Wreck It Ralph: Richmond primed to build huge draft haul after likely wooden spoon
Richmond are on track to finish 18th for the first time but by trading a couple of aging premiership stars, they could walk into this year’s draft with an epic hand of picks.
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“The thing about Nate is that he won’t die wondering. He wants the moment”.
Essendon recruiter Adrian Dodoro said last year as the club jumped up the draft order to secure 193cm forward Nate Caddy.
In an era of 208cm key forwards like Sam Darcy, a player literally 15cm shorter seemed a risk, even despite his junior pedigree. And yet Dodoro loved his extroverted nature and capacity to rise to the occasion.
As coach Brad Scott gushed over Caddy’s impact on Friday night, the win-loss record said it all. Three games for Caddy and three wins for the Bombers, even if his radar has been off with 3.6 so far.
The Dons loved Caddy so much – and had such a positional requirement to get a key tall – that they handed over pick 31 to Geelong, just to get up from pick 11 to 10.
It was part of a flurry of first-round moves.
The Dogs traded 10, 17 and a future first-rounder (which currently sits at pick 8) for midfielder Ryley Sanders. He has so much potential, but is averaging only 65 ranking points and the young Tasmanian yet to set the world on fire.
Adelaide traded picks 11, 15 and a future second-rounder for pick 8 (Dan Curtin) and 17.
With Curtin having played only two AFL games so far – and showing he is probably more of a halfback or third tall than a key defender – he needs to improve to frank that decision.
The GWS Giants were so keen on Tasmanian James Leake they gave away a future second-rounder linked to the Crows to move up from 18 to 17.
Leake popped a quadricep three times before his June VFL debut, but after three games is already showing he could be anything, justifying the Giants’ high hopes for a 188cm prospect who could play anywhere across the field.
So as the AFL national carnival draws to a close, which AFL teams are preparing to make similar moves?
With no Harley Reid in this year’s draft, no one is desperately clamouring for the No.1 overall pick with insane collections of picks to hand to the new 18th-ranked side, Richmond.
But as the Bombers showed with the Caddy selection, even finding a way to get one pick up the draft order can reap significant rewards.
RICHMOND
The club’s draft rivals believe the Tigers are zeroing in on 194cm Eastern Ranges midfielder Josh Smillie. The Tigers just inherited the No.1 pick – on current ladder position – from North Melbourne and will surely keep it, given they are injury-ravaged and the Kangaroos are rising with a bullet. The Tigers would love the No.1 pick to be clear-cut and a Harley Reid type, but some recruiters still believe Smillie and Victorian mid Finn O’Sullivan are the best two kids, then a gap to the rest including Vic Metro mid Jagga Smith, Lions’ father-son prospect Levi Ashcroft and Victorian interceptor Luke Trainor.
The problem is that Smillie hasn’t exactly set the world on fire in his three under-18 games so far, with a clash to come against Vic Country on Sunday.
Smillie showed glimpses in a nine-clearance contest against Western Australia, but has 17, 22 and 20 touches in those U18 games and wouldn’t be a lock for All Australian honours.
So ideally he torches Vic Country, has an even stronger back-end to his season and makes it easy for the Tigers, who need more elite mids to help Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper.
What is the absolute best draft haul Richmond could secure if they wanted to maximise their draft hand? Right now they have pick 1, 21, 36 (Fremantle’s second-rounder), 39 and 41 plus a heap of back-end picks.
They could secure pick 10 to 13 for Baker and two first-rounders for Rioli, albeit the Roos one, which ends up at pick 28 to 30. So they could have pick 1, 8 (the Dogs’ first-rounder for Rioli), pick 12 (for Baker), 21, 28 (the Roos-end-of-first-rounder), 36, 39, and 41.
Those picks will shuffle around with father-son and Next Generation Academy picks, but it would give them three top-15 picks, five top-30 picks and eight selections within 41.
It’s a spectacular starting point for the rejig, restump and rewire under Adem Yze, even before unrestricted free agent Jack Graham considers his future.
NORTH MELBOURNE
How many mids can the Roos amass? Especially with Luke Davies-Uniacke pledging his loyalty via the Herald Sun and Will Phillips hitting back hard in the last month.
It’s why recruiters wonder whether the Roos would consider dropping back in the draft order to take 195cm Sandringham Dragons defender Luke Trainor, the best key back in the crop.
He has a link to the Roos as the grandson of 1000-goalkicker Doug Wade and would fit perfectly into a defence that will have Charlie Comben, Griffin Logue, developing tall Wil Dawson, halfback Riley Hardiman and Aidan Corr.
He might be available in the pick 4 to 7 region, but he’s not quite worth pick No.2.
If the Roos finish the year in 17th position, rivals might do plenty to secure a selection that could get them Finn O’Sullivan, a brilliant mid who only just returned from a fractured finger on the weekend.
Could the Roos drop back a handful of spots to get Trainor and also get another top-12 pick?
We know Alastair Clarkson went early on key talls in his Hawthorn rebuild, so could the Roos give up pick 2, but get Trainor and a pick that might secure them one of high-marking key position Whitlock twins, Matt and Jack?
WEST COAST
The Eagles only have their current picks – 3 and 23 – but need to get plenty done. The most likely scenario is that West Coast splits that No.3 draft pick into a pair of first-rounders so it has a pick in the teens to satisfy the Tigers for Liam Baker and another selection to go local again. The Herald Sun reported earlier this year that it is the Eagles who Baker wants to get to – not the Dockers – despite their trio of draft picks to get a deal done.
So could the Eagles secure Baker and then find a second early draft pick for a player like Bo Allan – the Peel Thunder mid who has averaged 20 touches and 3.7 clearances in his three games for WA so far in the U18 championships?
Which clubs could the Eagles split that No.3 draft pick with? Ironically, the Dockers – even if they are the losing party on Baker – and the Suns, who also have three first-round picks.
GOLD COAST
The Suns are sitting pretty with three first rounders (their own at pick 7, the Dogs’ selection at pick 8, and the Roos’ end-of-first-rounder at pick 20).
Academy kid Leo Lombard is roaring up the draft charts and against Vic Country just peeled off a 28-possession, five clearance, one-goal, 10 contested possession display. On pure talent, Lombard is easily in the top-10, even if clubs sometimes let academy selections drift back a few spots as they did for the Suns’ 2023 pick 14, Jake Rogers.
The Suns will keep all options open given the bidding system might change, and the Tigers might soften on retaining Daniel Rioli. Right now, the Tigers are saying he’s contracted and going nowhere, but despite their public position, Gold Coast would offer two first-rounders for Rioli given one of them would end up about pick 28-30 after father-son and NGA selections.
In an ideal world, the Suns would move up the draft order to take a top-six pick before Lombard is bid on anywhere from pick 7-13 by a rival. They couldn’t take a top-six pick, match a Lombard bid with back-end picks and then still have enough picks Rioli, could they?
With Zeke Uwland as next year’s likely No.1 pick? They still have interest in Giants half back Isaac Cumming, who is a free agent. So they have so many options, all of them good, even if Rioli stays at Punt Rd.
CARLTON
The Blues have made clear to the AFL they are totally in favour of changes to the bidding system, fully aware it will hurt them when they secure Andrew Walker’s son Cody in the 2026 national draft. He is also linked to the Tigers through their NGA academy, but he wants to play at Carlton. So they just want 12 months’ grace in changes to the bidding system after assembling a collection of late picks for the Camporeale twins after trading Paddy Dow to St Kilda last year. Father-son Ben Camporeale has had a superb and extremely consistent U18 carnival for South Australia – 27, 28, 23 and 29 touches, an average of six clearances, 3.8 tackles, and kicking at 76 per cent efficiency.
Lucas Camporeale vs Vic Metro:
— Carlton Blues Fans (@CarltonFCBlues) July 2, 2024
19 touches @ 74%
equal team high 7 marks
4 tackles
3 inside 50s
3 rebound 50s
2 clearances
1 score involvement
1 intercept pic.twitter.com/Bt1vkFIayN
He could get a bid anywhere from pick 15 to 25 and a Carlton side that currently has pick 17 would love to take a first-round pick before him.
It might be a fraction cheeky, given they have been so vocal about the pending changes – gaming the system to trade up for a first-round pick before they match a bid on Ben Camporeale. But it would be silly not to trade-up if the system remains the same, and they have the draft collateral to do so if need be. The Blues want to re-sign Matt Owies and Jack Martin, asking in-demand Owies to remain patient after re-signing the likes of Lachie Fogarty in similar circumstances as late as September last year.
Jesse Motlop – who kicked four goals in the VFL on the weekend – is yet to play an AFL game this season due to injury, so they just don’t know what their best collection of small forwards is, with Jack Silvagni to return next year.
Martin has interest from elsewhere so might move on, which would give them the pick to help move up the draft order ahead of a Ben Camporeale bid, which they would then match.
Then they will match a bid on Lucas Camporeale later in the draft.
ADELAIDE
All options are still on the table for the Crows, which has pick 4 if a club is prepared to offer up a quality, experienced player and yet could still end up going to the draft.
Pick 4 would secure them a quality plug-and-play midfielder. Could they trade up for an elite mid like Jagga Smith – or even hope he falls to their pick – who might be perfect for their needs as a star mid with a lovely sidestep and acceleration to boot.
Their next pick is 29, given they gave up their own second-rounder to GWS Giants.
Until the trade period ends, the Jack Lukosius rumours won’t be fully extinguished, while they need another ruckman and should make a beeline for Essendon backup Nick Bryan, even if he takes a year or two to take over from current ruckman Reilly O’Brien.
Father-son pick Tyler Welsh, son of Scott, is an exciting forward prospect, but his national carnival has been just OK – three goals, four goals, then 0.2 against Western Australia and 1.2 against Vic Metro, when he played on Luke Trainor.
Welsh is also a low possession player – six, seven, three and eight across four games. So ideally they would have multiple early picks or find an experienced star before matching a bid on him.
GEELONG
Steve Hocking made clear the club was “in the market” for an established midfielder on Saturday. Take it as read – their first-rounder (currently pick 14) will be used on Bailey Smith or someone of his ilk. As Hocking said, we believe we can compete again in coming years if we can prudently add some experienced midfield depth. So the Cats are chasing hard once more. Love it.
HAWTHORN
Pick 6 is a nice draft spot to pick the eyes out of the draft after the elite midfielders have gone or handover a top-10 pick for Bailey Smith. Who knows where Smith ends up, but the Hawks will have a much better pick than the Cats and he does live in the inner east. They will pitch their new Dingley expansion 20 minutes down the road, their happy young group, and their brilliant young coach. The Cats are favourites, but there is still room to move on the Smith front, even if rivals believe Geelong is well in front.
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