Wreck It Ralph: Which coaches are in footy’s hot seat as Alastair Clarkson, Nathan Buckley loom in 2023
Injuries annihilated Brett Ratten’s side this year but, with Alastair Clarkson and Nathan Buckley looming, the Saints coach will have no excuses in 2022. PRESSURE RATINGS
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If Justin Leppitsch’s single season in the media can transform him from a failed senior coach to one of footy’s most in-demand football minds, think what a year at Fox Footy will do for Nathan Buckley.
By August next year, if Alastair Clarkson has his way he will have spearheaded Tasmania’s successful bid for an AFL team and spent months overseas studying innovative ideas to revolutionise football again.
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The spectre of that pair – Buckley after a classy and dignified exit from Collingwood; Clarkson with a scrappy, messy departure that showed the fire is still in the belly – will hover all year.
There is never a time when senior coaches do not find themselves under intense pressure to perform to retain their highly paid jobs.
Perhaps the difference this year is that most of those coaches haven’t gone to the trade table to improve their lists.
Last year, Ken Hinkley added Aliir Aliir and Orazio Fantasia; Geelong secured Jeremy Cameron, Shaun Higgins and Isaac Smith; St Kilda recruited Brad Crouch and Brisbane brought in Joe Daniher.
This year those clubs tinkered at the edges but made no meaningful personnel decisions to improve their performances.
So just as Sam Mitchell will need to sing for his supper as a senior coach immediately, the improvement in so many sides will come from pure coaching performances.
A decade ago Carlton coach Ratten threw Chris Yarran to half back and Andrew Walker forward.
Walker kicked 56 goals after 37 in his previous seven seasons and Yarran exploded with a 409 possession season full of silky runs off half back.
And the Blues marched all the way to a semi-final before an agonising three-point loss to West Coast.
To be more specific, those clubs will need to find improvement from their entire coaching departments after an unprecedented flurry of assistant coaching moves across the AFL landscape.
Ask the Las Vegas Raiders how the cult of the senior coach as saviour is going right now.
Midway through a mediocre return to the NFL on a 10-year $10 million contract Jon Gruden was fired after unearthed emails showed a litany of sexist and racist remarks.
But, after a hail of terrible trade and personnel decisions, Super Bowl winning coach Gruden’s star had waned anyway.
So, while Adam Simpson and Ratten and Ken Hinkley and Stuart Dew will be on footy’s hot seat this year, they will rely more than ever on their own coaching instincts and the support of their coaching teams.
So what is your club’s greatest coaching challenge entering 2021?
ADELAIDE
The players love Matthew Nicks and the 39-game rebuild is on track.
But the challenge is to maximise the talent of the high draft picks including Chayce Jones (pick 9), Fisher McAsey (pick 6, no games in 2021) and Wayne Milera (pick 11 in 2015, coming back off a 2021 patella tear).
Having jettisoned the likes of Daniel Talia and Tom Lynch, the elite picks must turn into 200-gamers with serious impact to realise Adelaide’s aspirations.
BRISBANE
The Lions need to fire at the business end of the season after five finals losses in their past six finals, with four of those defeats at the Gabba.
Joe Daniher is what he is by now – a hugely talented forward whose best is incredible and worst is frustrating.
But if Chris Fagan can find an identifiable role for the returning Cam Rayner and get the best out of Nakia Cockatoo he can lessen the load on Daniher in finals and add to a small forward group that includes the brilliant Charlie Cameron, emerging star Zac Bailey (31.18 and 440 touches in 2021) and Lincoln McCarthy (36.15 in 2021).
It should be the best bunch of small forwards in the comp.
CARLTON
Of course Michael Voss needs to stop the five-goal runs from opponents and adopt a defensive methodology that stacks up even when the midfield is getting smacked around – with both of those priorities intertwined.
But Carlton fans are sick and tired of watching high draft picks or hugely talented players stagnate for reasons they can’t quite put their finger on.
So Vossy gets half a dozen passion projects – Mitch McGovern (15 goals in 17 games across 2020-21), Paddy Dow, Lochie O’Brien, Jack Martin, Zac Fisher (four goals in 10 games as a 2021 small forward), Zac Williams, Tom Williamson.
COLLINGWOOD
Craig McRae will want to play a more offensive game plan and why wouldn’t you when you have Justin Leppitsch marshalling the defence and Brayden Maynard, Darcy Moore and Jeremy Howe all as elite defenders.
But his real challenge is turning mid and late picks into players who could one day play in a Grand Final.
Last year the Pies added six national draft picks and two rookies.
Ollie Henry’s flashes of class stood out and a handful of Finn Macrae kicks late in the year smacked of something special.
Now Reef McInnes, Caleb Poulter, Liam McMahon, Beau McCreery (13 games, 11 goals, excellent pressure) Jack Ginnivan (six goals in five late-season games) need to keep marching forward.
ESSENDON
Essendon must find a key position star to score more regularly, so the narrative goes.
Well, as it turns out the Dons were fifth for scores per inside 50 and third for goals per inside 50.
But the club’s inside 50 targets in 2021 went like this – Cale Hooker 141, Peter Wright 113, Jake Stringer, 68, Harry Jones 66.
So with Hooker retiring but a highly efficient forward line, Ben Rutten has time to develop the key position targets that will eventually win him big finals with Jones, Zac Reid and Kaine Baldwyn all candidates.
FREMANTLE
Only two of Fremantle’s 12 losses were by under 20 points so it’s hard to say Nathan Fyfe’s simply extraordinary return of 6.21 from 31 shots cost the Dockers multiple games.
Footy’s worst case of the yips – he kicked 2.9 from set shots and had one other total miss – is a priority for the entire coaching team but with Rory Lobb staying put Fyfe will again get excellent forward match-ups he can only take advantage of when he starts nails his shots at goal.
GEELONG
With Tom Stewart in their side the Cats went from D50 to F50 with the third-most effective ratio in the comp and from half back to inside 50 in the most efficient manner in the comp.
You know what happened in the finals.
So it’s not about abandoning the slow and methodical ball movement, it’s about trialling a Plan B – quicker ball movement, more risk involved – against the very best sides in the home-and-away season.
Chris Scott would be able to launch a detailed defence of the club’s ball movement – few would lose an argument against Scott – but he would also know exactly when and why it fell down.
GOLD COAST
Rowell and Rankine. Yes, Stewart Dew needs to get rid of the uncompetitive quarters and seems excited to try Jack Lukosius as a wing-forward using his sumptuous skills to hit leading targets inside 50.
But if Dew can rediscover the spark in Izak Rankine – finding a better balance of WTF moments and consistency to his teammates – and spark Matt Rowell again after a ho-hum return from injury he’s well on the way to bouncing up the ladder.
GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY
The big game goals including the sealer in the 2019 semi-final handed Brent Daniels a four-year extension through to 2025, but he kicked only 2.4 this year from 13 games in an injury-hit season.
Toby Greene isn’t back until Round 5 and manager Colin Young’s frustration at the Giants’ unwillingness to trade Bobby Hill suggests he only has 12 months left of his GWS career.
So after a brilliant coaching season Leon Cameron needs to maximise small forwards like Daniel, Daniel Lloyd (20 goals in 2021) and late-season revelation Zach Sproule (115.5 in 10 games).
HAWTHORN
Alastair Clarkson must have got sick of watching his stars walk off the park with 30 touches to their name but the Hawks having suffered another midfield belting.
The Hawks were 15th for clearance differential and 14th for contested possession differential despite 754 Tom Mitchell’s touches and 473 possessions to Jaeger O’Meara.
So getting bang for buck is important but so is developing midfield depth so the Hawks keep their head above water when the second-tier onball unit is in the centre square.
MELBOURNE
Got nothing for you.
After a 20-win season that included a draw and losses by one, nine, 17 and 20 points Simon Goodwin’s challenge is above the shoulders.
Maintain the rage. Keep them hungry.
Whatever cliche you want. The Demons have enough improvement left that the coaching challenge is not about Xs and Os, it’s about finding new themes and narratives to push the Demons to greater heights.
NORTH MELBOURNE
Jason Horne-Francis will take care of himself and Aidan Corr needs to stay injury free to help Ben McKay with Robbie Tarrant Richmond bound.
David Noble had a cracking first year with Rounds 13-19 the highlight as the Roos defended well and won heaps of turnovers (fourth in the league) to show they can play a modern, sustainable brand.
But with Callum Coleman-Jones at Arden St and Tristan Xerri not traded, how can Noble give his rucks enough licks of the ice cream with Todd Goldstein 33 but not planning on going anywhere anytime soon?
Goldstein attended 454 centre bounces to Todd Campbell’s 67 and Xerri's 46, while Noble might give mid-season addition Jacob Edwards a taste as a ruck-forward at some stage next year.
PORT ADELAIDE
The Power plans to rejig their midfield with Zac Butters, Xavier Duursma and Connor Rozee playing serious midfield time including big centre square minutes.
But it will be a significant change to the established midfield given Duursma attended a single centre bounce and Butters (65 centre bounces) and Rozee (62) were only in there about 10 per cent of the time.
Does it push Travis Boak to the wing and half forward at times next year despite all he has achieved in recent seasons since coming back into the centre square?
RICHMOND
Damien Hardwick needs to work out how much of the club’s inability to break down opponents was about his decimated midfield and what was due to new rules which hampered his side’s pressure game.
The Tigers still attempted to play their old forward half pressure game and succeeded in fits and starts.
But Hardwick is juggling plenty – a new-look backline without Bachar Houli and David Astbury, the desire to win a fourth flag in a dynasty, and the reality he must fast-track midfield and forward replacements for Trent Cotchin and Jack Riewoldt in what could be their final seasons.
ST KILDA
Saints fans are absolutely right that injuries annihilated Brett Ratten’s side this year, with the 162 games lost to the best 22 the most in the comp.
But GWS lost the next most – 156 – and still won a final while finding out a heap about the young new defence.
So Jade Gresham will return to the midfield and Ratten will try to make order of key position forwards including Max King, Cooper Sharman, Tim Membrey, swingman Josh Battle and ruck-forward Rowan Marshall knowing he needs a hot season start to douse the chatter about his future.
SYDNEY
Nick Blakey has everything he needs to turn into a game-breaking wingman like the departing Jordan Dawson – speed, a booming left foot, aerial prowess.
But the irony is that only when Blakey slotted into defence post Round 15 after 55 per cent of wing time before that did half back Dawson replace him and begin his blinding late-season run on the wing.
So John Longmire might give Blakey another chance.
Or do either of Braeden Campbell or Errol Gulden have the tank yet for wing opportunities?
Or Justin McInerney, after 379 touches and 7.2 in 2011?
It’s going to be fun watching who emerges in Dawson’s wake.
WEST COAST
No team in football kicked the ball backwards more than West Coast in the home-and-away season.
Adam Simpson knows plenty of his stars played banged up for most of the season but the Eagles were also last in the comp in moving the ball from the back half to the forward half.
They were the No. 2 kick-mark team in the comp.
In trying to play pretty football they were instead only pretty ordinary.
So can Simpson retain the best of his coaching DNA – which won this club a flag – while introducing a more chaotic element that brings the heat when his team isn’t precise retention-based footy.
The Eagles chose the more poised and clinical Sam Petrevski-Seton over the raging bull Sam Powell-Pepper in the battle of the hyphens, so which of his Eagles midfielders are going to get down and dirty in 2022 given it won’t be ‘SPP’.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
The Dogs didn’t do a lot wrong in 2021 but in the Grand Final Max Gawn was so in touch with Melbourne’s ruck-onball synergy he benched himself to allow Luke Jackson to thrive in the flag-winning burst.
Could the Dogs boast that kind of understanding?
Tim English was in 42 per cent of the club’s centre bounces this year, Stef Martin 24 per cent, Jordan Sweet 24 per cent, Lewis Young 11 per cent.
The Dogs don’t need much more to go right to be holding up the premiership in 11 months, but turning English into the legitimate No. 1 ruck over summer is a great start.
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