Grafton preview: Tips, best bets and inside mail

Amirykal has had a frustrating start to her campaign but trainer Daniel Bowman expects a more positive result at Grafton on Sunday.

Daniel Bowen says Amirykal is ready to hit peak form at Grafton on Sunday. Picture: Susanna Freymark

Trainer Daniel Bowen has had to watch on frustratingly as Amirykal went around for her first two runs this time in but he might get more enjoyment out of her result on Sunday at Grafton.

The six-year-old mare runs in an Open Handicap (1300m) after sixth and seventh placing this time in and last time she was making her run along the outside rail at Murwillumbah which wasn’t ideal.

But she was still running on both times this prep and gets up to a more suitable trip on Sunday.

“All my horses were set for four months for Lismore Cup day and that got messed up a bit when they got washed out but they’re all ready to show a good hand now,” Bowen said.

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“She had a long time off. She was supposed to come in before we got the floods and didn’t then we had floods and she had a long time out.

“Her first two runs this time in may as well have been barrier trials. She went back first-up and was too far back and it happened again second-up when she got wide but came home well.

“We ended up following the wrong horse and getting back to second last under 60.5kg and by the time she got going she was in an impossible position.”

Bowen isn’t worried about the weather for Amirkal but more so where she gets to in the run under Ben Looker who jumps her out of barrier eight.

“She can handle it fast or heavy and she’s really come on from that run so I think she’s hard to beat now that she’s hitting peak form,” he said.

“We want to be closer in the run this time but from that gate (8) I’ll leave it up to Ben Looker.”

Beef Week Princess is very well placed in a Benchmark 58 Handicap (1590m) after two sixth placings this time in.

She too missed her target race this preparation but it doesn’t mean she’s not going to have success in Sunday’s event.

“She was my ace card on Lismore Cup day,” Bowen said.

“She going up from 1200m to a mile (1590m) but she is pretty clean winded and she goes well in the wet.”

Bowen is most confident in her out of all his runners on Sunday.

“She’s a big chance and she’s my best chance on the day. She’s going to get to a much higher class and this is a country-only race so she’s in the right race,” Bowen said.

“Last time in she ran second to Bahamut on Lismore Cup day and he’s since run second in a Highway and won at Doomben so that’s a good formline for this race.”

Spilt Jete is a horse who wants a drying track in the last race after running second last start at Lismore six weeks ago.

“He can handle it to a Soft 7 but he does flounder in a Heavy 10,” Bowen said.

“I’ve kept him fresh and it will all depend on how much rain we get on the day.”

MATT JONES’ TOP SELECTIONS

BEST BET

Race 3 No.5: BEEF WEEK PRINCESS

She’s well placed in a country-only race and is peaking now third-up and will be in a much better spot at the top of the straight from the better barrier.

NEXT BEST

Race 8 No.5: BETTER EXPLAIN

He won like a horse that had the ability to go on with it and win again up in grade and he’s had a very good grounding ahead of his racing career.

VALUE BET

Race 6 No.3: AMIRYKAL

She is better placed here to upset Dubai Tycoon after getting too far out of her ground at her first two runs this time in.

QUADDIE

Race 5: 1, 6, 11

Race 6: 1, 3, 10

Race 7: 4, 5, 7

Race 8: 3, 5, 6, 10

TRAINER TO WATCH

Stephen Lee’s Senshi Spirit, Sailing, More To Adore and See It Thru look well placed in their respective races.

JOCKEY TO WATCH

Luke Rolls looks to have some nice rides like Braithwaite, Here Comes Chum, Tobasco and Sea Commits.

Luke Rolls has a couple of winning chances at Grafton. Picture: Steve Holland

INSIDE MAIL

RACE 1

Sugar Road really improved off a debut run when sent out big odds on a wet track which he should get again here and is third-up so shouldn’t go backwards. Scotland is very fit now and just missed out last start when racing closer to the speed and that’s probably the plan again here. Orbital Speed has just missed at two of his past three but it was down in grade although the wet track might help. You just get the feeling Velvet Star is going to win one soon and is on a quicker back up now and back in trips helps.

Bet: Sugar Road to win

RACE 2

Weak race but More To Adore hasn’t been far off them in two of his past three and has improved this time in. Roman Rebel hasn’t been seen since a barrier trial at Port Macquarie in April but looked good in second behind a fairly handy type so must be a chance in this event despite the wide draw. It may mean he takes a sit in behind the speed then finishes it off well and the stable thinks he’s handy enough. Throwaparty is an interesting runner from Adelaide who had his moments and this is no doubt and easier assignment but the wet track must be an issue.

Bet: Roman Rebel to win

RACE 3

Daniel Bowen is very confident his horse Beef Week Princess can win this race third-up. She’s peaking now and in an easier race than she’s used to. From an inside gate it’s time to win. Full Press has been super consistent of late and looks very well placed here but a bog track would be a query. Senshi Spirit gets in with just 54kg on her back and that might be what wins her this given her previous form but she doesn’t win out of turn and has drawn awkward.

Bet: Beef Week Princess to win

RACE 4

Star Of Harada has just missed at his past two starts and drops a little in grade here so it shapes up well and an awkward draw can be overcome due to his gate speed. Tobasco is on a quicker back up here and he too has the speed to be in the first three in the run and he has a pretty good record at this track. Commandeering put in a shocker last time but is better than that so some punters will be willing to give him another chance here. Deepour wasn’t far off winning at the provincials last time in and is under a new trainer now and well placed in this grade.

Bet: Tobasco to win

RACE 5

Sea Commits has been racing well on the Gold Coast and at the Brisbane midweeks so is suitably placed here to breakthrough for her first win at start five after two seconds. Sirianni was good first-up from a wide gate on the Sunshine Coast and gets the gun run now out of barrier four and she too has been brought down here looking for something easier. Adelaide Fever found form third-up after struggling at provincial level and she’s staying up in this part of the state looking for her first win.

Bet: Sea Commits to win

RACE 6

Amirykal didn’t get much of a chance to win her first two runs this time in after getting too far back over shorter trips than she takes on today. She should be closer in the run now and have her chance. Dubai Tycoon shoots for three-straight but has a worse barrier now. He’s more than up to this grade and gets back anyway so look for him to pounce again late. Sailing bounced back down in grade last start and looks the leader here down in the weights and will give some cheek.

Bet: Amirykal to win

RACE 7

Lady Rain looks to be good enough to win this if she brings her best and she’s looking to bounce back after an uncharacteristic poor run last time. Quatum has placed at his past two and drops back two grades here after a third placing at Grafton last time and he should sit in behind the speed one off the fence with cover and get clear air in the straight to let down. Dimitri’s racing pattern means he’s never going to have a great winning record but will run on and go close many times.

Bet: Quatum to win

RACE 8

Annabel Neasham is taking her time with Better Explain who won on debut at Kilcoy. He would’ve taken plenty out of that gritty win and natural improvement makes him hard to hold out again. Split Jete needs a drying track while I Shot The Sheriff should handle any track conditions and he caught the eye last tart when coming from near last to run second at Coffs Harbour and the extra ground now helps. Will the confidence of a breakthrough win help Look A’like go on with it here?

Bet: Better Explain to win

Originally published as Grafton preview: Tips, best bets and inside mail