Damien Oliver’s 2025 Victoria Derby day tips: Why Observer’s jockey Mark Zahra won’t fear the front

Damien Oliver provides Observer’s jockey Mark Zahra with a winning blueprint for Saturday’s Victoria Derby as he breaks down how the race will be run and won. Plus, get Ollie’s best bets for Flemington on Saturday.

Observer is clearly the horse to beat in this Victoria Derby, but he’ll also have a target on his back.

As the class horse and hot favourite, most other jockeys will be watching Mark Zahra … what he does early and when he looks to make his move.

Zahra will have a few options in mind. There’s been a distinct lack of pace in the key lead-up races, but with a field of 16 and short run to the first turn, it increases the chance of pace early with horses trying to find positions.

If there’s not as much pace as Zahra would like, could he take luck out of the equation and go to the front again himself?

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Observer has a lot in his favour. He was unlucky in the (Caulfield) Guineas, had that soft win in the Vase last Saturday and is drawn well, which is more important than you think with a short run to the first turn over 2500m at Flemington.

Of the six Victoria Derbys I won, I surprised a few when I took Fiveandahalfstars to the front (in 2012).

He was a strong on-pace stayer who I was confident would run out of the distance and, as a jockey, if you show your hand early that you want the lead, your rivals often then sit off you and let you control the race.

Also, when horses get to that front, they’ll often find a rhythm and relax without other horses around them.

In a field in which there’s no obvious leader, it looks a good option for Observer, who appears the best horse in the race.

The Vase | Observer

Observer, he's relentless 😤 Mark Zahra eases him up with 50 metres to go for an arrogant victory.

📺 Ch. 78/68, Foxtel 529, Kayo or via our app
REPLAYS: https://t.co/ZIa4a02wC0pic.twitter.com/cYp3z0VlDz

— Racing.com (@Racing) October 25, 2025

• Clinton Payne’s Victoria Derby runner-by-runner form analysis and tips

I really like the Vase form, so Providence – who flew home late behind Observer – is another key player in this Derby.

If there’s an upset, it could be Deal Done Fast. He took off a bit early in the (Caulfield) Classic and stuck on well. He looks like he’ll run the 2500m right out and is drawn well.

There’s a hot favourite in the Wakeful in Getta Good Feeling and deservedly so. I’m pretty keen on her to win on Saturday and think she’ll go on to win the Oaks on Thursday.

She looks the class runner after a terrific Thousand Guineas third behind two class fillies and there was so much to like about her Edward Manifold win at this track after being held up, but still finishing too strongly for them.

Class often prevails in this race and the Oaks. Jameka (2015), Special Harmony (2003) and Kensington Palace (1997) are class fillies I won the Oaks on.

The 2000m today and 2500m of the Oaks shouldn’t bother Getta Good Feeling, being a daughter of the late great So You Think.

Ollie takes a look at the two big races this weekend, the Victoria Derby & Golden Eagle 🏇🏾

Who do you have your eye on?@Quinny_1pic.twitter.com/bJsQhrtGnf

— Ladbrokes Australia (@ladbrokescomau) October 30, 2025

• Jett Hatton’s Empire Rose Stakes runner-by-runner form analysis and tips

The Empire Rose Stakes and Coolmore Stud Stakes are the two best and most competitive races of the day.

The dilemma of the Empire Rose is whether Fangirl and Pride Of Jenni, who get in so amazingly well under the set weights (if this was a handicap they’d be giving away six kilograms or more to key rivals), are past their absolute best? Both are in the twilight of their magnificent careers.

I’m treating them with caution and looking to Idle Flyer, who has been flying in Sydney, Splash Back and Benagil as the value.

What a terrific Coolmore. It’s hard to split the big three, but I like Tentyris’ racing pattern for down the straight. He should be stalking the other colts (Beiwacht and Beadman).

• Jett Hatton’s Coolmore Stud Stakes runner-by-runner form analysis and tips

I guess I’d better have a tip in the race they’ve named after me, the Damien Oliver. I’m going for Enxuto at big odds. Check out his last run – he’s still trying to get out of a pocket. He looks value on the minimum weight from a good draw.

Up to Sydney for the Golden Eagle and, although I’m full of respect for Autumn Glow, I think Linebacker is better value each-way around $6.

I loved his last start win sitting wide, when John O’Shea (trainer) said he had improvement to come. And look back at that infamous trial with Ka Ying Rising for how well the form has held-up through that pair and even Overpass, who ran a massive race in The Everest.

• Damien Oliver writes for this masthead courtesy of Ladbrokes. Watch "Ollie" along with Glen Boss, Nick Quinn and host Britt Taylor on Gatecrashers, your lighthearted and informative take on racing this spring. Every Thursday night at 11pm on Channel 7 and 7-Plus.

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OLLIE’S BEST BETS FOR FLEMINGTON

VICTORIA DERBY (Race 7)
Top tip: Observer (1)
Danger: Providence (6)
Value: Deal Done Fast (16)

WAKEFUL(Race 4)
Top tip: Getta Good Feeling (1)
Value: Freedom Flame (3)

EMPIRE ROSE (Race 8)
Value: Benagil (5)

COOLMORE STUD STAKES (Race 6)
Top tip: Tentyris (3)

BEST VALUE OF THE DAY
Race 5 No.12 Enxuto
Race 9 No.5 Stretan Angel

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OLLIE’S BEST BET FOR RANDWICK

GOLDEN EAGLE (Race 8)
Top tip: Linebacker (3)

Originally published as Damien Oliver’s 2025 Victoria Derby day tips: Why Observer’s jockey Mark Zahra won’t fear the front