-up records.
RACE 4: THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE HCP (1300m)
Dufficy: Anyone who saw Saturn Star’s trial win beating Lost And Running the other day will want to be with him here. He was impressive winning his debut. He was scratched at the barriers the other day but looks ready to go. Razeta’s was a hidden run in a stronger race than this last start and she will be hitting the line strongly. Green Shadows has competed at the top level over winter and any confidence in the market should be respected. Hoover Lucy is very fit now third-up off a long break and the inside draw helps.
Thomas: It’s hard to tip against Saturn Star. He was very good on debut where he was particularly strong through the line then his trial was an absolute beauty. Promising sprinter and can maintain his unbeaten record. Deep Snow is an improving sprinter fitter for a solid first-up effort at Taree. He does enjoy soft tracks, too. The Chris Waller duo Amati and Robusto are fitter for recent racing.
RACE 5: THE BIG DANCE (1600m)
Dufficy: Sibaaq has returned in great order and he is primed third-up from a spell. He maps perfectly from the good draw and looks very hard to beat. Hosier has won both starts this spring but he will need luck from his outside barrier. Casino Kid is very well-weighted, he’s an underrated horse and is a good winning chance. Rustic Steel has been improved by recent racing and is a specialist miler.
Thomas: Casino Kid simply doesn’t know how to run a bad race. He gets back in his races and needs galloping room but he will be finishing faster than anything else in this race. Surf Dancer defeated Old Flame and Ellsberg in the Shannon Stakes two starts back and that is great form for this race. Bandersnatch and Hosier are the class runners but both have drawn right off the track.
RACE 6: THE LITTLE DANCE (1600m)
Dufficy: I am warming to Dr Drill. I know he has 62kg and the outside draw but he has had a trial and 38 days since the Shannon Stakes which was an eye-catching run. I feel this race is well within his capabilities. Two Big Fari is the big danger. He is flying again this horse without winning and the inside draw with his gate speed is a big advantage. Steely handles all conditions and this sets up well. The best longshot is Olympic Theatre who has form around Quality Time in the Port Macquarie Cup and with 52kg here he could surprise.
Thomas: Steely has had excuses both runs this campaign and I want to stay with him. He’s going to be at his peak for this race and will run a strong mile. I’ve also found Two Big Fari. He’s in very good form and has drawn to get the right run. Ita and Philipsburg are both racing in good form and will be hard to beat.
RACE 7: CHOISIR HCP (1100m)
Dufficy: I like Dragonstone. He has had the one run back, he comes out of that fast race at Caulfield, 1100m suits him better and he’s hard to beat. The danger is Clemenceau, he’s a lightly-raced four-year-old and drops 9.5kg on that good second at Moonee Valley last start. He’s very likeable at the short odds. Sky Command is a nice mare and although she had the bias in her favour last start, she is in form and any rain helps. Surreal Step can sprint well at big odds.
Thomas: Clemenceau is an emerging sprinter and gets his chance here. He’s been beaten by two smart types since resuming but this race sets up perfectly. There’s a stack of speed, he can sit just off them and with the claim, he’s has to carry only 50kg. He’s the one to beat. Dragonstone was solid first-up and will be improved. He has a very good record over this course and distance. Malkovich is very fast and watch for Through The Cracks to be finishing hard.
RACE 8: FURPHY HANDICAP (1300m)
Dufficy: The weight horse here is Cavalier Charlies. He’s a nice horse, he stuck to his task in The Kosciuszko and will be hard to beat but doesn’t want it too wet. Fender was terrific after a slow start in the Kosciuszko and he is right in the mix. Far Too Easy is a good genuine horse but has a big weight and wide barrier to overcome. Another One when too badly to be true first-up and can improve.
Thomas: I know Far Too Easy has to overcome his outside draw but he was very good running a close second in The Kosciuszko behind Front Page and he gets his chance to go one better. Cavalier Charlies and Fender both come out of The Kosciuszko where they both ran very well. I think the winner comes out of this trio. Super Helpful is an improving sprinter who could run a race at big odds.
RACE 9: SHARP EXTENSIVE IT HCP (1500m)
Dufficy: I like Zoushack, he is very reliable, he never runs a bad race and he has that lovely draw. We know he can carry big weights, too. I will keep a close eye on Miltary Mission first-up. I’m a big fan of this horse and although this is short of his best distance he is capable of causing an upset. Tamerlane has been freshened since not running out the mile last start and he is an improver. Bullfinch is a tricky horse but he got some confidence in Queensland last preparation and is one to follow.
Thomas: I’m happy to go with Turn On The Charm. He was good winning in Brisbane last start, he’s holding his form and gets in well after the claim. Zoushack carried the grandstand to win last start and he will get his chance from his good draw. Bullfinch for Frankie Dettori and Tamerlane should both be thereabouts.
RACE 10: CLEANAWAY HCP (1200m)
Dufficy: Ma And Pa was scratched from Saturday, he’s in a new stable off two good trials and if you go on his earlier form he would be near favourite for this race. Hard to knock an unbeaten horse in Norwegian Bliss and she is certainly the testing material. Mach Schnell has had his two trials and is from an in-form stable. Grand Rumore can pull a run out fresh.
Thomas: Norwegian Bliss has won her six starts, she handles all track conditions, and she looked sharp in her recent Hawkesbury barrier trial win. Talented mare, gets the claim and well drawn. She can win again. Bullet Rider did a good job first-up and will be only be fitter. Liberty Sun comes off a determined Randwick win and Mach Schnell is one to watch.
Originally published as Randwick tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy runner-by-runner Big Dance guide plus best bets and analysis
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