Every runner rated for the Victoria Derby
Three impressive last-start winners are the leading chances for the Victoria Derby as form analyst Brad Waters assesses every runner.
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News Corp form analyst Brad Waters looks at the chances of every runner in Saturday’s $2m Group 1 Victoria Derby (2500m) at Flemington.
1. SHARP ‘N’ SMART (3) – $3.90
Trainers: Graeme & Deborah Rogerson. Jockey: James McDonald 57kg
BRAD SAYS: Impressed with the way he lifted to win the Spring Champion Stakes in Sydney. On a seven-day back-up but the classy galloper must be respected.
2. BERKELEY SQUARE (5) – $3.40
Trainer: Dan O’Sullivan. Jockey: Craig Williams 57kg
BRAD SAYS: Ran on hard in the Caulfield Guineas and too strong around The Valley last week. He’ll run the trip and is unbeaten at Flemington. Great chance.
3. LET’SROLLTHEDICE (7) – $34
Trainer: Danny O’Brien. Jockey: Ben Melham 57kg
BRAD SAYS: His last two starts have been much better and was narrowly beaten in the Geelong Classic. This is harder but he’s a blowout chance.
4. MR MAESTRO (17) – $5.50
Trainer: Andrew Forsman. Jockey: Damian Lane 57kg
BRAD SAYS: Cannot fault his form since stepping up in trip and he handles wet or dry tracks. The draw makes it awkward for him but he’s a winning chance.
5. PERICLES (6) – $7.50
Trainers: James Cummings. Jockey: William Buick 57kg
BRAD SAYS: Lightly-raced stayer with enormous potential as shown by his effort at The Valley at only his third start. Each-way chance on Saturday but blackbook him for the autumn.
6. GRAND PIERRO (15) – $34
Trainer: Jason Warren. Jockey: Mark Zahra 57kg
BRAD SAYS: Sustained a long run when running on from the rear to win the Geelong Classic. The barrier means he’ll be giving better horses a big start in the Derby.
7. MANZOICE (8) – $23
Trainer: Chris Waller. Jockey: Michael Dee 57kg
BRAD SAYS: Developing type that wasn’t disgraced in the Spring Champion Stakes but this race might have come around a bit soon for him. Look for him in the autumn.
8. FOUJITA SAN (9) – $17
Trainers: Michael, Wayne and John Hawkes. Jockey: Jye McNeil 57kg
BRAD SAYS: His run was better than the placing suggests from a wide gate in the Caulfield Guineas. He’s jumping from 1600m to 2500m for the Derby but Hitotsu did it last year.
9. SKYPHIOS (14) – $51
Trainer: Rob Blacker. Jockey: Harry Coffey 57kg
BRAD SAYS: Qualified for the Derby by winning an 1800m race at Flemington in July and his sole focus has been this race. He’ll run the trip but his class is the query at level weights.
10. MURAMASA (4) – $15
Trainers: Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young. Jockey: Daniel Moor 57kg
BRAD SAYS: Outsprinted in the Stutt Stakes over 1600m at The Valley but relished the longer trip when a fighting second to Mr Maestro at Caulfield. Could continue to improve.
11. FEARLESS KNIGHT (11) – $81
Trainers: Kacy Fogden. Jockey: Brett Prebble 57kg
BRAD SAYS: Handled a big class rise in game fashion behind Mr Maestro at Caulfield last time but he’ll need to go to another level to break his maiden in the Derby. But is has been done before.
12. BERARDINO (10) – $41
Trainer: Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young. Jockey: Damien Oliver 57kg
BRAD SAYS: This bloke ran on well when finishing two lengths from Mr Maestro at Flemington but found himself in the worst part of the track at The Valley. Damien Oliver on is a plus.
13. DISTRUSTFUL AWARD (12) – $26
Trainer: Paul Preusker. Jockey: Dean Yendall 57kg
BRAD SAYS: This three-year-old is an emerging stayer with talent. He bolted in at Mildura before a solid effort behind Mr Maestro at Caulfield. The 2500m will be fine and he might be over the odds.
14. HIGHLAND BLAZE (13) – $201
Trainer: Jackson Pallot. Jockey: Liam Riordan 57kg
BRAD SAYS: This colt is improving but the Derby is a long way from a Bairnsdale maiden win. He’s a genuine stayer that could pick up some midfield prizemoney.
15. KING’S CROSSING (16) – $41
Trainer: Danny O’Brien. Jockey: John Allen 57kg
BRAD SAYS: Better effort when not far away in the Geelong Classic but he had his chance. Drawn awkwardly, which will make it tough for him but John Allen has a great record in Derbies.
16. LEHNDORFF (1) – $201
Trainers: Mark Newnham. Jockey: Josh Parr 57kg
BRAD SAYS: Won a Class 1 race in a small at Kembla Grange but that form won’t cut it in a Derby.
17. ABERFELDIE BOY (EM) (2) – $81
Trainers: Robbie Griffith & Mathew de Kock. Jockey: Not notified.
BRAD SAYS: Not far away in the Geelong Classic but this looks a tall order for him.
BRAD’S TIPS
1. BERKELEY SQUARE
2. SHARP ‘N’ SMART
3. MR MAESTRO
4. DISTRUSTFUL AWARD
Originally published as Every runner rated for the Victoria Derby
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