Early Oil: Buffalo River the best bet of Saturday’s Memsie Stakes card at Caulfield

Buffalo River can back up his promising Lawrence Stakes effort with a win while there could be a shock result in the Group 1 Memsie Stakes at Caulfield.

Bold frontrunner Buffalo River will be hard to run down when he steps out at Caulfield on Saturday. Picture: Michael Klein

Herald Sun form analyst Brad Waters takes an early look at Saturday’s big Memsie Stakes meeting at Caulfield.

BEST BET

BUFFALO RIVER (Race 4, No.2)

Buffalo River turned in an excellent fresh run behind Mr Brightside in the Lawrence Stakes and drops in class on Saturday. He’ll be hard to run down.

VALUE BET

CALLSIGN MAV (Race 8, No.6)

Callsign Mav resumes in the Memsie Stakes but he’s over the odds. His first-up record is strong, and he showed plenty of fight first-up last time in. He’ll be in this for a long way.

EARLY QUADDIE

2, 5, 7/2, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14/2, 4, 9/1, 4, 8, 10, 12

$100 flexi for 37.03 per cent

BIG6

2, 4, 9/1, 4, 8, 10, 12/3, 4, 7, 10/3, 4/1, 6, 11, 12/1, 5, 8

$100 flexi for 6.94 per cent

QUADDIE

Race 6: 3, 4, 7, 10

Race 7: 3, 4, 7, 12

Race 8: 1, 5, 6, 11, 12

Race 9: 1, 5, 6, 8

$100 flexi for 31.25 per cent

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In-form mare Spanish Tides could get the day off to a flyer for punters in the first race of Saturday’s Memsie Stakes meeting. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

RACE 1: NEDS PUNTERS TOOLBOX HANDICAP (2000m)

A soft track is likely for Caulfield on Saturday, but good weather is forecast. A tricky race starts the day but going with SPANISH TIDES (6) to provide punters with the perfect start to the day at good odds. She closed well over 1600m last time out and looks ready for a crack at 2000m. AMERICAIN ANGEL (9) is another that looks ready for 2000m and should run well again. STORM KING (12) is racing well in this distance range and should be thereabouts. PROTECTION MONEY (8) has come back well from long spell and should go close.

SUGGESTED BET: Spanish Tides each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Storm King $10 – $4.20

RACE 2: STOW STORAGE SOLUTIONS HANDICAP (1400m)

Field of eight mares remain after the scratchings but LADY OF HONOUR (5) can improve sharply on her sound first-up effort and has drawn to get every chance. SAIGON (7) closed well in two runs last time in and should go well again in this line-up. ZIMOWY (4) fought on well after racing wide to score at Flemington last time and races well on all surfaces. GROOVY KINDA LOVE (8) chased well when not far away first-up last time in and gets in with only 52kg.

SUGGESTED BET: Lady Of Honour to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Lady Of Honour $5 – $3.30.

RACE 3: EVERGREEN TURF HANDICAP (1400m)

This is probably the toughest race of the day with up to 10 winning chances. Going with HE’S THE REAL DEEL (2) for a small each-way play. He ran third at his only run last time in before going back to the spelling paddock. His fresh record is sound, and he’ll be strong late. CARDINAL GEM (14) was freshened after a good effort at Flemington last month and he won well here two runs back. ATTRACTABLE (13) was only run down late on this track second-up and the 1400m looks perfect now. LOGAN STREET LION (10) raced consistently last time in and could measure up fresh.

SUGGESTED BET: Small bet He’s The Reel Deal each-way

TAB MARKET MOVER: Munhamek $23 – $16.

Easy Sandown winner Aft Cabin will step up sharply in class in Saturday’s Group 3 McNeil Stakes at Caulfield. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

RACE 4: IVE > HANDICAP (1400m)

BUFFALO RIVER (2) drops in class after an excellent effort in the Group 2 Lawrence Stakes last time out and he’ll be fitter for that. He’ll go forward and will be hard to run down. GENTLEMAN ROY (9) flew last time in and has drawn to have every chance again. OPEN MNDED (4) is another that ran enough first-up and will be suited by the step to 1400m. JUST FOLK (1) is a talented galloper that was outsprinted first-up but will be fitter and well served by the longer trip here.

SUGGESTED BET: Buffalo River to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: I Wish I Win $10 – $7

RACE 5: H. D. F MCNEIL STAKES (1200m)

Super edition of the McNeil Stakes but it’s not one I’m happy to have a bet in. There are so many unknowns with most of these resuming and others making leaps in class. AFT CABIN (12) is one of those making big class jumps here but he looked outstanding with the way he accelerated at Sandown last time. CROSSWIND (4) produced contrasting efforts to score at both runs last time in and looks talented. ATLANTIS TYCOON (8) charged home to score here first-up last time in so watch for him late. ZAMBORGHINI (10) impressed in his wins last preparation. Another four runners could win without surprising.

SUGGESTED BET: None.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Aft Cabin $3.20 – $3.

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RACE 6: THE MCCAFE 1100 STAKES (1100m)

Interesting to see how STAR PATROL (10) measures up to open-age racing after his terrific winter campaign. His work at Caulfield on Tuesday morning indicated the Clinton McDonald-trained sprinter was ready to fire fresh. SHOOTING FOR GOLD (7) wasn’t disgraced down the straight at Flemington and will enjoy getting back racing around a turn. GENERATION (2) was scratched from The Valley last week and has drawn to have every chance. IN THE BOAT (4) has plenty of speed and can run boldly fresh.

SUGGESTED BET: Win bet Star Patrol

TAB MARKET MOVER: Generation $6 – $5.50.

Callsign Mav is a good chance to pull off an upset in Saturday's Group 1 Memsie Stakes at Caulfield. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

RACE 7: W.W COCKRAM STAKES (1200m)

FLYING MASCOT (2) emerged as a genuine Group performer last season and she can notch more stakes wins this time in. She went down narrowly to Probabeel first-up last time in and should go close here. PASSIVE AGGRESSIVE (7) faces her toughest test to date in the Cockram Stakes but she can’t do more than be four from four going into it. PRIDE OF JENNI (12) measured up in Group class last spring and could show up fresh. KISSONALLFOURCHEEKS (2) was close-up over 1200m first-up last time in and her Melbourne form is excellent.

SUGGESTED BET: Flying Mascot each-way

TAB MARKET MOVER: Isotope $9 – $7

RACE 8: GROUP 1 MAGIC MILLIONS MEMSIE STAKES (1400m)

Melbourne’s first Group 1 race of the season presents a tough challenge for punters but I’m going to have something each-way on CALLSIGN MAV (6). He pushed forward and was narrowly beaten first-up last time in, but he has an imposing record over 1400m. ILLATION (11) is an exciting galloper stepping up in class but is worth considering. TOFANE (12) races well over the 1400m and has drawn to get the perfect run. I’M THUNDERSTRUCK (1) is a class galloper that could impose himself on this contest fresh.

SUGGESTED BET: Callsign Mav each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Alligator Blook $6 – $5.50.

RACE 9: TILE IMPORTER HEATHERLIE STAKES (1700m)

The Heatherlie Stakes is always a tough race to find the winner and this year is no exception. Happy to have something small on SPANISH MISSION (1). He’ll be bound for longer races but there was a lot to like about his first-up third last preparation and he’s had more time with top trainer Peter Moody. NO EFFORT (8) won this race last year and could be hard to run down again. TRALEE ROSE wasn’t disgraced under 60kg fresh but will be better suited over this trip. LUNAR FLARE (7) is a talented galloper capable of producing a good fresh run.

SUGGESTED BET: Small bet Spanish Mission to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: No Effort $11 – $9.

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