Shayne O’Cass’s race-by-race tips, analysis for Kembla Grange on Saturday

Racenet and The Daily Telegraph’s Shayne O’Cass analyses the 10-race card for The Gong Day at Kembla Grange on Saturday, presenting his race-by-race tips and form assessment.

Hedged, pictured winning at Flemington in March, will take beating at Kembla on Saturday. Picture: George Sal / Racing Photos

Racenet and The Daily Telegraph’s Shayne O’Cass analyses the 10-race card for The Gong Day at Kembla Grange on Saturday, presenting his race-by-race tips and form assessment.

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RACE 1: HIGHWAY HANDICAP (Class 3, 1400m)

SUNCHYME (17), the three-quarter-sister to Sunlight, gives every indication that she is ready to peak. The Keith Dryden trained mare is third-up, 14-days after a close and closing third in a 1200m Highway. Be warned, this one is much better quality. Exhibit ‘A’ being Ortensia’s granddaughter GENTILESCHI (4) who paid for her 14 of 15 draw in that Highway at Rosehill two weeks ago, The 1400m suits better. Got to have ASSOCIATE (1) in there even with the horrible draw; he is a barnstormer at least.

BET: Sunchyme to win.

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RACE 2: MIDWAY BENCHMARK 72 (1400m)

ALL MACHIAVELLIAN (13) has raced 36 times, 19 of those have been here at Kembla; two wins, six placings included. The Robert and Luke Price trained gelding was much better to the eye, and on the clock, than his first-up sixth reads. Trialled since. Good draw/better trip today. JUSTELA (10) – a Kerry Parker local – was the Black Booker out of that Rosehill Midway two weeks ago. Well, her and MONTE SUPREME (12) (another of the Price team).

BET: All Machiavellian each-way.

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RACE 3: BENCHMARK 78 (1000m)

ANGARA (12) has a little bit of X-Factor. The son of Frankel has won three races, one by five, another time by three and a half. He also ran third in a Provincial Championship Heat at Gosford one day. Taking him on trust, buoyed by his two trials since his 10th of 11 to Briasa. Fair to say PISANELLO (4) is a whole lot more reliable than Angara. The James Cummings mare has won 4 from 10 and is on a hat-trick after WF and Flemington (huge) wins. ANGEL FUND (13) could run home hard late.

BET: Angara each-way.

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RACE 4: FILLIES & MARES BENCHMARK 78 (1200m)

LEFT FIELD (7) is, and this is not a sleight, a fairly one-dimensional horse. She gets back in her races but nothing ever finishes faster than her, even when she is beaten. Even on debut when she took ground off the race winner, Kimochi. It all comes down to tempo, timing, track fairness. A good deal of that goes for GENTLY ROLLED (2) as well. The Bryce Heys trained mare has run well in two very strong races. This is WOOLOOWIN (6)’s biggest test but she keeps coming up with the right answers.

BET: Left Field to win, quinella 2,7.

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RACE 5: BENCHMARK 78 (2000m)

KENYADA (9) races in the same colours as her multiple stakes-winning grand-dam, Shania Dane. This Chris Waller trained daughter of the Chris Waller trained Kermadec has a tidy strike-rate of two wins and four placings from 10 starts. She was also fourth in the Adrian Knox at this same trip which she is desperate for. MODESTY (7) was brilliantly ridden by Joao Moreira to win at Rosehill over 1800m. Surely, 2000m is no negative today? Big watch on The King’s horse, GILDED WATER (11).

BET: Kenyada to win, box trifecta 1,7,9,11.

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RACE 6: BENCHMARK 78 (1400m)

BLAZING HARRY (13) is entitled to a huge amount of credit for that win on Big Dance day. It was his first run in NSW, he has 61.5kg, barrier 13 of 14 – and won by a length a half, without really turning too many hairs. Just for the record, he was second to Steparty at career start number two. SALTCOATS (3) looks dangerous here; no trial but goes well fresh and spelled off a P.B in the Tulloch Stakes. RAPBIDASH (15) sets herself some tasks in her races but can really find the line.

BET: Blazing Harry to win, quinella 3,13.

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RACE 7: BENCHMARK 88 (1600m)

CAFE MILLENIUM (4) was balloted out of The Gong which is a shame. Not saying he would have won but he is one of those horses that can just jump up out of nowhere and blouse them all. You could make the case to argue he is the best credentialed horse in the race; third in a Randwick Guineas, fourth to Encap in a Ming Dynasty. If there is one horse racing today that flat-out deserves a win, it is ESTADIO MESTALLA (2). Could almost say something similar when it comes to CHICA MOJITO (14).

BET: Cafe Millenium each-way, quinella 2,4.

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RACE 8: GROUP 3 THE GONG (1600m)

ENCAP (6) has had a few near misses, maybe not all that ‘near’ in terms of lengths from the winner but he has run some almighty races in some almighty races. Just a quick recap, he won the Theo Marks before one of those almighty beaten runs in the Alan Brown and as for the Golden Eagle 11th of 20, he was coming again late. Barrier 1 probably didn’t help that day, will 19 on Saturday? LEKVARTE (9), the fourth generation descendant of Toy Show, is a five-times mile winner and simply outstanding in the Empire Rose against some of the best miler mares in the business.

BET: Encap each-way, Lekvarte each-way, exacta 6 to beat 9, Daily Double 1st Leg (6), 2nd Leg (11).

• Clinton Payne’s The Gong tips, runner-by-runner form assessment

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RACE 9: GROUP 3 THE WARRA (1000m)

HEDGED (3) boasts four wins and four placings from 11 starts. As well as that, the son of Capitalist was fourth to Veight in the McNeil at Caulfield early on and fifth to Estriella in the Sunlight Classic at Flemington subsequently. Trialled like an absolute bomb at Randwick on November 11. Drawn to win – if good enough. Assuming this is going to be a very, very fast and high pressure 1000m, we have to then presume that nothing will come faster from off the speed than DRAGONSTONE (1), who was third in the 2022 Warra.

BET: Hedged to win (best bet).

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RACE 10: COLTS, HORSES & GELDINGS BENCHMARK 78 (1200m)

LORD OF BISCAY (11) is, IMHO, the market-watch horse of the entire Kembla card tomorrow. The Kris Lees trained gelding is most certainly good enough, talent-wise, to win this and better races too this preparation and what has me excited (given I tipped him first-up at his Aussie debut when he ran a cracking fifth) is that he has trialled better leading in this time. DISNECK (12) was very good first-up on Big Dance day, he’ll be charging late again. So too GENERAL SOHO (13).

BET: Lord Of Biscay to win, box trifecta 4,11,12,13.

Originally published as Shayne O’Cass’s race-by-race tips, analysis for Kembla Grange on Saturday