Wreck It Ralph: How many of your club’s top 10 players are out of contract in 2023?
Plenty of clubs will be in attack mode come the end of the year. And one side in particular is flush with cash. Jon Ralph assesses every club.
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After a summer of speculation Collingwood, Adelaide and Richmond have already shown they can improve their lists through the contributions of Tom Mitchell, Izak Rankine and Tim Taranto.
But while some clubs are perfectly primed to make even more improvements to their lists in coming seasons others have warning signs flashing over key out-of-contract players.
The Herald Sun’s exhaustive project rating every player for the ultimate player rankings saw Glenn McFarlane and Mick McGuane assembling their best 10 players from every team.
Jon Ralph sifts through those rankings to assess the big picture contract position of every club.
Is your club in attack mode (with ample cap space and ready to launch at rival stars), sitting pretty (having locked away its established stars) or are there warning signs (multiple stars out of contract or an elite player pondering a move elsewhere?)
ADELAIDE
ATTACK MODE
The rankings have free agent Tom Doedee as the fourth-most valuable player at Adelaide and while the speculation had been that he might jump ship after missing the captaincy, he has made all the right noises in recent days about wanting to re-sign at the Crows.
If he does want to leave, they have every right to match a bid for him.
Taylor Walker’s high ranking (eight) shows the club still relies upon him to get the job done and while there was genuine interest in him last year if he did want to move, surely we can do without a contract saga if he plays on given he turns 33 on Anzac Day and won’t be playing anywhere else.
With cap space, their first-round pick and the Roos second-rounder they should consider all options as local players like Kysaiah Pickett, Will Day and Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera fall out of contract.
BRISBANE
SITTING PRETTY
In a spectacular position with every one of the club’s top 10 contracted apart from former captain Dayne Zorko. Remember the days of the go-home five?
The Lions have worked hard to become a destination club and the summer acquisitions show how successful that has become.
Dev Robertson is the one who rivals will circle if he can’t get midfield time but as the rankings suggest (rating of six, backed to get more than eight games in 2023) he has upside and should get enough game time to stay this year.
CARLTON
SITTING PRETTY
Contract extensions for Lewis Young and Sam Docherty in recent weeks mean the club’s top 10 are all happy and locked away, a superb position for the Blues.
It has cost plenty of cap space given Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow didn’t come cheap with bumper extensions, but imagine the funny money that would have been offered by June this year if the Blues allowed the free agents to enter contract years unsigned.
Tom De Koning (6.5, accused of “spasmodic performances”) is the big unsigned prize across the competition but if the Blues lose him they will still be fine.
Worst case scenario St Kilda offers him $4 million over 5 years - or Sydney even longer - then the Blues put their hand up for two first-rounders in an upcoming super draft while re-signing Marc Pittonet.
COLLINGWOOD
ATTACK MODE
Players don’t want to leave Collingwood.
Not even Brodie Grundy wanted to depart despite him finding a new home at Melbourne.
Of the club’s top three ranked players both Darcy Moore and Jordan De Goey both rejected bigger offers to sign long-term and Jack Crisp signed a three-year extension in December.
Jeremy Howe (an eight ranking) just added another year to his deal to lock him in to the end of 2024.
Last year’s surprise packet Ash Johnson is out of contract but happy at the Pies, while veterans Steele Sidebottom, Scott Pendlebury and Mason Cox are also out.
Pendlebury got a two-year deal last time after some gnashing of teeth but will be happy to sign one-year extensions from here on out.
Now comes the opportunity. With cap space and the reality that Collingwood is a destination club, who will the next targeted acquisitions be for the Pies?
ESSENDON
ATTACK MODE
There are some areas of concern here for the Dons given Mason Redman (an eight ranking, second only behind Zach Merrett) and Darcy Parish (7.5) are all out of contract.
Peter Wright (eight) signed a four-year deal then went down with a shoulder reconstruction hours later but that is the flukey nature of football.
The Dons have three million in cap space and they will to use it for players in the right age profile.
Parish will take time with his free agency decision but likes what the Dons are cooking under Brad Scott and showed in round 1 his midfield impact won’t be cut by added midfield depth.
Redman is also a white-hot free agent and given there aren’t many intercept talls on the market it wouldn’t surprise if a rival made a major play for him. But as a free agent coming off a fourth placing in the best and fairest he could secure over $600,000 a year.
So the Dons will have to pay up but should do so knowing they can then get into attack mode from a list perspective.
FREMANTLE
ATTACK MODE
The big dogs in the top 10 of Fremantle’s rankings are all locked away apart from Nathan Fyfe, who is happy to play out some early rounds then consider a new deal.
It will be a hefty cut from the $1.1-$1.2 million he was paid as a Brownlow Medal winning superstar, but he believes he had great football left him in at 31 years of age.
Will Brodie (ranked 6.5) is in the second year of his two-season deal that saw him splitting his 2022 contract at the Suns in half to get more tenure.
If he jumps out of the blocks he will deserve an early extension, while Josh Treacy is out of contract and in front of Jy Amiss in the key forward pecking order.
The Dockers are keen on Aaron Naughton and Mitch Georgiades and won’t get them, but can they make ‘Kosi’ Pickett an offer he can’t refuse?
GEELONG
SITTING PRETTY
As Chris Scott said last year, one of the club’s competitive advantages is salary cap cap management. Tyson Stengle got an early contract extension, while Mark Blicavs is a free agent worth plenty to rivals but about to sign a two-year deal.
Tom Hawkins took a pay cut to remain at the club for 2023, but he isn’t playing for the $300,000 figure bandied around in some quarters.
The clear watch is Esava Ratugolea, who the ultimate rankings have at only a 4.5.
As they state, a permanent shift down back is on the cards but if the Cats lost him they would scarcely miss a beat unless Jack Henry’s foot issues become career-threatening.
Sam De Koning’s brother Tom would be the perfect successor to Tom Hawkins and or Rhys Stanley but the Cats won’t be the highest bidder if he does want to leave Carlton.
GOLD COAST
SITTING PRETTY
For the first time in their short tenure the Suns aren’t worrying about player retention and instead are locking away their king pins long term.
The top 20 in the player rankings are all but locked away, let alone their top 10.
The glaring exception is Izak Rankine, who went home last year and showcased his dazzling repertoire of skills on Sunday.
But the key signings this year are role players like Nick Holman and Malcolm Rosas so the priority in the back-end of the year will be sign up players like Ben King (tied to the Suns until 2024) to deals well into the 2020s.
GWS
SITTING PRETTY
Free agent Harry Himmelberg is the only one of the top 10 in the ultimate rankings out of contract as the Giants’ off-season manoeuvring finally realigned their cap space.
Tom Green signed a new four-year deal and franked that promise with a barnstorming round 1 display, with Lachie Ash the next young Giant set to sign a new contract.
Those negotiations are on track, with Himmelberg sure to draw interest from Adelaide and multiple clubs aware of his talents as a swingman.
But if he left it would be for a bumper deal that would likely secure the Giants a top-12 compensation pick.
HAWTHORN
ATTACK MODE
Hawthorn has vast cap space, a determination to bring in more young elite talent, and few priority signings apart from South Australian midfielder Will Day.
Day is keen to hold off talks deep into the season but will get the midfield time to allow him to turn into a top six player at the Hawks.
Chad Wingard is the highest rated player out of contract (seven in the ultimate ratings) and while he turns 30 in July the Hawks clearly can’t get rid of more established talent.
James Worpel (6.5) bounced back from a poor 2022 in round 1 but will need to maintain the rage.
The Hawks need to make a free agent splash and keep their No.1 overall pick, which on round 1 form could secure them Harley Reid in the 2023 super draft.
They have the Dogs second-rounder but have traded away their own second-rounder in the Josh Weddle deal and that pick already looks like slotting in at around pick 19-23.
MELBOURNE
WARNING SIGNS
The top 10 on the ultimate player rankings are all signed away. The No.11 player is the worry.
Kysaiah Pickett (7.5, “excitement machine who must be given more midfield minutes”) is going to get ridiculous offers to return to SA or WA.
The Demons are confident he will stay and sign a four or five-year deal but the better he plays the more clubs will ponder offering him $5 million over six years or deals of that scope.
Trent Rivers and James Jordon must be re-signed but it’s all about the Kosi show.
NORTH MELBOURNE
ATTACK MODE
Let’s get into glass-half-full mode.
Ben McKay will be offered ridiculous money elsewhere.
Despite their round 1 win the Roos are probably still a bottom-five team.
So if he leaves they get two top-six picks in a superdraft, a year after turning Jason Horne-Francis’s loss into Harry Sheezel and George Wardlaw.
It would limit their capacity to bring in another free agent, but they probably want players in a younger age demographic anyway.
Todd Goldstein and Hugh Greenwood are out of contract from the rankings top 10 but who knows where Goldstein’s year will take him?
PORT ADELAIDE
SITTING PRETTY
If the Power keep surging up the table playing the kind of football they played against Brisbane, Mitch Georgiades and Miles Bergman won’t be going anywhere.
But everyone will come for Georgiades - Victorian clubs and WA-based clubs - so they will have to pay up to secure him.
Out of contract forward Charlie Dixon just gave the Power another reminder of his class in round 1 as he looks for another quality contract despite turning 33 this year.
The industry discussion is that the Power might try to drag home Kysaiah Pickett or a similarly talented player.
But their best current draft pick is Collingwood’s second-rounder (they traded their first and second picks of 2023) and the Pies selection will likely be 30 plus.
It makes big fish trades difficult unless they trade off a Josh Sinn type as part of the deal.
RICHMOND
SITTING PRETTY
Only Jack Riewoldt of the top 15 is out of contract from the ultimate player rankings.
But loyal free agents Nathan Broad (6.5, “Mr Dependable”) and Kamdyn McIntosh (6, “Significant role player”) will need to be locked away.
Their free agency status will mean they are paid a premium to stay but with Trent Cotchin and Jack Riewoldt likely retiring there is cap space available.
Losing them as free agents would secure only late compensation - maybe third-round picks - so they are priority signings.
If the Tigers want to bring in talent it might have to be through free agency given they don’t have a first-rounder and their best pick might be in the early 30s.
ST KILDA
ATTACK MODE
Free agent Jade Gresham is the only real issue from the top 10 of the player ratings (8, “arguably the club’s most gifted player”) and while he isn’t in a hurry to sign on, no one at St Kilda is overly concerned.
If he can stay on the park after 18 games last year everything points to a long-term extension.
Hunter Clark started the season with enough promise to believe he might flourish with a fresh start after his aborted trade, while Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (5.5, “Saints, just give him the footy”) must be locked away on another two-year deal to allow him to flourish.
St Kilda loves Carlton’s Tom De Koning and will surely be asking about Mitch Georgiades as a foil for Max King so the balance is whether to give away prized picks in an elite draft or pay up for a star who would require multiple early selections.
SYDNEY
ATTACK MODE
The Swans will finally be able to consider acquisition rather than retention this year given an improved cap picture.
Of their top 10, the seventh-ranked player Dane Rampe (8, “Sydney’s general”) and eighth-ranked Lance Franklin (eight) are both out of contract.
But they are still very well paid while Tom Hickey (6.5) has just turned 32.
So it is no surprise that the Swans are prepared to have a huge crack at Tom De Koning with speculation of an eight-year deal being offered.
They have signed up so many of their youngsters and midfield stars that a succession plan for their key position players can now take place.
They were keen on Griffin Logue last year but missed out to North Melbourne, so watch this space as they try to improve their ruck and key position stocks at both ends.
WEST COAST
ATTACK MODE
As usual West Coast looks in list limbo with some young kids emerging but their highly-paid stars still taking up the lion’s share of the salary cap but not changing the course of games.
Jeremy McGovern (8.5, “We are expecting a rebound this season”) is keen to sign a new deal as his monster seven-season contract comes to an end, with talks to kick off soon.
Veterans Luke Shuey, Shannon Hurn and Jamie Cripps are all out of contract again.
But the priority has to be securing more early draft selections after three debuts on the weekend.
Thankfully the Eagles not only have their first two selections, they have the Power’s second-rounder too.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
SITTING PRETTY
List boss Sam Power has already done a lot of his heavy lifting this year by signing free agents Tom Liberatore and Ryan Gardner as well as second-year phenom Sam Darcy on a two-year extension.
Next on the priority signing list is Ed Richards (5.5, “This bloke is evolving and improving before our eyes”) with restricted free agent Bailey Williams (5.5) under rated but surely not a flight risk.
Aaron Naughton is signed to 2024 and will have a long list of suitors but his manager Andrew McDougall is adamant he isn’t interested in a move back to Perth at the end of this year.
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