Contenders and pretenders: who leads the NFL Playoff race? NFL Week 15 preview

The playoff race is heating up: who are the pretenders and contenders for Super Bowl LIX as we head into Week 15?

It’s officially the best time of the NFL year, as we sort the playoff contenders from the pretenders... and say goodbye to having to watch the objectively bad teams with the dreaded ‘e’ for ‘eliminated from playoff contention’ next to their names.

Just look at the last week. Kansas City are finding new chaotic ways to win games, Aaron Rodgers has no answers to the Jets generational futility, the Bills and Rams gave fans a shootout for the ages, the Lions took care of another Super Bowl rival and we had Bart Simpson throw a touchdown to his sister Lisa?

It’s fair to say Week 14 of the NFL had a LOT going on.

BART TO LISA FOR THE LEAD!@TheSimpsons Funday Football on Disney+ and ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/2jqG5dZZ5R

— NFL (@NFL) December 10, 2024

But!

With only a month left in the season, this is where the rubber hits the road and playoff dreams are formed, solidified and shattered.

In each conference, there’s a tier of two or three legitimate contenders, then another few teams that fancy their chances of going on a Supie run, then a handful of fascinating, weird playoff challengers… and then the rest of the league who range from ‘building for the future’ to ‘cooked’.

But the big question remains – outside of how much will Josh Allen win the MVP by, and how many more records can Saquon Barkley break – with Kansas City 12-1 but not looking at all convincing the entire year, is this the most wide-open season we’ve seen for years?

With a month to go, the three stand out Super Bowl favourites might loom over the rest of the NFL – Kansas City (12-1), Detroit (12-1) and Philly (11-2) – they each have big holes in their games: the Chiefs doinked their way to a miracle win over the Chargers, while the Lions defence looked shaky as they held off the Packers last Friday and the Eagles only just managed to squeak by the surprisingly frisky Panthers thanks to Xavier’s Legette dropped catch.

The division leaders after 14 weeks 👏

Which one surprises you the most? pic.twitter.com/tuNRJtoP96

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) December 11, 2024

Then there’s another handful of dangerous teams that fancy themselves contenders – Minnesota (11-2), Buffalo (10-3), Pittsburgh (10-3), Green Bay (9-4),Baltimore (8-5) – and would fancy their chances against any of the other teams at the top of the league in the playoffs.

Each, however, has question marks hanging over them. Can Sam Darnold keep up his amazing form? The Bills defence just gave up 44 points to the Rams: is that a recipe for success? The Steelers offence revolves around Russell Wilson NOT falling apart. Green Bay is 9-4 without looking as good as they did last year. Baltimore’s defence is a bottom 10 unit in points conceded and can’t stop anyone.

Most interesting might be the playoff teams that will believe they can go on a run and make some noise in the playoffs – Houston (8-5) – and then the teams almost making up the playoff numbers in Seattle (8-5), Washington (8-5), Denver (8-5) and the LA Chargers (8-5).

Interestingly, Kansas City isn’t close to top of the league in DVOA, the Chiefs sit 8th overall, with Detroit, Baltimore and Green Bay top 3, with the Chiefs offence ranked 13th overall not helping their case, while the Lions, Bills and Ravens explosive top 3 offences are propping those teams up.

They might feel more vulnerable than ever, but as pointed out last week, anyone who doubts the reigning back-to-back Super Bowl champs and Patrick Mahomes’ ability to get out a jam with a win need only rewatch their last four wins: a blocked FG, a walk-off FG as time expired, a botched opposition snap and a doinked FG that went IN to see that the Chiefs might just have football destiny on their side as they strive for a three-peat.

The odds certainly fancy that upper tier of teams, with Detroit still Super Bowl LIX favourites ahead of Kansas City, Philadelphia, Buffalo and Baltimore substantially rated ahead of Green Bay, Minnesota and Pittsburgh.

As for other trends, following a topsy-turvy Week 14 that delivered some head-scratching games – favourites are winning at only a 51.5% clip across the season, while total point over-unders remain slightly slanted towards the over, hitting at 52.5% for the year.

With the season now hitting its crescendo and seven teams already eliminated from playoff contention and another seven likely out of the running as well, Week 15 is the start of legitimate fighting for playoff seeding.

As for the Aussie NFL players, Jordan Mailiata of the Eagles continues to help Saquon Barkley set records, Baltimore’s Daniel Faalele is coming off a bye, while the Aussie punters saw Matthew Hayball in the news for getting screamed at by Saints interim coach Darren Rizzi, and Michael Dickson and Tory Taylor continue their excellent seasons.

Remarkably, after being told he wouldn’t have to punt too much, Tory Taylor has more punting yards (3,067) than his quarterback Caleb Williams has passing yards (2,746). Pour one out for Bears fans.

Anyway!

With all the byes done for every team and some unreal games this round, Aussie NFL fans have an awesome Week 15 slate to dig into with every team playing and two Monday night football games in store, so watch the NFL Straya breakdown above to see who should win and why.

As Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVeigh go at it again: can the Niners keep their season alive against division rival LA?

Can the Commanders lock away a playoff spot with a win over New Orleans?

Could Buffalo @ Detroit be a sneaky Super Bowl preview?

Will the Eagles be able to hold off a rampant Steelers at the Linc?

Do we get a Fail Mary repeat (this time on Sunday Night Football) as Green Bay visits Seattle?

Are either of the Monday Night Football games good?

Find out with NFL Straya’s NFL Week 15 preview and in the breakdown above.

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NFL WEEK 15 SCHEDULE

FRIDAY 12.15pm AEDT

LA Rams @ San Francisco

MONDAY 5am AEDT

Washington @ New Orleans

Cincinnati @ Tennessee

Miami @ Houston

Kansas City @ Cleveland

Dallas @ Carolina

NY Jets @ Jacksonville

Baltimore @ NY Giants

MONDAY 8.25am AEDT

Indianapolis @ Denver

New England @ Arizona

Tampa Bay @ LA Chargers

Pittsburgh @ Philly

Buffalo @ Detroit

MONDAY 12.20pm AEDT

Green Bay @ Seattle

TUESDAY 12.15pm AEDT

Chicago @ Minnesota

Atlanta @ Las Vegas

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