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Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s race-by-race tips and analysis for 2024 The Gong Day at Kembla Grange: $6 best bet

Ron Dufficy thinks the bookies have got it wrong on The Gong Day at Kembla Grange, with a juicy price on offer for his best bet. Get Ray and Duff’s race-by-race tips and analysis.

Ray Thomas
9 min read
November 22, 2024 - 12:08PM
Left Field, pictured winning at Newcastle in March, is Ron Dufficy's best bet of the day at Kembla Grange on Saturday. Picture: Bradley Photos
Left Field, pictured winning at Newcastle in March, is Ron Dufficy's best bet of the day at Kembla Grange on Saturday. Picture: Bradley Photos

Racenet and The Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy debate the chances in all 10 races, including The Gong, at the Kembla Grange stand-alone meeting on Saturday.

Ray Thomas (left) and Ron Dufficy.
Ray Thomas (left) and Ron Dufficy.

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• Racewatch: Shayne O’Cass’s race-by-race tips and analysis for The Gong Day at Kembla

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DUFF’S BEST BET
Race 4 No.7 LEFT FIELD

• EXPERT TIPS: Professional punter James Molony’s race-by-race tips and analysis for Kembla Grange on Saturday

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RACE 1: HIGHWAY HANDICAP (Class 3, 1400m)

Ron Dufficy: This is a deep Highway. I’m looking for horses running on and I think ASSOCIATE (1) might be the one. I know he has a big weight first-up but his trials have been great and he will be hard to hold out at decent odds. GENTILESCHI (4) gets another chance. When she resumed, the wide draw and shorter trip was against her but with a quieter ride and gear change she will be running on strongly. MORITZ GIRL (11) is massive odds considering her good run first-up. FLYING IMPALA (8) is a huge watch here. He was under a hold in a recent trial and showed nice talent last preparation.

Ray Thomas: I’ve gone with SUNCHYME (17) in a very open race. She was held up at the top of the straight then worked into the clear and hit the line strongly for a close third in a Highway at Rosehill last start. She should be at her peak after two runs from a spell and is drawn to get the right run. Good value at near double figure odds. GENTILESCHI (4) is a promising mare and she will be finishing fast. KING OF SPADES (5) wasn’t beaten far at Rosehill, he’s fitter for recent racing and gets in well after the claim. FIORSUM FRED (10) was a close fourth when resuming at Rosehill and is over the odds.

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RACE 2: MIDWAY BENCHMARK 72 (1400m)

Dufficy: I think this looks a nice race for LEANDRA (14). She has been ticking along nicely, beautiful map for her and she is a great value chance. JUSTELA (10) caught the eye warming up late last start with this race in mind. She’s a local who should run well. MISS HADES (2) was much better up in distance at her third run back and should hold that form now. DIRECT FIRE (6) looked great winning his lead-up but he has a bit of work to do from the wide draw.

Thomas: MISS HADES (2) ran a much improved race when a close third at the Rosehill midweeks last start and she does look well placed here. From the inside barrier, she will get every chance and should be in the finish. BYRON (8) is another working his way back into form and the draw suits. He’s a good each way chance. The stablemates MONTE SUPREME (12) and SATNESS (7) are capable of running competitively in another very open race.

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RACE 3: BENCHMARK 78 (1000m)

Dufficy: Hard to go against PISANELLO (4). He has had two great wins since resuming, he’s progressive and looks hard to beat. He did a sensational job from the inside draw down the straight at Flemington last start when that wasn’t the place to be. The dangers include ANGEL FUND (13) who can run on at odds. Her two runs back have been solid and she should be competitive. TRISTATE (1) has a big weight and is back to 1000m but he is going well. DUKE OF BRONTE (11) is very fast and impressed winning the Highway first-up but he does have company up front here.

Thomas: PISANELLO (4) was brilliant at Flemington winning the closer on Cup Week, scoring his second win from as many starts this spring. Promising Godolphin sprinter who boasts a powerful finish and is ready to make it a hat-trick of wins. DUKE OF BRONTE (11) led all the way to win at Randwick when resuming and he will give his rivals something to chase here. TRISTATE (1) is in top form but his 62kg impost is a leveller. OUTISHKA (6) ran very fast time to win over 900m at Muswellbrook and is racing well.

• EXPERT TIPS: The Gong, Railway Stakes and The Meteorite

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RACE 4: FILLIES & MARES BENCHMARK 78 (1200m)

Dufficy: I’m very keen on LEFT FIELD (7). She should be near favourite as I feel she wasn’t suited getting back at Rosehill 1100m in a stop-start race last start. The blinkers go on today, up to 1200m with speed on she will be charging home and prove hard to beat. HARRY’S BAR (8) is underrated and was great when losing narrowly when resuming. She is nicely set up on her home track. WOOLOOWIN (6) is a nice mare who rounded them up well when resuming to keep her good record intact. She is heading in the right direction. GENTLY ROLLED (2) loomed up then knocked up last start and might be ready to hit her peak here.

Thomas: WOOLOOWIN (6) showed her quality to reel in her rivals late and win first-up at Kensington. Emerging mare with three successive wins from just four starts and she will be even better suited on the bigger Kembla track. GENTLY ROLLED (2) started favourite at Randwick and loomed up as a likely winner before finishing a close fourth. She has won third-up in successive preparations and looks hard to beat here. HARRY’S BAR (8) is lightly raced but shows promise and she made Wooloowin work hard to beat her last start. She is definitely in the mix. LEFT FIELD (7) is set up to run well.

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RACE 5: BENCHMARK 78 (2000m)

Dufficy: GILDED WATER (11) is a massive query. He trialled well, the market likes him and he obviously has talent winning his maiden by seven-and-a-half lengths in England. MODESTY (7) looked a real improver after an ordinary parade winning second-up so there is only upside from here on. ALALCANCE (4) was very impressive at her Australian debut but her two trials since have been very one-paced which has put me off a little. BE REAL (12) scored a strong win last start and might handle the class rise.

Thomas: GILDED WATER (11) stays under consideration for all the reasons you mentioned. I thought he showed plenty in his trial. ALALCANCE (4) bolted in at her Australian debut but it’s two months between runs although she has been kept up to the mark with those two trials. MODESTY (7) won well second-up and there is more improvement to come from him. NAVAL COMMISSION (2) is fitter for two runs from a spell and will be competitive.

• King Charles III’s horse Gilded Water adds royal flavour to Kembla meeting

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RACE 6: BENCHMARK 78 (1400m)

Dufficy: I’m pretty keen on MIDNIGHT OPAL (10), I’m sure he will run well. The blinkers go on third-up and he is ready to win. The 1400m suits and this is a perfect opportunity to get another win. ALLAPERCANTO (14) I thought ran very well in a slowly run race first-up and she will go close here. BLAZING HARRY (13) is highly rated and he created a good impression winning with a big weight at his first Sydney run. SALTCOATS (3) is trained by Chris Waller and it is unusual for him to run a horse first-up without a trial so he is a big market and yard watch.

Thomas: BLAZING HARRY (13) drew wide but got across and had the run of the race before forging clear under 61.5kg to win easily at Randwick. Promising sprinter better suited at 1400m and although up in grade he does drop 5.5kg. ALLAPERCANTO (14) ran very well when resuming to finish a close third at Rosehill and she does look well placed here. I’MINTOWIN (1) is also entered for Canberra on Sunday and is a chance in either race. SALTCOATS (3) was placed at Group 2 level over 2000m when last in work and although this is short of his best, he can sprint well fresh.

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RACE 7: BENCHMARK 88 (1600m)

Dufficy: TAVI TIME (3) with the claim is very fit and just has to put his best foot forward, Ray. If he has no excuses in the run he’s going to be hard to beat. HOLLYWOOD HERO (13) ran into dead ends galore last start and probably should have won. I’m not giving up on CHICA MOJITO (14) as she was slow out and left with plenty to do last start. She drops 4kg here. ESTADIO MESTALLA (2) doesn’t win often but is paying the price for his consistency at the weights although he has drawn well.

Thomas: TAVI TIME (3) had every possible chance in the Big Dance but still stuck to his task when fourth to Gringotts. This is easier and gets the advantage of a 3kg claim. He’s the one to beat. ELETTRICA (11) is an underrated mare in good form who has drawn to get the right run and appeals as an each way chance. ESTADIO MESTALLA (2) is close to a win and is suited. CHICA MOJITO (14) hit the line hard when second behind Need Some Luck at Rosehill and she’s nearing a win.

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RACE 8: GROUP 3 THE GONG (1600m)

Dufficy: I can’t see a designated leader so I am looking at the map and the horse that is likely to get the right run is STEPARTY (11). He’s an underrated horse who is backing up from a Group 1 placing behind Kimochi in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes last week and he looks back on track. TERRITORY EXPRESS (3) gets back and if they go slow early it will make it hard for him. But the big straight and 1600m is perfect for him. LEKVARTE (9) has an explosive turn of speed on her day. I will throw in OSIPENKO (8). I swore off him for life but he went forward last start and wasn’t too bad. He was very good in this race last year as favourite.

Thomas: TERRITORY EXPRESS (3) had zero luck in the Five Diamonds and I’m sure he would have won with clear galloping room in the straight. He has to come back slightly in trip to 1600m and the lack of tempo that you mentioned, Ronnie, is a concern, but he’s bursting to win a race. GRINGOTTS (1) overcame a wide draw and was dominant in the Big Dance. He’s up in weight but is still the one to beat. LEKVARTE (9) won the Angst Stakes brilliantly then ran on well at Group 1 level at Flemington and that form reads well for this race. WATERFORD (12) raced in restricted room from the top of the straight in the Little Dance and is worth another chance.

• Clinton Payne’s The Gong tips, runner-by-runner form assessment

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RACE 9: GROUP 3 THE WARRA (1000m)

Dufficy: Good, deep race. I’ve settled on the Victorian HEDGED (3). He is lightly-raced, trialling well and has the best form coming out of the Arrowfield Stud Stakes behind Joliestar last preparation. DRAGONSTONE (1) was as soft as you like going forward and owning the race last start. He’s coming back to 1000m but is adaptable. IOWNA MERC (7) is trialling up brilliantly and is ready to charge home. BRUDENELL (2) has an inside draw and will be hard to hold out ducking through late.

Thomas: IOWNA MERC (7) hasn’t won for 18 months but has run some good races at stakes level during this period. He’s a talented sprinter who was dynamic winning a recent Warwick Farm barrier trial. He invariably sprints well fresh and will be finishing fast. FLEETWOOD (10) is another with a proven first-up record and he’s also looked good at the trials. DRAGONSTONE (1) and HEADWALL (9) both come off impressive last start wins and will be hard to beat.

• ‘There to run a big race’: Merc tuned up for The Warra

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RACE 10: COLTS, HORSES & GELDINGS BENCHMARK 78 (1200m)

Dufficy: A bit of a guess but I am leaning to LORD OF BISCAY (11). He had two runs in Australia last preparation, he’s been gelded since and his trials have been nice. From the inside draw I think he is going to be popular. STARMAN (9) did enough first-up after having only one trial going into the race and he looks well placed. BOJANGLES (3) wasn’t suited by the short course first-up but 1200m is much better for him. IRON MAN (4) has had a busy schedule but deserves a change of luck.

Thomas: I’ve landed on BOJANGLES (3) each way. He was scratched from Newcastle last week when he drew wide and although he hasn’t had much luck at the barriers again if he gets the right run he will be in the finish. RESTONICA (16) ran into the in-form Spanish Fox at Warwick Farm but he’s racing well and is value odds. IRON MAN (4) is genuine and close to a win. DISNECK (12) ran well when resuming and has come up favourite in a tough closer.

Originally published as Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s race-by-race tips and analysis for 2024 The Gong Day at Kembla Grange: $6 best bet

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Original URL: https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/horse-racing/nsw-racing/ray-thomas-and-ron-dufficys-racebyrace-tips-and-analysis-for-2024-the-gong-day-at-kembla-grange-6-best-bet/news-story/4b5b215553108bb43387d7d1ec5fc063