‘Leave me right out of Kovalica’: Doubts on Doomben Cup favourite

Matty and Benny chat about I Wish I Win becoming costly for punters, the injuries sustained by jockeys in race falls, female hoops riding the card in Adelaide, plus they look towards Doomben Cup Day on Saturday.

Every Thursday, News Corp Australia’s national racing editor Matt Williams and senior racing writer Ben Dorries chat all things horse racing.

Matty (left) and Benny (right) love racing banter.

MW: Benny, how great was it to see Bella Nipotina land a big one in the Doomben 10,000. She’s amazing. It was her sixth run for the prep after running in the Lightning, Newmarket, William Reid, TJ Smith and The Quokka. A slotholder would be crazy not to snap her up for The Everest. Imagine if it’s wet, too. I Wish I Win had his chance. He’s now gone more than 13 months without a win. He’s a great horse, but the punters must be running out of patience?

BD: Yup. Even Peter Moody said losing can become a habit for horses. I couldn’t be on him as favourite in the Group 1 Kingsford Smith Cup next week. He got a good run on Saturday, admittedly maybe not in the absolute A-grade section late in the race, but was run down by Bella Nipotina who conceded him many lengths after coming out of the barriers like a snail. Moody has floated a gear change with blinkers potentially going on I Wish I Win, but leave me out. He’s really good, but not in the exceptional form he once was. Reigning Kingsford Smith champ Think About It ($5) and progressive Tony Gollan galloper Antino ($8) are the ones I want to be with at this stage next Saturday.

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Bella Nipotina (right) mows down I Wish I Win to win the Doomben 10,000. Picture: Grant Peters — Trackside Photography.

MW: There have been a few jockeys suffering back, rib and neck injuries in recent falls. Anthony Cavallo is one who’s just had spinal surgery following a fall in NSW earlier this month. This time last year, champion jockeys Shane Dye, Damien Oliver and Darren Beadman questioned the effectiveness of our current jockey vests saying they contributed to injuries. Racing Australia then hired an expert to complete a report, which has not yet been made public, despite them saying it should be completed by September last year. Some big jockey vest changes are imminent, but there’s some water to go under the bridge. Watch this space.

BD: I’m no expert, but every time you look at social media there seems to be a tweet informing us a jockey has taken a nasty tumble somewhere. But, I’ll tell you what I’m arguably even more concerned about — depression among racing participants. I reckon there’s a real epidemic out there. Depression isn’t specific to racing by any means, it’s a societal issue. However, racing’s ridiculously early starts, late finishes, the intense wasting for jockeys and the cutthroat nature of the game really bring it into play. I’m keen to do some investigation on this front later in the year, to see if we can shine the light. I lost my Dad to mental health issues when I was a teenager, so the Black Dog of depression is a subject I’m incredibly passionate about. It’s an important topic to talk about openly, like I did here for the first time a decade ago.

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Glamour hoops Shane Dye and Darren Beadman in 1997.

MW: For sure, mate. How great was it to see female jockeys ride the nine-race card at Morphettville on Saturday. It’s the first time in history that it’s happened at a metropolitan Saturday race meeting in Australia. A phenomenal achievement.

BD: You’ll see it more and more. The fairer sex are taking over the sport, especially in many country and regional areas and in the young apprentice jockey ranks in some states. You don’t have to be Sherlock Holmes to realise this, but Michelle Payne, and then Jamie Kah have created a huge impression among young females. And let’s face it, there aren’t many sports where men and women can compete on an even playing field. In the decades to come, there could potentially be more female than male jockeys. Bring it on.

READ | ‘I had to claw my way back, I’m not giving it away’: J-Mac’s big sacrifice

Can Kovalica finally break into the winners list?

MW: It’s the Doomben Cup on Saturday. Kovalica keeps teasing me like the Adelaide Crows — and it feels like he hasn’t won since the Crows last won a flag — but he’s clearly the one to beat. There was some mild criticism of his run in the Hollindale, but from where he was I thought he ran well on a Heavy 10, which isn’t his go. He’s finally drawn a good gate in the right race, and Nash can park him midfield one-off. Too many times recently, wide barriers have dictated Kovalica having to settle right back. That won’t be the case on Saturday providing he jumps OK. The step up to 2000m, a solid tempo and a drier track is ideal. It’s his race to lose, Chris Waller has him primed, and he might just gap them like he did in the Derby. I’ll be having a crack.

BD: Leave me right out of Kovalica. This is far from a vintage Doomben Cup, but I couldn’t step into him as favourite. I’ve been really taken by up-and-comer Fawkner Park, the Irish import who flies home like Superman in his races. This is a step up from what he’s been meeting, but I reckon he’s up to it. The tight Doomben track and the potential that he now wants longer than 2000m are the only things stopping me from having a proper bet.

READ | Caulfield, Melbourne Cups in play for Fawkner Park

Scarlet Oak wins at Newcastle.

MW: Plllleeeaaassse! Fawkner Park, who’s carrying 3½kg more than his narrow win in the Wagga Cup, might get within three lengths of Kovalica if he’s lucky. The Scarlet Oak/Molly Bloom clash in The Roses will be great to watch. It’s far from a two-horse race but they look the class runners, and both have drawn great barriers. I heard Waller talk about Scarlet Oak, and he has a huge opinion of her. Her last start win at Newcastle was arrogant, and she can go on with it. Eneeza looks the best bet of the day in the Magic Millions National Classic. She’s got loads of class, and has drawn perfectly. Put in, take out.

BD: If you think any two-year-old race around Doomben over 1050m is a put in and take out job, you’re sillier than I thought when you declared Autumn Angel “just about the bet of the year” in her first go around the tight Doomben track last week. It was a terrific run, though, from well back and she looks just about a moral to take out the Queensland Derby over 2400m at the big Eagle Farm track next week. This Saturday, the BRC Sprint offers the winner a golden ticket into the Stradbroke and it’s a full field of 16 good horses looking to make an impact. Fifteen of them boast a rating of 100 or above. I’m in the Yellow Brick camp. He went enormous when first-up and is ready to bridge the gap between potential and performance. He’ll explode, and zoom into one of the real Stradbroke fancies.

MW: Sometimes, the best horse in the race doesn’t win. Autumn Angel was a victim of how the race panned out, and a gun J-Mac ride on Tannhauser. She’s still a superstar, and she only grew her fan base. I might be lighter in the pocket, but you won’t be if you follow her in the Derby, and then into spring and beyond.

Originally published as ‘Leave me right out of Kovalica’: Doubts on Doomben Cup favourite