CricViz experts explain why New Zealand are equipped to knock off Australia in their own patch
New Zealand have only ever won one series in Australia. And that was over 30 years ago. But a statistical analysis of their current side by CricViz reveals they’ve never had a better chance than now.
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Cricket stats gurus, CricViz, have crunched the numbers and come to the conclusion that - while Australia are clear favourites on home soil - to take the Kiwis lightly would be a grave error.
On current form they have a genuine sniff of winning only a second ever series on these shores.
Here’s why ...
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STRENGTH IN DEPTH
The presence of Kane Williamson looms large in New Zealand cricket.
A small country with a small player base encourages larger-than-usual influence for prominent players who rise to elite level.
Williamson, player of the tournament in the World Cup and Test stalwart, is the perfect example. A dignified leader, his primary job is to score runs — and he does that extremely well. In the past two years, only two men in world cricket average more than him with the bat — Steve Smith and Virat Kohli — and each has a case to put forward for being the best of all time.
Williamson has, quietly, been kicking it with the elite for a fair old while.
However, what’s been underestimated is the back-up behind Smith. Henry Nicholls and Tom Latham have both recorded extraordinarily high batting averages over the past two years. When you combine that with the experience of Ross Taylor, and the lower-order assuredness of BJ Watling, the image of a coherent and substantial batting order really comes together.
It’s there in the bowling as well. As we have just seen with Pakistan’s failings in the two-Test series, touring sides in Australia live and die by the strength of their seam attacks.
Kohli’s India (Bumrah, Shami, Ishant, Umesh), Faf’s South Africa (Rabada, Morkel, Philander) and Strauss’ England (Anderson, Broad, Finn, Tremlett, Bresnan) all boasted not one, not two, but a group of seamers capable of competing at this level. Other sides with less memorable performances did not.
New Zealand this time have a trio of established Test seamers, with Boult, Southee and Wagner averaging 23.98, 24.18 and 23.89, respectively over the past two years of Test cricket. When you add to that the support of Colin de Grandhomme and the as-yet-unleashed red ball potential of Lockie Ferguson, you see a substantial unit.
PLAYING THE CONDITIONS
It helps that the Kiwi bowlers in question are more than used to the Kookaburra ball, using it in their home Tests.
The difference between the two most frequently used cricket balls — Kookaburra and Dukes — is substantial.
Plenty of England seam attacks — used to operating in similar climates to New Zealand — that look competitive on paper have been scuppered on their arrival in Australia. Such culture shock shouldn’t be the case for the Kiwis.
The most distinctive aspect of modern Australian Test cricket is not incredible bounce or blinding pace, but runs — lots, and lots, and lots of them.
The flat, true surfaces of Australia have become the most distinctive feature of red ball cricket in this country, and the only country in the world that can compete with Australia (and indeed, supersede it) in terms of run-soakedness is New Zealand.
Regardless of how flat the ground-staff make the pitches, New Zealand will be prepared. They know how to bat long, they know how to bat big.
CATCHES WIN MATCHES
In Australia, you have got to get everything right to win — and so the tiny details matter. Fielding falls into this category, as much as the catches-win-matches brigade would have you believe. New Zealand have a good record with fielding over the past two years of Test cricket, with only two sides — Pakistan and South Africa — having taken a higher proportion of their chances in this form of the game.
Using CricViz’s fielding impact measurements, we can attempt to calculate the influence of every wicketkeeper in the world — and by that calculation, New Zealand have the best in the world.
BJ Watling saves his side an average of more than eight runs per game, more than any other established wicketkeeper in the world. If it comes down to the fine margins of glovework, of snaffled legside stumpings and not letting byes, then New Zealand look set.
SPIN IT TO WIN IT
In recent years, New Zealand’s spin attack has not been their strength, with numerous players tried and discarded, the selectors unable to find an incisive option to go with — since the start of 2017, their spinners have taken a wicket only every 83 balls they have bowled, the worst record of any established Test team in the world.
However, in that time period, they have been able to have some success purely by keeping it extraordinarily tight.
Over the past three years, New Zealand’s spinners have recorded an economy rate of just 2.65 runs per over, the best of any established Test nation.
While Mitchell Santner is unlikely to blow Australia away — finger spinners, the truly elite aside, have always found it tough going here — New Zealand look capable of tying up an end and giving their seam attack a rest.
Hitting Santner out of the attack will be a crucial target for the Australian batsmen, Warner in particular.
Originally published as CricViz experts explain why New Zealand are equipped to knock off Australia in their own patch