Women’s World Cup: Matildas face uphill statistical battle in their campaign for Cup glory
They’ve been given only an eight per cent chance of taking out the World Cup, but the Matildas are ready to buck trends and defy statistics as they continue to take scalps of the world’s best teams.
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The Matildas have been given an 8 per cent chance of winning the FIFA women’s World Cup, a number sure to add even more fire to the belly of the Australian squad.
Nielsen, one of the world’s leading data and analytics firms, is backing four-time champions the United States to defend their title “based on approximately one million simulations of the entire tournament.”
The USWNT have been given an 18% chance of winning the Cup, with Sweden and Germany sharing a likelihood at 11% – a statistic that reflects most bookmakers’ odds for the tournament.
It’s a figure that will have little bearing over Tony Gustavsson as he looks to prepare the Matildas for their opening Group B match against Republic of Ireland on Thursday.
The coach made clear that no statistics or previous wins will have any bearing on their preparation for the tournament.
“[The win] Doesn’t mean anything on the 20th when we play Ireland. It’s something different,” Gustavsson said.
The Matildas have been given an 89% chance of progressing past the group stage, four per cent more than Canada, who, ranked 7th in the world, are their toughest opponents.
With wins in the last year over France, England, Spain and Sweden – each ranked higher than the Matildas on FIFA’s ladder and Nielsen’s win probability data.
Attacker Cortnee Vine believes those wins could have a significant effect on the Matildas readiness going into the tournament.
“To come up against those big teams and learn from them and learn with our team how we play, it’s so important,” Vine says.
“This journey for the last year playing these top ten teams has made a difference.”
Likely starting goalkeeper Mackenzie Arnold echoed the sentiment.
“To get results against those teams, and a couple of clean sheets as well shows a lot of confidence and consistency that we’ve been looking for over the last couple of years,” Arnold says.
The Matildas’ self-belief will be at an all time high, an important factor that had no weighting on Nielsen’s simulations.
“Actually walking out and admiring how many people are there to support us blows my mind. To see so many people behind us – it’s amazing to hear everyone behind you,” Vine says.
Only one team has ever won the tournament at home, when the USA did it in 1999 in front of more than 90,000 fans at the Rose Bowl in California. They’ve since lifted the Cup on two more occasions, winning back-to-back editions in 2015 and 2019.
Previous success at the event is one of the biggest determinants in competitiveness at the competition.
Since the first edition in 1991, only ten different teams have reached the semi-final stage. The US has appeared in each medal play-off, with third place finishes in 1995, 2003 and 2007 their worst finishes at the tournament.
They are most likely to share the pitch with Germany in the final – a repeat of the 2003 final match.
Germany have won the Cup twice, making them the second most successful team, with two wins out of five semi-finals appearances. Sweden, who have an equal likelihood of winning – at 11% – have appeared in the semis four times.
It’s a staggering fact, highlighted by Nielsen’s predictions for the quarter finalists:
“The eight most likely quarterfinalists are Spain, USA, France, Germany, Sweden, England, Japan and Australia in that order.”
Unlike the Industry Super Funds of Australia, it seems that historical performance at the tournament is very much an indicator of future success.
But the Matildas will need to buck the semi-finalists trend as they look to secure their first final four appearance and World Cup trophy.
That crowd was ELECTRIC 🔌
— CommBank Matildas (@TheMatildas) July 15, 2023
âš¡ Our record-breaking crowd is your @CUPRA Electric Moment of the Match âš¡#Matildas#AUSvFRApic.twitter.com/TcYswYy3Ab
The crowd will play an important role when the Matildas meet the Republic of Ireland in a clash of confidence.
Though the home team will be buoyed by two consecutive record breaking crowds, Ireland’s advantage lies in their 1-0 head-to-head record.
Ireland weren’t given any chance of winning the World Cup in Nielsen’s simulations, but they will be looking to exploit Australia’s high confidence levels and capitalise on the 22% likelihood of progressing through to the knockout stage.
Nigeria, the Matildas’ second opponents, face the longest odds of progressing past the group stage with just a 4% chance against a 0% tournament winning probability.
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Originally published as Women’s World Cup: Matildas face uphill statistical battle in their campaign for Cup glory
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