Kembla best bets, inside mail for Saturday, November 30, 2024

A Team Hawkes-trained gelding has just one placings from five starts but has been close a number of times and gets his chance to break through from an inside draw.

Altair I Am is well placed to break through for his first win at Kembla. Picture: Bradley Photos

Racenet and The Daily Telegraph form analyst Adam Sherry provides his best bets and race-by-race analysis for Kembla on Saturday.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

KEMBLA TIPS

BEST BET

Race 4 No. 4: Altair I Am

Nice effort first-up then went to town when fourth second-up. Well place to break through.

Smart Legend justifies the support!@KPMcEvoy in the saddle for Les Bridge. pic.twitter.com/aw5dhQvqtT

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) May 23, 2023

NEXT BEST

Race 8 No. 4: Smart Legend

Had six weeks between runs when fourth at Rosehill last start. Unbeaten here and hard to go past again.

VALUE BET

Race 3 No. 2: Zoe

Has improved with each run back from a long lay-off. At her peak now and is a winner at the trip.

BEST EXOTIC

Exacta Race 2: 1 / 4

QUADDIE

Race 5: 1, 3, 5

Race 6: 1, 2, 5

Race 7: 3, 6, 7, 8, 12

Race 8: 3, 4, 8

Leading jockey Ashley Morgan looks the one to beat in the TAB Jockey Challenge. Picture: Getty Images

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Ashley Morgan has a solid book of rides and looks hard to beat in the TAB Jockey Challenge.

INSIDE MAIL – KEMBLA

RACE 1: ITC FAMILY DAY JANUARY 4TH MDN PLATE 1000m

O’Invincible is a$500,000 Magic Millions graduate by Snitzel from Group 1 winner Viddora on debut. Held together when just pipped by Miss Backchat in their Nov 8 heat then raced away to score by four lengths in her Nov 19 trial. Lightly Sparkled was good first-up when fourth to Quartz Legend here two weeks ago and will take improvement from the run. Drawn ideally and will be prominent. Miss Backchat a Gary Portelli-trained filly on debut. Trialled well against O’Invincible.

Bet: O’Invincible to win

RACE 2: PAUL BRIDGE MEMORIAL HCP (C1) 1000m

Froebel Star raced very well in her first campaign with a second to Too Darn Lizzie in the Magic Millions Debut for fillies and a win from The Three Hundred and El Castello at Warwick Farm. Her two unplaced runs were in stakes company. Hasn’t been pushed in her two recent trials. Zoubeauty did have the best of runs from a wide gate on debut at Newcastle. Led from gate 1 at Muswellbrook for a big win over Toyger. All Too Lucky was held up at Nowra first-up. Can figure prominently.

Bet: Froebel Star to win

Froebel Star with a big photo 📸 finish in the first from Warwick Farm! @[e-mail]/HPbvuJFsEe

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) April 1, 2024

RACE 3: D&L INDOOR PLANT HIRE & GARDEN MAINTENANCE MIDWAY HCP (C1) 1400m

Zoe has had three runs back from a 10 month break and will be at her peak now. Led when a length-and-a-half fifth to Media Frenzy here on Nov 5 after a runner clipped her heels. River Pat was caught wide when sixth to Phenom at Wyong before battling away for second to Merry Mac Boy in a Bm 66 at Taree over 1250m. Drops back to a Class 1 and look like she will handle the step up to 1400m. Canadian Express hasn’t been too far away of late and will appreciate the wet conditions.

Bet: Zoe each-way

RACE 4: HIGGINS COATINGS MDN HCP 1400m

Altair I Am was doing his best work late when coming from near last to finish second behind Mahogany Girl when resuming at Hawkesbury. Battled away for fourth to Zan at Canterbury two weeks ago. Back to provincial grade and drawn ideally. War Star was beaten by a couple of handy ones when resuming when third to Classique Legend’s half-sister Candlewick and First Mission, who has since won, at Wyong on Nov 9. Simply Nutbush will take benefit from his first-up fourth to Sarrismo at Hawkesbury.

Bet: Altair I Am to win

Hot fav Little Jeanie takes the opener at Canterbury in a great start to the day for @mcacajamez and @cwallerracing!@aus_turf_clubpic.twitter.com/4KLouZ3D2d

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) April 17, 2024

RACE 5: RAINMAKER BUSHFIRE SPRINKLERS SUPER MDN HCP 1600m

Kotaishi looks well placed to break through for his maiden win. Finished just behind the placegetters at Kembla and on the Kensington before a close second to Zan at Canterbury. Existential Bob ran a much improved race with the nose roll on last start when coming from near last on the bend to finish third behind Energetic Legend over 1500m here two weeks ago. Look for another strong showing. Malbrook Castle was second in that race and will be thereabouts again.

Bet: Kotaishi to win

RACE 6: JJJ RACING (BM68) 1200m

Rapt came from last on the bend with a booming down the outside to win a Class 1 over 1600m on a heavy track at Scone. Stepped up to the Grafton Guineas and did the same thing with a near three length win. Resumes off two good trials without pressure. Gelatin also resumes from a spell on a couple of handy trials. Kicked off last campaign with back-to-back wins at Warwick Farm and Kembla on heavy ground. Scissor Me timbers and Hurricane Thunder have claims.

Bet: Rapt each-way

Rapt charges away to win the Grafton Guineas for Jason Deamer! pic.twitter.com/4K2Oluuvyz

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) July 17, 2024

RACE 7: TRISTAN TRIFFITT EXCLUSIVE ESTATE AGENTS MDN PLATE 1200m

Metaphorically was spelled after his debut third to Mawjood at Warwick Farm in winter. Raced a little keen behind the leader when resuming with a fifth to Scorching Legend at Canterbury two weeks ago. Will take benefit from the run. Magical Moments improved with each run in his debut campaign which culminated with a very good second to Overfull when coming from near last in the Inglis Challenge at Scone. Arriving Home has trialled nicely ahead of her debut.

Bet: Metaphorically to win

RACE 8: JJJ RACING CHRISTMAS PARTY (BM64) 1600m

Smart Legend is looking to maintain his unbeaten record here. Won his maiden over 1200m and then a Class 1 over 1400m two starts later. Kicked off this campaign with a sixth to Ravenclaw at Rosehill then had six weeks between runs when fourth to Little Beginnings over 1400m at Rosehill on Nov 13. Lightly-raced mare Our Sassy Lady comes up from Victoria with handy form. Was third over this trip at Kilmore last start and ready to peak third-up. Physicist worked to the line down the outside when third behind the promising Kahraba over 1800m at Hawkesbury last start.

Bet: Smart Legend to win