Berkeley Square the best bet of Saturday’s Cox Plate Day races at The Valley
Developing three-year-old Berkeley Square can bounce back from an unlucky Caulfield Guineas outing on Cox Plate day at The Valley.
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News Corp form analyst Brad Waters takes an early look at Saturday’s blockbuster Cox Plate meeting at The Valley.
BEST BET
BERKELEY SQUARE (Race 7, No.1)
Terrific three-year-old talent that was unlucky in the Caulfield Guineas. The step up to 2040m won’t worry him and he’s in well at the weight.
VALUE BET
GREAT BARRIER REEF (Race 3, No.9)
Great Barrier Reef was solid behind Giga Kick in the Danehill Stakes and that form has turned out to be outstanding. He drops in class on Saturday.
EARLY QUADDIE
2, 6, 9, 13/3, 8, 10, 12, 16/2, 3, 7/2, 5, 6, 9
$100 flexi for 41.66 per cent
BIG6
2, 3, 7/2, 5, 6, 9/1, 2/5, 6, 8, 9/2, 10, 12/1, 3, 6, 10
$100 flexi for 8.68 per cent
QUADDIE
Race 6: 1, 2
Race 7: 5, 6, 8, 9
Race 8: 2, 10, 12
Race 9: 1, 3, 6, 10
$100 flexi for 104.16 per cent
RACE 1: 12:15PM INGLIS BANNER (1000m)
A soft track is likely for Cox Plate Day but it certainly not as wet as Caulfield. ARKANSAW KID (1) quickened well in an excellent jumpout Flemington earlier this month. Damien Oliver deciding to ride him is a lead for punters. SAILOR’S RUM (5) comes from a strong two-year-old stable and has jumped out well. CAPPER THIRTYNINE (3) jumped out well at Flemington and worked well on Tuesday. CAPE BYRON (2) is well bred and should be in this for a long way.
SUGGESTED BET: Small win bet Arkansaw Kid.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Arkansaw Kid $3.70 – $3.20.
RACE 2: 12:50PM STRATHMORE COMMUNITY BENDIGO BANK HANDICAP (1000m)
One of the harder races of the day with several winning chances. SCISSOR STEP (9) resumes here and has a sound first-up record. He’ll be strong late. SARTORIAL SPLENDOR (6) just missed over 955m at The Valley last time and always races well on this track. MALKOVICH (1) drops back in class from the Moir Stakes and has a good record over the 1000m trip. ESTA LA ROCA (3) is fresh for this after a good effort at Listed level and goes well at The Valley.
SUGGESTED BET: Scissor Step each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Sartorial Splendor $7 – $5.50.
RACE 3: 1:25PM GROUP 3 RED ANCHOR STAKES (1200m)
An even contest here but going with GREAT BARRIER REEF (9) on top after his promising effort behind The Everest winner Giga Kick. He’ll be well suited here. MR TICKLES (13) was impressive on debut at Echuca and could measure up to this tougher contest. SWEET RIDE (2) fought on well behind smart galloper Best Of Bordeaux in Sydney last start and will be competitive. SHALAILED (6) ran honestly in the Blue Sapphire at Caulfield and should be thereabouts.
SUGGESTED BET: Great Barrier Reef to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Shalailed $5 – $4.
RACE 4: 2:00PM LISTED CROCKETT STAKES (1200m)
Speedy filly GREECE (12) showed her quality when an impressive first-up winner and she’s drawn to have the perfect run here. EVERGLADE (10) led and bolted in on debut at The Valley and will be even better for the experience. BIRDIES GALORE (8) resumes after a stakes placing in Adelaide in July but she comfortably won a trial at Benalla. WILLINGA BEAST (3) chased steadily at Group 2 level in Sydney last start and has placed three of four at 1200m.
SUGGESTED BET: Greece to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Greece $4 – $3.40.
RACE 5: 2:35PM GROUP 2 FILLIES CLASSIC (1600m)
The Peter Moody-trained DO IT LA (2) pushed forward and tried hard when not far away in the Edward Manifold Stakes at Flemington. She’ll be well suited in this contest. CLIMBING STAR (7) won comfortably on debut at Cranbourne and can handle the step up to 1600m in this. VAGRANT (3) gave a start and ran on steadily when up to 1600m at Flemington and should be strong late. ZOE’S PROMISE (1) raced on the speed and fought on well over 1600m at Caulfield.
SUGGESTED BET: Do It La to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Hell Hath No Fury $5 – $4.40.
RACE 6: 3:10PM GROUP 2 CRYSTAL MILE (1600m)
TUVALU (2) made the most of a perfect run to win the Toorak Handicap at Caulfield and should get a similar trip from barrier three on Saturday. MILITARY EXPERT (9) rolled forward and tried hard in the Toorak and should be competitive again. GENTLEMAN ROY (6) raced on the speed and tried hard at Caulfield and should be in this for a long way. Import MY OBERON (5) is the query runner so watch the betting moves.
SUGGESTED BET: Tuvalu to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Visinari $7.50 – $5.50.
RACE 7: 3:45PM GROUP 2 DRUMMOND GOLF VASE (2040m)
BERKELEY SQUARE (1) ran a terrific race despite not having much luck in the Caulfield Guineas. He’ll find this a bit easier and stepping to 2040m will be perfect for him at this stage. VIRTUOUS CIRCLE (2) was beaten less than a length in the Stutt Stakes at The Valley last time out and the rise in trip won’t worry him. BERARDINO (8) did his best work late when up to 1800m at Flemington last time and more ground will suit. SIR BAILEY (6) didn’t have the best of luck at Caulfield and should enjoy this longer trip.
SUGGESTED BET: Berkeley Square to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Sir Bailey $23 – $21.
RACE 8: 4:25PM GROUP 2 MOONEE VALLEY GOLD CUP (2500m)
LUNAR FLARE (5) won this race last year and showed she was building well this time with her win at Flemington last time out. Wet or dry ground won’t worry the mare. PERSAN (6) has improved at his last two runs this time in and has won at The Valley. SERPENTINE (8) led and wasn’t far away in the Bart Cummings and drops 2.5kg here. NERVE NOT VERVE (9) raced like she was looking for this distance at Cranbourne and has a good record at The Valley.
SUGGESTED BET: Lunar Flare to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Francesco Guardi $4.80 – $4.40.
RACE 9: 5:10PM GROUP 1 COX PLATE (2040m)
Hard to go past the brilliant weight-for-age performer ANAMOE (10) after his three terrific wins at Group 1 level this time in. I’M THUNDERSTRUCK (2) was narrowly beaten by Anamoe at Caulfield and won his only start at The Valley. EL BODEGON (12) has a dash of class about him and has the tactical speed to roll forward and be hard to get past in the straight. ZAAKI (1) will push forward from the inside draw and won’t be far away.
SUGGESTED BET: Box trifecta 1, 2, 10, 12
TAB MARKET MOVER: Zaaki $4.50 – $3.90.
RACE 10: 5:50PM GROUP 3 TESIO STAKES (1600m)
SIRILEO MISS (1) can win the last race of the two-meeting Cox Plate Carnival after finding her best form at Caulfield last time. Rain wouldn’t worry her and another 1600m will be perfect. SAVONIA (10) raced on the speed and tried hard at Sandown and could measure up to this. AGREEABLE (3) returns to Melbourne after winning the Murray Bridge Cup and has drawn well. ROOTS (6) is developing well in Sydney and is worth including here.
SUGGESTED BET: Sirileo Miss to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Roots $3.30 – $3.10.
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