Caulfield Guineas 2022: Runner-by-runner analysis for the $3m Group 1
Golden Mile is the favourite to give Godolphin a second consecutive Caulfield Guineas but is there an upset result on the cards in Saturday’s $3m contest?
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News Corp form analyst Brad Waters looks at the chances of every runner in Saturday’s $3m Group 1 Caulfield Guineas.
RACE DETAILS
$3m GROUP 1 CAULFIELD GUINEAS
1600m, Caulfield race 8
Saturday at 4:30pm
1. TIJUANA (10) – $11
Trainers: Ben & JD Hayes. Jockey: Mark Zahra 57kg
BRAD SAYS: Quality three-year-old proven at 1600m after winning the Stutt Stakes. Serious winning chance in wet or dry conditions.
2. BERKELEY SQUARE (7) – $5.50
Trainer: Dan O’Sullivan. Jockey: Craig Williams 57kg
BRAD SAYS: Dan O’Sullivan said this bloke was a Caulfield Guineas type back in August and there’s no reason to doubt him on his last-start success. Winning chance.
3. GOLDEN MILE (5) – $2.80
Trainer: James Cummings. Jockey: James McDonald 57kg
BRAD SAYS: Pushed forward and ran a solid fourth in the Golden Rose and won’t mind it soft. Probably a touch short in betting but one of the top hopes.
4. MILLANE (11) – $26
Trainer: Peter Moody. Jockey: Luke Nolen 57kg
BRAD SAYS: Moody and Nolen won with Anacheeva in 2010 but Millane was well held in the Golden Rose and the market would be surprised if he won.
5. BANK MAUR (17) – $19
Trainer: Richard Laming. Jockey: Jye McNeil 57kg
BRAD SAYS: Won an easier race at Sandown last time out but there was a lot to like about the win. He’s one on the up and McNeil sticking is a good sign.
6. FOUJITA SAN (18) – $34
Trainers: Michael, Wayne, and John Hawkes. Jockey: Damien Thornton 57kg
BRAD SAYS: Showed the 1600m wasn’t a problem with a good Stutt Stakes effort but the draw has done him no favours. He’ll run well but the gate makes it tough.
7. MERIDIUS (16) – $14
Trainer: Lloyd Kennewell. Jockey: Damian Lane 57kg
BRAD SAYS: Developing colt that just missed first-up but was solid behind outstanding winner Aft Cabin last start. If he runs the 1600m, he’s worth thought.
8. SKYPHIOS (3) – $41
Trainer: Rob Blacker. Jockey: Harry Coffey 57kg
BRAD SAYS: Talented galloper but unlikely to win the Caulfield Guineas. However, closely watch him with an eye to the Victoria Derby.
9. OSIPENKO (15) – $26
Trainer: Chris Waller. Jockey: Tim Clark 57kg
BRAD SAYS: Never underestimate the Chris Waller stable but Osipenko was beaten a long way in the Caulfield Guineas Prelude. Prefer to watch him here.
10. AMENABLE (14) – $12
Trainers: Mick Price and Michael Kent Jr. Jockey: Damien Oliver 57kg
BRAD SAYS: Produced good efforts at The Valley and in the Prelude at his two spring runs. Drawn awkwardly but has Damien Oliver aboard.
11. ELKINGTON ROAD (2) – $31
Trainer: Mike Moroney. Jockey: Jamie Mott 57kg
BRAD SAYS: Unbeaten after two heavy track wins, including a fighting effort at Flemington last time. He’ll run 1600m and the forecast rain will be perfect. Class rise is the query.
12. SIR BAILEY (4) – $23
Trainers: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace. Jockey: Ethan Brown 57kg
BRAD SAYS: Has found 1200m and 1400m too short this time in so 1600m will suit. Another worth watching for the Derby but he could surprise in the Guineas.
13. ELLIPTICAL (1) – $12
Trainers: Anthony and Sam Freedman. Jockey: Blake Shinn 57kg
BRAD SAYS: The Freedmans won the 2019 Caulfield Guineas with Super Seth, who was more brilliant than this guy. He was sound at Sandown and could fill a placing.
14. LETHAL THOUGHTS (12) – $26
Trainers: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace. Jockey: Michael Dee 57kg
BRAD SAYS: Needs to find 14 lengths on his last run and six lengths on his last meeting with Golden Mile. The task looks too tough for him.
15. THE FORTUNE TELLER (8) – $31
Trainers: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace. Jockey: Jamie Kah 57kg
BRAD SAYS: He’s a talented type with only three starts to his name. Not sure he can win the Guineas but there’s a decent race with his name on it in the spring.
16. DASHING (13) – $101
Trainer: Aaron Purcell. Jockey: Linda Meech 57kg
BRAD SAYS: Ran on OK at Flemington but he needs to improve. He won’t disgrace himself but he’s unlikely to emulate Mighty Boss’s win at $101 in 2017.
17. ANGRY SKIES (9) – $51
Trainers: Ben & JD Hayes. Jockey: Not notified
BRAD SAYS: Has plenty of ability and wasn’t far away at Sandown but this will be harder. A wet track would give him a rough place chance.
18. MURAMASA (8) – $61
Trainers: Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young. Jockey: Daniel Moor 57kg
BRAD SAYS: Needs a couple of scratchings to get a start. His Stutt Stakes run was OK but the Moonee Vase and the Derby are more suitable races for him.
BRAD’S TIPS:
1. TIJUANA
2. ELKINGTON ROAD
3. BANK MAUR
4. BERKELEY SQUARE
Golden Mile, Sir Bailey and Amenable are also winning chances in an open Caulfield Guineas.
Originally published as Caulfield Guineas 2022: Runner-by-runner analysis for the $3m Group 1
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