A-League clubs put in their place in worldwide list of teams
Sydney FC may be A-League champions, but how do they compare with clubs around the world? How about other A-League clubs? The Global Club Rankings gives the answer.
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A world football super computer has delivered the A-League a harsh reality check, placing its clubs well down the pecking order of its international club rankings system.
All Australian teams languish in the bottom half of FiveThirtyEight’s Global Club Rankings, which compiles the data of 629 teams.
The opinion poll/sports blogging website uses a complex algorithm it says is designed to provide the best possible objective representation of a team’s current overall skill level week on week.
Even so, fans of football’s unpredictability might take such a mathematical exercise with a grain of salt, while player agents have pointed out flaws that disadvantage Australian clubs.
Nevertheless, it provides an intriguing look at where A-League clubs purportedly rate in quality on the world stage, with the current rankings suggesting they would struggle to compete in the English Championship.
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Last season’s two grand finalists are the top-ranked Australian teams, with Sydney FC sitting at 327th and Perth Glory on their tail at 328th.
Melbourne City aren’t far behind at No.342.
But Melbourne Victory, the next-best after City, are down at No.445.
Little more than a year ago Victory were the top A-League side at 185th from 576 teams, Sydney were second at 193rd and Central Coast last at 528th.
Now the Mariners are 585th, sandwiched between League One strugglers AFC Wimbledon and League Two mid-tablers Mansfield Town, in a bottom 50 dominated by clubs from England’s lower tiers and the US second-division USL Championship.
All the usual suspects are at the pointy end.
Unsurprisingly, Manchester City are currently first and Liverpool second, with Bayern Munich, Paris-Saint Germain and Barcelona rounding out the top five.
The top 20 is predominantly comprised of clubs from the English Premier League (six), La Liga (four), German Bundesliga (four) and Serie A (three), with PSG and Ajax representing the French Ligue 1 and Dutch Eredivisie respectively and Austrian outfit Red Bull Salzburg No.12.
Manchester United is currently No.13, and Arsenal’s recent troubles have Unai Emery’s side at No.21.
After that, it’s daylight and then the A-League.
HOW DOES IT WORK?
The substantially revised version of ESPN’s Soccer Power Index (SPI) is calculated on the expected number of goals scored and the expected number of goals conceded on a neutral field.
Each team’s performance is also evaluated by the value of its goals, which are adjusted based on the conditions under which they are scored.
The predictive model also takes into account shot-based expected goals, an estimate of how many goals a team ‘should’ have scored, and non-shot expected goals, an estimate of how many goals a team ‘should’ have scored based on non-shooting actions they took around the opposing team’s goal.
That’s perhaps evident in the way Sydney have climbed six spots despite losing 1-0 to Western Sydney last weekend and Perth have slipped 17 places despite beating Wellington 2-1.
Before a season begins, a team’s SPI ratings are based on its ratings at the end of the previous season coupled with the collective market value of its players as calculated by Transfermarkt.
WHO SITS WHERE?
Much of the top 100 is filled out with the big European leagues and speckled with clubs from Russia (Zenit top at No.22), Portugal (Porto top at No.23), Greece (Olympiacos top at No.32), Brazil (Flamengo top at No.35), Switzerland (Young Boys top at No.47), Argentina (River Plate top at No.69) and Turkey (Galatasaray squeezes in at No.99).
Below that it’s Denmark (Copenhagen top at No.103), China (Guangzhou Evergrande top at No.110), Sweden (Malmo top at No.126), Mexico (Club América top at No.133) and the US (Los Angeles FC top at No.136).
Mat Ryan’s Brighton are ranked No.62, one position lower than West Ham and three higher than Mat Leckie’s Hertha Berlin, and Awer Mabil’s Danish outfit FC Midtjylland are No.122.
Tom Rogic’s Celtic come in at No.58, 13 spots higher than Scottish Old Firm rivals Rangers, and Danny Vukovic’s Belgian club Genk are No.124.
Ange Postecoglou’s Yokohama F. Marinos are the third-placed Japanese outfit at No.220, behind top-ranked Kashima Antlers (No.178) and Kawaski Frontale (No.200).
And Shanghai SIPG, the cashed-up Chinese Super League side with whom Sydney twice drew in this year’s Asian Champions League and could well have beaten, are 210 places higher than the Sky Blues at No.117.
HOW DOES A-LEAGUE COMPARE?
All clubs in the gruelling English Championship bar one are ranked higher than all A-League clubs, with Barnsely the sole straggler back at No.375.
The second-lowest, Luton Town (No.319), sits eight spots above Sydney.
Leeds United is the top-ranked Championship side at No.72, between Rangers (Scottish Premiership) and Aston Villa (English Premier League).
Fulham (No.91) is the only other English second-tier team in the top 100, the bulk of the rest ranging from No.114 (Brentford) to No.261 (Wigan) apart from Charlton Athletic (No.314) and the aforementioned Luton and Barnsley.
Equally intriguing is how Australia’s top tier compares to that of the Netherlands.
Almost exactly one year ago, Socceroos coach Graham Arnold measured the A-League’s quality as superior to the Eredivisie, saying he’d “just been to Holland to see some games and I’d say that A-League level is better”.
And yet it stands, 12 of the Dutch Eredivisie’s 18 clubs are ranked above all A-League clubs, with mid-table side FC Twente five places above Sydney at No.322 and the next, Willem II, at No.357.
A fair few Japanese, Chinese and Norwegian top-tier teams span similar same rankings as their A-League counterparts, as do teams from Italy’s Serie B, Germany’s 2. Bundesliga, Spain’s La Liga 2.
One second-division US side is higher than Sydney, with Phoenix Rising slotting in at No.288.
SYDNEY TOP, BUT CITY FOR THE PLATE
Western Sydney may be top of the table but Sydney FC are the best A-League team right now, according to the model.
Steve Corica’s defending champions are 173 rankings higher than the Wanderers despite sitting third after three rounds with three less points, the same number of goals scored and two more conceded.
Apart from the Wanderers’ rating as the fourth-poorest from the A-League teams, the rankings loosely follow the table’s order with a few exceptions.
For instance, Wellington (No.513) are currently bottom with three losses from three games.
But Central Coast (No.585) are slated for a third wooden spoon in as many campaigns despite having one draw and one loss to show for their two outings before last weekend’s bye.
The system also predicts City are most likely to lift this season’s Premiers’ Plate by a marginal amount.
It also gives Erick Mombaerts’ side and Sydney (predicted second place) an equal-top 23 per cent chance of winning the 2020 grand final, just ahead of the Glory’s (predicted third place) 22 per cent chance.
PROBLEMS WITH THE MODEL
Of course, these are numerous and varied.
Most obvious is that many of the world’s professional leagues are not featured – Asia is represented only by the A-League, J1 League and Chinese Super League, South America only by Argentina and Brazil and Africa only by South Africa’s Premier Division.
Another factor with potentially significant rankings ramifications is FiveThirtyEight’s use of Transfermarkt figures to calculate a team’s market value that contributes to start-of-season SPI.
“There is no exact science,” says Australia-based agent Paddy Dominguez, whose clients include Aaron Mooy and Jamie Maclaren.
“Transfermarkt might say a player’s worth $25 million based on performances, stats, the algorithms, etc.
“The simple answer is that a player is worth whatever the club is willing to pay for them.
“Transfermarkt will not dictate Man United’s prices when they go to buy a player. So the A-League is disadvantaged on many fronts in something like this because you’ll generally find that most business transacted between clubs (overseas) is in the domestic transfer market, and that doesn’t exist for the A-League.”
Compounding the issue is that the A-League, like the MLS, operates under salary-cap restrictions.
The A-League’s $3.2 million cap is at odds with the global pattern of transfer market inflation, to the point that an overseas team of similar quality to say, Sydney FC, might boast a significantly higher market value.
“We can’t be valued in any way because we’re one of the few in the world that’s a restricted market,” says another agent Tony Rallis, who represents a throng of Australians including Socceroos defender Trent Sainsbury and Socceroos coach Graham Arnold.
“They can never apply that science to our league … if the salary cap didn’t exist you could put another 25-30 per cent on salary incomes.
“The only way they can use that metric when it comes to the A-League and, to a lesser extent the MLS, is if they withdrew those restrictions.”
WHERE YOUR A-LEAGUE CLUB SITS (as of Thursday)
324 - Goiás, Brasileirão (Brazil)
325 - Desportivo, Aves Primeira Liga (Portugal)
326 - Göztepe, Süper Lig (Turkey)
327 - Sydney FC, A-League (Australia)
328 - Perth Glory, A-League (Australia)
329 - Huracán, Superliga (Argentina)
330 - Mechelen, First Division A (Belgium)
331 - Kasımpaşa, Süper Lig (Turkey)
339 - Marítimo, Primeira Liga (Portugal)
340 - Dalian Yifang, Super League (China)
341 - Bodø/Glimt, Eliteserien (Norway)
342 - Melbourne City, A-League (Australia)
343 - Málaga, La Liga 2 (Spain)
344 - Gimnasia, Superliga (Argentina)
345 - CSA, Brasileirão (Brazil)
442 - Lobos BUAP, Liga MX (Mexico)
443 - Fortuna Sittard, Eredivisie (Netherlands)
444 - Nagoya, J1 League (Japan)
445 - Melbourne Victory, A-League (Australia)
446 - Vegalta Sendai, J1 League (Japan)
447 - Viking, Eliteserien (Norway)
448 - VVV-Venlo, Eredivisie (Netherlands)
449 - Elche, La Liga 2 (Spain)
450 - Extremadura, La Liga 2 (Spain)
451 - Oostende, First Division A (Belgium)
452 - Adelaide United, A-League (Australia)
453 - Darmstadt 98, 2. Bundesliga (Germany)
454 - Elfsborg, Allsvenskan (Sweden)
455 - Urawa Reds, J1 League (Japan)
458 - Sochaux, Ligue 2 (France)
459 - Erzgebirge Aue, 2. Bundesliga (Germany)
460 - Eupen, First Division A (Belgium)
461 - Western United, A-League (Australia)
462 - W. Beveren, First Division A (Belgium)
463 - Greuther Fürth, 2. Bundesliga (Germany)
464 - Hobro, Superliga (Denmark)
468 - Perugia, Serie B (Italy)
469 - Oita Trinita, J1 League (Japan)
470 - VfL Osnabrück, 2. Bundesliga (Germany)
471 - Newcastle Jets, A-League (Australia)
472 - Lamia, Super League (Greece)
473 - Shimizu S-Pulse, J1 League (Japan)
474 - Reno 1868, USL Championship (USA)
497 - Cittadella, Serie B (Italy)
498 - Lugo , La Liga 2 (Spain)
499 - Sagan Tosu, J1 League (Japan)
500 - Western Sydney Wanderers, A-League (Australia)
501 - Valenciennes, Ligue 2 (France)
502 - Burton Albion, League One (England)
503 - Orléans, Ligue 2 (France)
510 - Pescara, Serie B (Italy)
511 - Vancouver, Major League Soccer (USA)
512 - SuperSport Utd, Premier Division (South Africa)
513 - Wellington Phoenix, A-League (Australia)
514 - Cercle Brugge, First Division A (Belgium)
515 - Sundsvall, Allsvenskan (Sweden)
516 - Highlands Park, Premier Division (South Africa)
559 - Bradford City, League Two (England)
560 - Polokwane City, Premier Division (South Africa)
561 - Júbilo Iwata, J1 League (Japan)
562 - Brisbane Roar, A-League (Australia)
563 - MK Dons, League One (England)
564 - Lincoln City, League One (England)
565 - Yamaga, J1 League (Japan)
582 - Kalmar, Allsvenskan (Sweden)
583 - Exeter City, League Two (England)
584 - Wimbledon, League One (England)
585 - Central Coast Mariners, A-league (Australia)
586 - Mansfield Town,League Two (England)
587 - Eskilstuna, Allsvenskan (Sweden)
588 - Stanley, League One (England)
Originally published as A-League clubs put in their place in worldwide list of teams