Matildas coach Tony Gustavsson faces legacy-defining week after head-scratching World Cup loss to Nigeria
All eyes are on Matildas coach Tony Gustavsson as World Cup hopes teeter ahead of Australia’s final group clash against Canada, writes ADAM PEACOCK.
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“After tomorrow, I’m either going to be a phenomenal coach or the worst coach that ever coached the Matildas.”— Tony Gustavsson, July 19, 2023.
Two games, four mysterious injuries and nine days later, Tony Gustavsson’s flippant line in a press conference the day before the World Cup opener against Ireland has taken on greater meaning.
To be clear, Gustavsson is not the worst coach in Matildas history although there are some skewering him with that spear.
But neither is he a phenomenal coach. Thursday night’s clunky performance on the field against Nigeria – and the decisions made on the bench – said as much.
Still, he has shown a knack for finding something extra when it has mattered through the years. His ability to do that again over the coming days will define his entire legacy as Matildas boss.
STRATEGIC FLAWS
No team in the history of sport has become a better version of itself without its best player and Sam Kerr’s injury has meant the Matildas are more vulnerable.
They miss her presence on the pitch and the relentless threat she poses in front of goal. Still, the Matildas are not functioning as well as they should in her absence.
Gustavsson has stuck to a similar game plan – exposed against Nigeria when pressure applied didn’t result in great chances – leaving the side open to accidents, such as the calamities at the back for Nigeria’s second and third goals.
Two things spook football teams: chances missed and goalkeeping mishaps. Mackenzie Arnold, so far brilliant in 2023 for the Matildas, wasn’t at her peak in Brisbane. And Caitlin Foord, in place of Kerr up front, showed flashes of her best self but wasn’t afforded quality service.
Why? How?
Everyone has a theory.
Sitting pitchside on Thursday, it was clear the Matildas’ passing game was not at an elite level. Too many interchanges were slowed by a ball that bobbled before the receiver, slowing down her next action. There was a reliance on getting the ball from back to front through long diagonal balls to the pacy wingers, though the athletic Nigerians were able to match Hayley Raso and Cortnee Vine in a foot race.
BENCH HEAD-SCRATCHER
One area Gustavsson will analyse heavily over the next 48 hours is his use of the bench against Nigeria.
For reasons unknown, he was reluctant to make a change, even staring deep into the abyss at 3-1 down.
It wasn’t until the 80th minute that Clare Polkinghorne, a defender, came on for Cortnee Vine, a winger. Five minutes later, the creative Alex Chidiac made a belated appearance. While chances were created late, Gustavsson himself listed four “100 per cent” chances in the dying stages as proof his side deserved a better outcome.
Many this morning are still mystified about Alanna Kennedy going up front as a makeshift striker, but this isn’t new, and the move paid off at the Olympics.
With the Matildas 2-1 down late in a quarter-final against Great Britain, Kennedy pushed up to support Kerr. It worked when Kennedy created chaos with an aerial challenge and the ball dropped to Kerr, who made it 2-2. The Matildas went on to win the game in extra-time.
Gustavsson was proactive with his changes in the two defeats that followed at the Olympics, making multiple subs on the 70 minute mark in the semi-final against Sweden and the bronze playoff game against the US.
But, curiously, the proactive nature has disappeared in big moments since. In the surprise quarter-final loss to Korea in January 2022, there was only one change before the 90th minute.
And then there was last night.
Gustavsson has extensively talked about how much he values the players on the bench. No longer are players deemed not good enough to start; the modern view is they are crucial to finish a game, or change it.
The way Gustavsson used them on Thursday, he needed less game changers and more miracle workers.
xG VERSUS REAL LIFE
Last night in Brisbane, a timing mix up saw this reporter late for his assigned interview with Gustavsson upon arrival at the stadium. Other coaches in that situation would have justifiably dropped a few f-bombs, demanded someone else do it, or just stormed off.
Gustavsson approached it with a laugh. No stress. He then went about his regular pre-match routine, in which he is locked away in the corner of a dressing room for 15 minutes in a state of meditation while the Matildas warm up.
Over the course of 90 minutes that calm vanished.
Gustavsson became more and more hyper in his technical area as the Matildas chased the game. And his mood post-game was in stark contrast to the at-ease character earlier in the evening.
Gustavsson went through his deliberations in front of microphones holding a small piece of paper with facts and figures scribbled.
How many chances, final third entries and xG.
Ah, xG.
The new-age algorithm formulated by boffins to explain how many goals a team should be scoring based on attacking threat. It is used by coaches and analysts looking for a quick way to back up their interpretation of a performance.
The xG scoreboard read Australia 2.21 – Nigeria 1.49.
No one is dancing along the Brisbane River this morning twirling their Matildas scarves over this theoretical win.
xG is sugar on cereal. It changes the taste, makes whatever it is you’re eating sweeter, but does nothing for your overall health.
And on Friday the unsweetened scoreboard still read: Australia 2, Nigeria 3.
BIG CALLS
For all the notable and noble work building depth with the Matildas over three years, and near-glory at the Olympics, Gustavsson’s tenure will be defined by decisions made in the coming week(s).
Some are out of his control, such as the Kerr injury. Some will require retrospection, like the decision to pick Kyah Simon, not ready to play a part yet, rather than a fit player ready to contribute from day one.
The key calls, though, will be the ones made in the lead-up to Monday night’s clash with Canada in Melbourne.
Change the shape to get Foord on the ball more?
Pull back on relying on the wingers to cause damage?
Use Alex Chidiac to break a game open?
Introduce the experience of Tameka Yallop, yet to let anyone down in her long Matildas career?
Canada, the Olympic champion, is a confident team again after its coach, Bev Priestman, went all-in with proactive choices in its last match on Wednesday.
Level 1-1 with Ireland at halftime, but playing poorly, Priestman completely changed Canada’s tactical set-up and swapped three players at the break. Harsh on some, but it had the desired effect. The Canadians were a different side in the second half and deservingly won the game.
The Matildas don’t have the luxury of depth to be that proactive in Monday’s clash, which it would not be hyperbolic to say is the most important in the team’s history given what’s at stake.
Ace the assignment and the Matildas live to fight another day.
Flunk it, and Gustavsson’s July 19 statement could prove sadly prophetic.
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