Racewatch: Shayne O’Cass’ race-by-race tips and analysis for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday

Form expert Shayne O’Cass dissects the 10-race card for the Group 1 Tancred and Vinery Stud Stakes Day at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday, presenting his tips and race-by-race analysis.

Form expert Shayne O’Cass analyses the 10-race card for Group 1 Tancred and Vinery Stud Stakes Day at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday, presenting his tips and race-by-race analysis.

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NOTE: Races are assessed for a Heavy track.

RACE 1: MIDWAY (BM72) 1300m

Super Bright is a two-time Midway winner and placed in a few others as well. Kerrin McEvoy rode her in that 1200m Midway win here on Coolmore Classic Day last year. Fast forward to the present and there were some positive signs in another 1200m Midway here last start. Wet track, no issue. Apollo Mission ran a huge race in last Saturday’s Championships Heat at Kembla. Has come back really well. So Good So Cool is a last start Midway winner here.

Bet: Super Bright each-way

Super Bright wins the opener at Rosehill today for @ndoyleracing and @KPMcEvoy!@aus_turf_clubpic.twitter.com/bUc0jiXNGe

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) March 16, 2024

RACE 2: ROSEHILL BOWLING CLUB BAILLIEU 1400m

Black Caviar’s ‘nephew’, Nepotism, was close enough to the run of the race in the Todman when third to the Blue Diamond runner-up and subsequent Golden Slipper runner-up. Oh, and he was on debut there too. Going to eat up 1400m and is bred to excel on wet tracks. Sanctified has good form in three very strong races and is crying out for 1400m now and a mile after that. Ichiban Koji has a really bright future, short term and long.

Bet: Nepotism to win, quinella 2,3, box trifecta 2, 3, 7, 9

Tentyris WINS the Todman and books his spot in the Golden Slipper! 🏆

Wodeton makes the cut and is on his way to the Golden Slipper as well! pic.twitter.com/mqv5tJegFy

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) March 8, 2025

RACE 3: TOYOTA FORKLIFTS TULLOCH STAKES 2000m

King Of Thunder was bred to win a Derby (and a Sydney/Melbourne Cup). His dam is a Zabeel mare who was runner-up in the NZ St Leger. Her dam, Honor Babe, won a Sydney Cup. King Of Thunder is a half-brother to a Vinery Stakes placegetter and is a grandson of High Chaparral. So we know he will stay and I’d be confident he’ll handle the heavy with that pedigree. If the Derby is run on a Heavy 10, Tsitsipas is the bet of the carnival. He’s a chance here too if it’s Heavy.

Bet: King Of Thunder to win, Tsitsipas each-way, quinella 4, 6

King Of Thunder is just far too good at Rosehill for @JohnOSheaRacing! 💥@ZacLloydx gets on the board early! pic.twitter.com/oAeWzEpCCb

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) March 15, 2025

RACE 4: PRECISE AIR NEVILLE SELLWOOD STAKES 2000m

Ceolwulf’s only run on a Heavy so far was when he ran second in the ATC Derby that he should have won. Just as a matter of interest, every time I think of Ceolwulf, I think of Riff Rocket. What could he have won by now if he was still with us? As for Ceolwulf, I could come at him beating Via Sistina in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes so he’s got to be on top here. Our Gold Hope finally gets a wet track and 2000m.

Bet: Ceolwulf to win, Our Gold Hope each-way

Epsom winner Ceolwulf with a huge run wins the G1 King Charles III Stakes in front of a record crowd at Randwick!@PrideRacing | @SchofieldChad@aus_turf_club | @WorldPoolpic.twitter.com/28oRVnurKS

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) October 19, 2024

RACE 5: CINCOTTA CHEMIST EMANCIPATION STAKES 1500m

Harlem Queen did enough first-up in an on-pace decided 1400m here on March 15. Runner-up to Lady Shenandoah in the Flight Stakes at only her fifth outing. Granted, she didn’t quite match her stablemate Private Harry in the ‘trajectory department’ but where she got to from where she started and how fast she arrived, is a testament to her and her trainer Nathan Doyle. Clear Thinking is seemingly, surely, looking to get out to this trip now.

Bet: Harlem Queen to win

An outstanding win from a filly with a stack of ability! Congratulations to @ndoyleracing and the connections of Harlem Queen who proved far too good in race 6 today on the home track over 1200m. An exciting future indeed! pic.twitter.com/CdHkMATexa

— Newcastle Racecourse (@newcastleraces_) September 3, 2024

RACE 6: VINERY STUD STAKES 2000m

Treasurethe Moment is one for one on Soft, but it was a Soft 5 and in a Geelong Maiden. That doesn’t guarantee her anything if we are on a Heavy 8 or a 10 by race time but I just can’t bring myself to tip against her on her form and strike-rate. That said, if we are on Heavy, Yulong’s other filly Movin Out gets marked up big time from danger to serious threat. Hasn’t seen heavy but I fancy she’ll love it. Big run in the Phar Lap too.

Bet: Movin Out to place

Treasurethe Moment makes it six wins in a row! 🔥@[e-mail]/IDTI3k7QCz

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) March 8, 2025

RACE 7: EGROUP SECURITY STAR KINGDOM STAKES 1200m

Vivy Air is a daughter of Hellbent who his Group 1 on a Good 4 but he was a very good wet tracker himself and plenty of progeny are swimmers. As for Vivy Air, her best form (more or less) has been on Soft tracks so prepared to give her the benefit of the doubt on Heavy. This is her trip, she goes well at the venue and first-up figures are sound. Brudenell’s numbers are near faultless; he is a last start Listed winner at The Valley and the James McDonald booking is clearly significant. Mazu is Mr Muddie.

Bet: Vivy Air each-way

RACE 8: KIA TANCRED STAKES 2400m

Zarir has contested two Group 1’s in his 11 starts, one was the Prix Ganay where he was beaten a short-head, the other was the Grand Prix De Saint-Cloud in June 2024 where he was fifth to Tancred rival Dubai Honour. That’s all I can say. It is over to the market now. Here’s a call; Asterix will be second-favourite for the Sydney Cup after this. If you go along with that, you had better take a slice of the $15 beforehand. (Bet responsibly). Defending Tancred winner Arapaho is absolutely flying.

Bet: Zarir each-way, Asterix to win Sydney Cup ($15) and to place here ($4.50)

A second Prix Foy for IRESINE! 🇫🇷

The Japan Cup ninth wins the @paris_longchamp G2 for a second time, upsetting favourite Continuous.

pic.twitter.com/TWuuUihlao

— World Horse Racing (@WHR) September 15, 2024

RACE 9: RACING AND SPORTS DONCASTER PRELUDE 1500m

This looks an awful lot like the same line-up for the Muswellbrook Cup. Who knows how they’ll look on the day. Just for the sake of the argument; I have Lavish Empire on top (each-way) in the Cup and the Prelude. That’s followed by dual acceptor West Of Africa, Amenable (so unlucky in the Newcastle Stakes) and Berkshire Shadow who could instead be at Muswellbrook.

Bet: Lavish Empire each-way wherever he goes

GRINGOTTS wins the Big Dance💃!

A quinella for @cmaherracing in the $3 million feature but a 10/10 from @TommyBerry21 gets the Tamworth Cup winner home at Randwick over stablemate Vivy Air with Suparazi in third. @tabcomau@_TJCpic.twitter.com/1ggP5S0RQ0

— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) November 5, 2024

RACE 10: HKJC WORLD POOL (BM88) 1400m

There wouldn’t be too many better muddies racing on the entire card than Rhapsody Chic. We could be on a Heavy 10 by now which won’t trouble her any, she won on debut at Matamata by three lengths on a Heavy 10. Her other two were on Heavy 8s. Has been trialling well up here. Green Fly was easy to like on form and whatever else, but once you saw who is down to ride him, well, you have got to love him. That’s James McDonald by the way. Well Timed (Nash Rawiller and Kerry Parker) has good form on Heavy tracks. He’s $6 second fav for the Provincial/Midway Championship Final as it stands.

Bet: Rhapsody Chic to win

Rhapsody Chic gets in front late to score in the last at Caulfield! 💪@[e-mail]/i7GWKVjXLa

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) July 27, 2024

Originally published as Racewatch: Shayne O’Cass’ race-by-race tips and analysis for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday