The return of Dave Warner and Steve Smith set to end Ashes dream of Test incumbent

With Steve Smith and David Warner locked in for the Ashes, and a selection plan for seven bowlers and two keepers, one Aussie Test incumbent looks set to miss the cut.

An Ashes plan to include five fast bowlers, a back-up keeper and even a second spinner in Australia’s 16-man squad could squeeze an incumbent Test batsman out of the tour.

Most of the squad is locked away in the mind of selection chief Trevor Hohns which will definitely include returning star batsmen Steve Smith and David Warner.

But the final make-up looks certain to come down to recent runs and a big score in the all-Aussie showdown in Southhampton could be crucial for batsmen looking to hold their spot.

(L-R) Steve Smith and David Warner will definitely be picked in the Ashes squad.

Hohns and his selection panel have picked 25 players for the match between Australia and Australia A at the Rose Bowl, after which the Ashes squad will be picked.

They settled on 16 for the five Ashes Tests, and want five quicks, while Alex Carey’s performance in the World Cup has put him at the front of the cue to be the second keeper.

“Batting-wise he was very, very good. He showed calmness in a lot of different situations,” Hohns said.

“He’s been very impressive.”

Alex Carey’s World Cup heroics should be enough to secure a berth in the Ashes squad. Picture: AP Photo/Rui Vieira

Both Smith and Warner have been pencilled in by Hohns which he said would make a “squeeze” for spots.

“If we look back to our home summer … our boys did very well. So add those two to the group and it means there will be some player squeeze,” he said.

“If it was 12 months ago, we were thinking about who we were going to pick, now it’s more about who is going to miss out.”

The five fast bowlers, two keepers, two spinners, plus Smith and Warner makes 11.

With just five more spots to fill, one of the top six that helped Australia thrash Sri Lanka in January could be bumped for the Ashes.

Marcus Harris is no certainty to retain his opening role despite a solid Aussie summer. Picture: Steve Bardens/Getty Images

Victorian Marcus Harris’ played all six Tests last summer, was Australia’s leading run-scorer against England, and smashed 1188 Sheffield Shield runs.

He was the frontrunner to open with Warner in England when Joe Burns was diagnosed with viral fatigue. But Burns has recovered and smashed 133, while Harris made 109, for Australia A against Sussex last week.

Joe Burns smashed a century for Australia A against Sussex. Picture: Steve Bardens/Getty Images

Despite average Test returns last summer, Marnus Labuschange has pummelled 1063 runs, with five hundreds, in just 10 games for English county side Glamorgan.

Hohns made it clear they were putting performances in English conditions at the top of their selection criteria.

Usman Khawaja is likely to be picked despite his hamstring injury, while Travis Head and Kurtis Patterson filled out the Test top six in Australia.

James Pattinson looks assured of Ashes selection after taking 7-77 against Sussex last week. Picture: Steve Bardens/Getty Images

“All we can do is try to select a squad that we think can win the Ashes, in English conditions. It’s more about the here and now,” Hohns said.

“While it might appear that most of the Ashes squad picks itself, I can honestly say there are still some positions up for grabs. We have to make sure we are picking blokes who are performing in English conditions.”

The fast bowling battery is certain to include Victorian James Pattinson who took 7-77 against Sussex last week, with one more to join Mitch Starc, Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood.

Hohns also said they would prefer a second spinner and Victorian Jon Holland is the only other tweaker in the 25 playing in tour game.