Muswellbrook races: Preview, inside mail and best bets

Shen Gui is seeking just his third win at start No.3 but there’s a few things going for him at Muswellbrook on Sunday.

Dylan Gibbons rides Shen Gui at Muswellbrook. Picture: Getty Images

Shen Gui doesn’t win out of turn and his trainer Lou Mary said he was hard to take on trust but also can’t find any reasons why he won’t challenge for a win at Muswellbrook on Sunday.

The All Too Hard seven-year-old runs in a Benchmark 58 Handicap (1280m) late in the day and is searching for his third win at start 30.

His past four runs have been super without winning and hasn’t run more than a length and a half off the winner in each.

He’s coming off a close third placing here two weeks ago over 1500m and jockey Dylan Gibbons suggested to Mary that coming back in trip might be the key to him winning.

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“I hope it’s his day,” he said.

“The horse is racing well and Dylan Gibbons came off him the other day and said he’d like to ride him over a bit shorter at around the 1300m.

“He can go keen which is why he wanted to drop him back a bit in trip.”

Gibbons is on Shen Gui today and will ride him out of barrier 10 in a big field but the wide gate isn’t his only challenge.

“It’s up to him to get the job done and the horse is looking fantastic. The horse is a bit of a nightmare for jockeys no matter how good they are,” Mary said.

“Can do a few things wrong and over race a bit. Dylan got on really well the other day with him and told me he gave him a good feel and was going great.”

The Dark Knight has been placed in a 1750m event by Mary and he’s a bit similar in that he doesn’t win often but he’s been teasing the punters of late.

He’s had two placings and a close seventh in his past three runs and fitness won’t be an issue for the seven-year-old who will again be partnered by Mitchell Bell.

“He’s been consistent of late,” Mary said.

“He’s a bit limited but I believe we’ve got him going at his best now.

“He’s a horse who needs everything to go his way to win one but he’s very fit and is bright in the coat and working well so hopefully the rise in distance will help him and he should be competitive again.”

Dylan Gibbons has a good book of rides at Muswellbrook. Picture: Getty Images

Kaisa has her first start for Mary after coming to him from the Brett Cavanough yard where she had just the one run in September last year when ninth behind the smart Ang Pow.

“She was a very immature filly when Brett had her and the owners decided to give her time,” Mary said.

“She’s a bit one-paced but she worked her way to the line in her trial the other day and she’s looking fantastic and is doing everything right on the track.”

Kaisa runs in the opener over 1500m and Mary thinks it will suit her fresh.

“She’s bred to go over a fair bit of ground and she gives me the impression she will get over 1800 and 2000m,” Mary said.

“I think 1500m is a good starting point for her and if she runs top three on Sunday first-up I’ll be pleased with her.

“I picked this race out for her a while ago and it doesn’t look overly strong, especially for a maiden over 1500m so hopefully the mare can produce something.”

BEST BETS

BEST BET

Race 3 No. 9: Sunchaser

She sprinted well fresh to win over a shorter trip than she likes and that was a bonus as she gets up to a distance that she should relish.

NEXT BEST

Race 4 No. 7: Quilting

She won on debut before going for a spell and three barrier trials should have her in good shape to keep her perfect record intact.

VALUE BET

Race 2 No. 1: Titration

He’s got an awkward gate which might push his price out but he’s coming into this in good shape fourth-up off an improved run last time.

QUADDIE

Race 4: 4, 6, 7

Race 5: 2, 4, 5, 13

Race 6: 3, 6, 9

Race 7: 2, 4, 5, 7

TRAINER TO WATCH

Sue Grills sends a good team here today with the likes of Maly Malt and Lavish Lady looking well placed to win their races.

JOCKEY TO WATCH

Rides of Dylan Gibbons on Quilting, Willinga Karisma and Shen Gui are going to be important in their winning hopes.

INSIDE MAIL

RACE 1

Golden Button went down in a photo finish last start at Port Macquarie and is back to his home track now. He’s run a stack of good races without winning do to his off speed pattern but he raced forward last start and it all but paid off and he’s got the gate to be in the first three in the run here and with cover so look for a big run. Kaisa goes straight up to 1500m fresh and might need the run before getting up over more ground but she should keep coming at them. Starliner had a stack of traffic in front on her here on debut over this trip two weeks ago before getting clear and charging home. She might need to be ridden cold again from the wide gate.

Bet: Golden Button to win

RACE 2

Nicator has a wide draw but can be ridden cold and has done well fresh in the past and should be ready to go off two trials. Our Boy Malcolm can get a smother from the gate and follow the back of one which is probably how he’s best ridden and he will look to nab them late but he’s becoming a bit of a tease. Titan Star has run well here in the past and has a favourable draw but he does have the habit of placing rather than winning but a win in this race wouldn’t surprise. Titration hasn’t done much in two runs back but has also run in much stronger races than this one so he gets his chance now.

Bet: Titration to win

RACE 3

The Dark Knight has only won once in 20 starts but has been finishing just in behind the winner at his past three so if he’s going to win again this might be the day, especially if the track dries out. Bob will be on the speed from the inside barrier and loving the sting out of the ground and this is his trip. Sunchaser won fresh over 1400m which was a bonus given she was there off only won trial and is looking for today’s extra ground. She ran second-up last prep so look for her to go on with it now and not be flat from the fresh sprinting effort and she performed on the heavy last time in.

Bet: Sunchaser to win

RACE 4

Quilting won on debut at odds on at Taree in June and was spelled soon after. She’s had three trials to get ready for 1000m fresh as the cross-over nose band goes on for the first time. Lavish Lady got better at her first preparation and ended it with a big win at Tamworth and is first-up off no trial but you’ve got to respect the stable. Movin’ Denman almost beat Jacenza two back and its come out and won since and if he can get some luck from the draw he’s right in this. Demitasse won fresh last time in and trialled up nicely in behind Quilting.

Bet: Quilting to win

RACE 5

Willinga Karisma will likely get back again from the wide gate and be flashing home third-up and she raced here last start so is familiar with the track and has a strong stable behind her. Canny Prospect might be able to be positive from the draw if he jumps well but he can also take a sit so the ride is going to be key here from a wide gate. Dante Alexander has drawn well and leads of box seats from gate two and should get his best chance to finally break through but patience is wearing thin after 19 runs without success. He’s placed nine times though.

Bet: Willinga Karisma to win

RACE 6

Maly Malt couldn’t catch a runaway leader last start but still ran second off a four-week break and, importantly, gets back onto a track with much more give in it which is to her liking so it’s a whole new ball game for her. Tidal Rush got stuck in behind them last start but ran on. The win two back was a half-length victory over a non-winner so the form is questionable but he likes soft ground and has a good gate. Leading Lady ran less than four lengths off the Stakes performed Roots two back in town so that’s the best form here by a mile.

Bet: Maly Malt to win

RACE 7

Tough Case has a good enough gate here and is knocking on the door off two second placings and he has from at this track and the wetter the better. Dynastic will likely take a sit from the wide drawn and with luck he has the ability to swoop past them and win late but the tempo must be strong. Hard To Dismiss is in the same boat but doesn’t want it heavy. Timerox is the interesting runner given he could go forward or back from the gate. See how the track is playing on the day here.

Bet: Tough Case to win