Australia will know exactly what England needs for World Cup survival – but what will they do with that information?
England is facing a World Cup nightmare, with its two greatest sporting foes Australia and Scotland in a position to knock them out of the tournament in the group stage.
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Should Australia orchestrate a go-slow in their final group game against Scotland to knock England out of the World Cup?
That is the tantalising question on the lips of cricket fans on both sides of the Ashes divide, with England under the hammer to lift its net run rate higher than Scotland or suffer the embarrassment of premature elimination.
Australian coach Andrew McDonald admitted in Antigua that selectors would consider resting multiple stars against Scotland, provided his side first beat Namibia on Wednesday morning (AEST) and guarantee their own qualification for the Super 8s stage.
“Namibia we need to win to guarantee ourselves a way through,” McDonald said.
“Then I think after that, after we’ve firmed up qualification, we can start to look at that potential (for resting players) if you feel like it’s necessary.”
The motivation for resting would be purely strategic in terms of giving the likes of Ashton Agar, Cameron Green, Nathan Ellis and potentially Josh Inglis valuable match-practice in case they’re needed later in the tournament when the whips are cracking.
But then there is the question of tactics.
Would knocking England out be a factor in Australia’s thinking about how they might look to beat Scotland?
Coach McDonald played a relatively straight bat.
“Not really. (We’re) not really focused on England and where they’re at,” McDonald said.
“We’ve played them and moved past them and we’ll do what’s important to us within those games.
“We haven’t got the option of talking about that (tactics against Scotland and their impact on England) at the moment.
“Namibia (are) first and foremost.
“England clearly have got their own work to do in their next couple of games. We were put in a similar position at the last World Cup where we had to chase net run rate.
“It’s always difficult. You’re always depending on other results.
“It’s not a nice situation to be in but that’s for them to work through.”
The by-product of any potential changes to Australia’s best XI or tactics is the potential impact that could have on England, who are at the severe disadvantage of playing their final game before Scotland and Australia go to battle later.
The Aussies and the Bravehearts will know exactly what equation would be required to sink their mutual arch-enemy.
Australian captain Steve Waugh employed deliberate go-slow tactics in the 1999 World Cup to affect net run rate, because it was more beneficial for his side to have West Indies join them in the Super 6s, rather than New Zealand.
Similarly here, Australia’s hopes of winning the World Cup, and making it a Triple Crown of ICC world titles, would be significantly improved if England were taken out of the picture as a potential semi-final opponent later in the tournament, and it was Scotland progressing through instead.
England’s current net run rate after a 36-run loss to Australia and a washout against Scotland where the points were shared is -1.800.
Scotland’s net run rate is currently a healthy +2.164 and even better than Australia’s, after their comfortable wins against Oman and Namibia, as well as the England washout.
England face Oman on Thursday and Namibia on Saturday in Antigua and as a rough estimate might need to win both matches by 50 runs – unless the ledger changes again by Australia thrashing Scotland in the final game of Group B.
In FIFA World Cups, final group matches are played simultaneously so teams are not disadvantaged when it comes to calculating the final permutations of what’s required to qualify.
McDonald himself is confused why Australia will have nothing to show for their group stage dominance once the Super 8s begins, because net run rate for the semi-finals’ race starts again with a clean slate.
Australia are set to play their best XI on Wednesday morning against Namibia (with the possible exception of a fast bowler being rested), but provided they chalk up a third victory for the group stage, some rotation in the side is likely before facing Scotland.
McDonald said captain Mitchell Marsh is a chance to potentially bowl for the first time in the tournament against Scotland, or if not then, Australia is hoping the all-rounder will become a bowling option by the start of the Super 8s.
“Very hopefully, he will be back ready to bowl in matches,” McDonald said.
“I’d say the likelihood against Namibia is very slim, potentially increasing against Scotland, then he should have a clear run at the Super 8s and be able to bowl there.
“The assumption there is we qualify. We have Namibia first.”
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Originally published as Australia will know exactly what England needs for World Cup survival – but what will they do with that information?