Wreck it Ralph: The biggest trade moves in your club’s modern history analysed, why $5 million deal for Josh Battle makes sense

Hawthorn’s huge offer to lure Josh Battle from St Kilda isn’t just about shoring up its backline. As JON RALPH explains, there’s another key to why the Hawks could offer close to $1m a year.

Bryce Gibbs, Dane Beams, Jared Polec, Lance Franklin

Chris Scott says that salary cap management is the most important tool for any club as it builds a premiership list. As in, don’t squander your cap on mediocre talent and don’t fill up your list with mid-priced list-cloggers.

So what would he think of Hawthorn offering $5 million to a defender who has never been a best-and-fairest winner or an All Australian squad member and whose biggest achievement is a 2019 Rising Star nomination?

Scott would say this: welcome to the new world of free agency.

Hawthorn is increasingly confident that Josh Battle is leaning towards crossing to the Hawks as the dream team combination – pro-scout Jarryd Roughead and coach Sam Mitchell – work their magic.

Ironically, Roughead left the Saints for Hawthorn for a promotion, but also feeling the St Kilda football environment was not the open, collaborative workplace that he was sure he would find at the Hawks under Mitchell.

Josh Battle has reportedly been offered a massive six-year deal by Hawthorn. Kelly Defina/Getty Images)

So now he’s gone to work on Battle, offering a six-year deal that would have to hit $950,000-a-season to secure a first-round trigger for free agency.

To be frank, the only way this works is if St Kilda goes home happy with a top-10 compensation pick for Battle, who is an unrestricted free agent.

But why would Hawthorn give up so much cash? Not too far short of what the Cats offered Jeremy Cameron – as one of the best players in the competition – only a few years ago.

Because of the premium on free agents, the insane player market in 2024 after a recent pay deal and the cautionary tale of Port Adelaide last year as it secured its key-position backs.

Essendon won the Ben McKay free-agency race (ahead of Port Adelaide and Hawthorn) and secured him on a fat contract while also retaining its first-round pick for Nate Caddy.

The Power got Ratugolea and Brandon Zerk-Thatcher (as well as Jordon Sweet and Ivan Soldo), but in their trade machinations had to give up all of their 2023 draft collateral and their 2024 first-round pick.

Ratugolea and Zerk-Thatcher have been solid on their day, but their first pick last year was at No.48 and the Power’s first-round pick this year – handed to the Dockers – is currently sitting at No.10.

So why would Hawthorn offer Battle that crazy cash? Because with vast salary cap space to spare, handing him as much as $1m in total more than he’s worth over the life of a six-year deal is absolutely worth it to preserve their current first-round pick.

It is currently at No.6, only one pick later than the No.5 selection they used to select the impetuous and irresistible Nick Watson.

The Power gave up their draft hand to get Esava Ratugolea and Brandon Zerk-Thatcher. Picture: Mark Stewart

If Battle departs the Saints, it will be because Mitchell painted a picture of a beckoning premiership, of the club’s vast Dingley facility due to be completed next year, and of the opportunity playing defence alongside James Sicily.

Is he worth it? He is, if it allows Sicily to drift forward like he did against Fremantle, at a club where Mitch Lewis might only be back around this time next year after his ACL tear.

What Hawthorn and St Kilda know is that Battle’s numbers don’t leap off the page, but his impact is much more profound. Since round 12, he ranks 14th in the competition for intercept possessions, but he also does so putting his opponent to sleep, while also averaging 18 touches and 80 per cent efficiency and hauling in an average of 2.5 intercept marks.

He kept Jeremy Cameron goalless in round 1, and has also kept Beau McCreery, Mitch Georgiades, Jack Lukosius and Will Hayward goalless. Battle also held Cam Zurhaar to one goal in 40 minutes.

So for Hawthorn, there comes a moment in time where wildly overspending for a free agent is the perfect list play.

St Kilda had hoped to bring in its own free agents this year and instead there is the prospect the Saints could be losing them.

So Graeme Allan’s chequebook will be open to ensure – at best – Battle stays and – at worst – he has driven Hawthorn’s price up to secure that first-round compensation.

If the Saints lose Josh Battle, they would be hoping the blow is cushioned by picking up a player like Luke Trainor. Picture: Josh Chadwick/AFL Photos

Picking the exact price for a first-rounder trigger is guesswork – taking in the age of the player and whether they fit into the top-five per cent of contracts for players aged over 25 – but he would be driving AFL official Ned Guy mad trying to get a sense of exactly where that price point would lie.

If they did lose Battle, a club that has already debuted all five of its 2024 draftees would land in a spot in the draft to take an intercept defender like Victorian defenders Luke Trainor or Tobie Travaglia. The pair was involved in the decisive contest of the under-18 championships on the weekend on Sunday and both look top-10 contenders.

It would be another message to Saints fans about being patient, but turning a No.39 draft pick in Battle with eight years of service into a top-eight pick would be rescuing something out of the wreckage. While also saving vast cap space for a free agency bid in 2025.

Battle has six weeks to consider his future, while the clubs ponder final offers for his services.

Fremantle’s former top-10 pick Liam Henry was nearly seduced by Mitchell’s pitch last year, but he still found his way to St Kilda. But Mitchell now has another year of evidence to pitch.

Battle is about to get rich either way, and both clubs can win even if he does leave Moorabbin.