Kembla best bets, inside mail for Saturday, November 16, 2024

A Michael Freedman-trained colt will appreciate drop back in grade and can bounce back to winning form when he returns to the scene of his maiden win.

Insist can return to winning form with a drop back in grade. Picture: Bradley Photos

Racenet and The Daily Telegraph form analyst Adam Sherry provides his best bets and race-by-race analysis for Kembla and best bets for Bathurst and Gundagai on Saturday.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

KEMBLA

BEST BET

Race 5 No. 7: Insist

Won his maiden at this track first-up before jumping a couple of grades. Back to a Class 1.

NEXT BEST

Race 8 No. 3: Amusing

Just run down late on debut at Newcastle. Can go one better.

VALUE BET

Race 7 No. 4: Master Riley

Progressive gelding back from a let-up. Gets an ideal run from the good draw.

QUADDIE

Race 5: 2, 7

Race 6: 2, 3, 4

Race 7: 2, 4, 9, 10

Race 8: 2, 3, 4

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Keagan Latham has a nice book of rides and looks a good chance in the TAB Jockey Challenge.

Keagan Latham looks set for a good dat at Kembla. Picture: Getty Images)

BATHURST

BEST BET

Race 5 No. 2: Catchy Tunes

Handy win at Kempsey before a close second at Scone. Can notch a third career win.

GUNDAGAI

BEST BET

Race 7 No. 4: Lady Rozay

Won over this track and distance first-up. Can end the carnival on a high note.

INSIDE MAIL – KEMBLA

RACE 1

How Much Better raced outside the leader Irish Bliss and boxed on well in the straight to finish second just over a length away when resuming over 1300m at Newcastle. He will take good improvement from the run and looks suited stepping up to 1500m. Brazil was unlucky last start when severely checked in the straight before getting going again and finishing second to Invincible Emma at Newcastle. Drops back 100m which won’t worry him. Won at this track and trip the start before. Missile Defence won’t be far away.

Bet: How Much Better to win

RACE 2

Energetic Legend didn’t have much go right on debut here last month. After a bump at the start, he was eased well back to get cover and giving the leader and winner Just Feelin’ Lucky a huge start before working home for fourth. The second and third placegetters both won their next start. Happiness worked to the line okay before being eased late when fifth to Rotagilla first-up at Newcastle. Micro Magic will find this easier than her sixth to Strong Trade at Warwick Farm last start.

Bet: Energetic Legend to win

RACE 3

Inoue had trialled well and started an odds-on favourite when third to Iowna Benz over 900m on debut at Newcastle. Given no peace in front and only caught inside the final 100m when runner-up to Luxe Eternal over 1100m. Monte Braveheart ended last campaign with consecutive placings over 1500m and 1600m at Kembla. Kicked off with a fifth to Hellaine over 1200m on a heavy track here on Sept 28 when coming from well back along the inside as the field went to the outside rail. Given time to get over the run.

Bet: Inoue to win

🏇 @cwallerracing and @G1TySchil take the second at @hawkesburyrc with Luxe Eternal! pic.twitter.com/AjhbTUur4Z

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) October 17, 2024

RACE 4

King Of Dragons was green on debut when seventh to Mawjood on a heavy track at Warwick Farm and went for a spell. Has led all-the-way to win both his trials comfortably this time in. Can take catching from the good draw. I Am A Winner was run down by Island Dec on debut here before a fifth to Brave One at Randwick. Also won both his Rosehill trials this campaign. Our Little Star is the most experienced runner of the field with six starts for four placings. Runner-up to Midnight Harry this track and trip first-up last prep.

Bet: King Of Dragons to win

RACE 5

Insist scored a first-up maiden win here from Doralee then stepped up to Benchmark 68 and 64 at Warwick Farm and Hawkesbury when a couple of lengths off the winner. Back to a Class 1 and he can give this a shake. Llewellyn followed his Kembla maiden win with a seventh to Alabama State in a 1400m Rosehill Midway before a second to Hydrometer over 1200m at Wyong. Fire Tribe has just the one win when he charged home to beat Hanau and Xidaki over 1200m at Randwick last December.

Bet: Insist to win

RACE 6

Codetta ran on from well back when fourth to Cindersea on debut over 900m at Newcastle on June 22 before returning three weeks to win her maiden over 1200m. Sat outside the leader and given a shake up to win her Kensington trial on Nov 1. Cindersea settled midfield and was widest on the bend before running home strongly to beat Flying Argyle in that Newcastle race then sat outside the leader when fourth at Warwick Farm. Won her Kensington trial on the same day in fractionally quicker time.

Bet: Codetta to win

Riff Rocket's 2yo half-sister gets her first win over 1200m at her 2nd start at @NewcastleRaces today.

Codetta (2f Nicconi x Missile Coda) for @MFreedmanRacing
Like Riff Rocket, raced by breeder @[e-mail]/aUAEswJdGh

— Breednet (@BreednetNews) July 13, 2024

RACE 7

Master Riley won his maiden at Newcastle narrowly second-up before a fourth to Harlem Queen here. Bounced back with a handy win from Outlander on Oct 1. Back from a short let-up and will give a bold sight from the inside gate. Hydrometer raced back and wide before running on for second to Mogul Monarch at Hawkesbury first-up. Led all-the-way to beat Llewellyn at Wyong last time out. Goes to 1400m for the first time. Welcometobarbados and Your Not The Boss have claims.

Bet: Master Riley each-way

RACE 8

Amusing raced outside the leader on debut when a half-length second to Lady Savannah who got a rails run from behind the leader. She will be better for the experience. Rybakina was a neck second to Good Dort on debut at Canterbury before returning when fourth to the smart Extremely Hardys in July. Kept under a hold in her two trials. Glitterscript hasn’t been far away in her two runs this prep. Drawn nicely.

Bet: Amusing to win