Wreck It Ralph: 14 reasons why Hawthorn deserve to be premiership favourites
Right now, the Hawks are deserved premiership favourites, writes JON RALPH. But how do they do with without the big gun key forward? One factor looms as the secret to their success.
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Sam Mitchell’s decision to overlook his premiership teammate Jack Gunston in the opening round says everything about Hawthorn’s voyage of self-discovery.
By the end of that night as the Hawks took care of Sydney at the SCG they were officially premiership favourites.
It is still hard to believe right now that they are footy’s best side given Greater Western Sydney and Brisbane at their best are battle-hardened, brilliant and stacked with A-graders.
But it doesn’t mean the Hawks won’t be the worthy premiership favourites by September.
Despite injuries to key forwards Calsher Dear and Mitch Lewis, Mitchell overlooked his good mate Gunston in favour of Mabior Chol and a fleet-footed bunch of small forwards.
The rationale was this – we need to find out more about what makes us tick.
Hawthorn’s wannabe brat-packers that day stunk it up – Nick Watson, Jack Ginnivan and Connor Macdonald didn’t get near it and Chol kicked only a single goal.
But the Hawks still found a way home through midfield dominance, Will Day’s three goals and two majors to Lloyd Meek as James Sicily eventually wandered forward to kick a key late goal.
This is a side that just finds a way to win but is also prepared to take short-term risks for medium-term gain.
Last year Hawthorn’s rate of improvement was so exponential that a side that started 0-5 was absolutely bashing footy’s best teams by round 20.
They didn’t just fluke a finals victory over the Dogs.
They beat Collingwood in round 20 by 66 points, beat Adelaide by the same margin the following week, beat Carlton by 74 points (round 22) then touched up easybeats Richmond and North Melbourne by a combined 187 points before the six-goal elimination final victory.
So if they can improve at that rate, there is no reason they will not be the true premiership favourites by the same point this year.
Here are the points of difference the Hawks have on some of their key rivals and reasons why they might be the true premiership favourites by September.
14 REASONS TO FEAR THE HAWKS
1. THE HAWKS KICK IT LIKE A DREAM
In a year where kicking efficiency and ball movement are trumping pure contest dominance the Hawks have elite kicks in spades.
Karl Amon, Massimo D’Ambrosio, Jarman Impey, James Sicily, Dylan Moore, Josh Battle, Blake Hardwick, Cam Mackenzie and Connor Macdonald are just some of the elite or above average kicks in this side.
In a year where Essendon and Carlton can barely retain possession with a chain of kicks the Hawks just don’t cough it up.
Hawthorn won their flags under Alastair Clarkson by tactical innovation.
As the game goes back to ball movement and punishing opponents in space, look at the Hawthorn kick ratings against Carlton on a dirty night with pouring rain.
And consider that anything over plus five per cent is off the charts good.
Impey and Josh Ward were plus 12 per cent, Moore plus nine, D’Ambrosio plus eight (with the kick of the night), Changkuoth Jiath plus seven, Sicily plus six and Mabior Chol plus six.
2. WHY DOES THE KICKING MATTER?
Because Sam Mitchell is playing a forward line no one else in footy would dare attempt right now.
It is a Richmond 2017 style forward line except the Tigers had multiple Coleman Medallist Jack Riewoldt and the Hawks have Mabior Chol.
The ‘Chols Royce’ has got better by the week – one, two and three goals.
But take a look at the inside 50 marks week by week in this forward line with five smalls and Chol.
12 inside 50 marks to five against Sydney, 16 inside 50 marks to six against Essendon, then 13 inside 50 marks to five against Carlton.
They are phenomenal numbers for a forward line full of little tackers.
3. BUT WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE HAWKS GET SMACKED IN CLEARANCES?
Against Sydney the Hawks won clearances by 14 and stoppage clearances by 10 which helped with a 58-40 inside 50 imbalance.
But in round 1 they lost clearances by 19, stoppage clearances by 39 to 16 and contested possessions by 24 and still beat the Dons with a leg in the air.
Against Carlton they lost clearance by 12 and stoppage clearances by 11 but it still didn’t matter.
Their ball movement is so slick and their defence so sound that they are finding ways to win when the midfield is getting trounced.
4. THE 3-0 START ALLOWS THE HAWKS SOME BREATHING SPACE
Calsher Dear is making encouraging progress from a back stress reaction while Mitch Lewis won’t be rushed after a round 18, 2024 ACL tear.
Neither has to be rushed in. Both can play multiple VFL games to build form.
5. DEPTH.
When the Hawks did call upon Jack Gunston last week as the sub he kicked two exceptional goals.
Luke Breust kicked three goals in the VFL, while Breust or Henry Hustwaite could be next man up after Connor Macdonald’s syndesmosis injury.
By the time Dear and Lewis are back the Hawks could have 28-30 players who expect to play every week.
6. DEPTH 2.0.
What other side boasts the depth in multiple positions.
Lloyd Meek is the star but Ned Reeves and Max Ramsden are playing solid VFL football.
The small forward brigade is the envy of the competition.
Against Carlton they had the best three smalls on the ground in Moore, Watson and Macdonald with Ginnivan and Breust adding depth and Finn Maginness holding his spot in the side.
The Sicily-Barrass-Battle talent is clear to see alongside fellow defender Josh Weddle and when Jack Scrimshaw goes down Jiath slots in with Sam Frost not even needed.
7. IS CJ BACK?
We had started to lose faith in the capacity of Changkuoth Jiath’s body to withstand the rigours of AFL football.
Last year he played 11 fairly mediocre games in defence.
Finally he got his chance against Carlton and responded with 20 possessions (eight contested), two intercept marks, eight intercept possessions and he kicked at 91 per cent efficiency. If he can get a run at it – and it's a big IF – what could he be by September?
8. YOU HAVE TO LOVE THE FIGHT AND GRIT OF SAM FROST …
But Josh Battle has come into this team at 26 as a player only peaking and fits hand in glove into this backline. Tom Barrass can take the deepest forward, Battle takes the second best tall, Sicily floats.
Battle absolutely annihilated Charlie, at one stage beating him hands down three times in the space of 10 minutes.
Curnow was underdone but Battle won’t get opponents of that quality every week because Barrass will often take the stars.
He kept Tom Papley to a goal in opening round, conceded only a single goal to Kyle Langford and Nate Caddy in round one and kept Curnow goalless.
He has had to defend five one-on-one contests and has won three of them and hasn’t lost a single one.
9. TOM BARRASS
Not only did the Hawks secure the Eagles defender after trading for the Blues future first-round pick, the Eagles had a choice of taking the Hawthorn or Carlton 2025 first-round pick and took the Blues selection.
So Barrass is holding up – he has lost only one of four one-on-one contests – and the Hawks have a Blues first-round pick which right now looks excellent on paper.
10. SAM MITCHELL HAS FOOTY’S BIGGEST ACE UP HIS SLEEVE.
He throws Josh Weddle forward when he needs a goal and if that doesn’t work he goes for his chief weapon in James Sicily.
It bears remembering that Sicily (who took five contested marks against Sydney and has two goals pinch-hitting forward) played a lot of the 2024 season with a dislocated shoulder.
He’s averaging 16 kicks, 2.7 intercept marks, 6.7 marks.
He looks like he’s having a ball.
11. WHO ELSE HAS THE VERSATILITY IN THEIR SIDE LIKE HAWTHORN?
Blake Hardwick is at home forward or back.
Josh Weddle starts back but can play second ruck, wing or forward.
Sicily goes forward and back.
Dylan Moore plays centre square mid and small forward with ease.
Will Day has added mid-forward to his repertoire, even if he’s found the added attention of the past two weeks a challenge.
Changkuoth Jiath can play half back or wing, as can Jarman Impey and Karl Amon.
12. CAM MACKENZIE – A NEW SAM MITCHELL?
He went into the midfield with Worpel down against Sydney and had a huge second half.
He had 20 contested possessions in his first two weeks of the year as a No. 7 pick and now looks a regular.
He only had 19 possessions against Carlton and he won’t slice and dice you with eye-catching feats but he is just a highly effective contested ball mid getting better.
13. THE WIZ HAS LEARNT THE LESSONS OF 2024. WELL, SOME OF THEM
He already has five goals and his set shot routine looks much more assured.
With 5.2 and only one total miss his 63 per cent strike rate at goal will make him much more damaging.
He has won four free kicks for the year and while only one of them is for a head high tackle it’s not for want of trying.
Here is the lesson – don’t become a shooting star meme.
Not long after he threw his arms up last week in the goalsquare and somehow missed out on a legitimate free kick, he showed what the future should be.
Hemmed in on the boundary line he used his brute force to effortlessly break through an Essendon tackle.
He has such a low centre of gravity and so much power that he should break tackles, not milk them. The free kick stuff just isn’t sustainable.
14. EVERY THING DYLAN MOORE IS ON A HIGHER PLANE
After six goals in three games consider his Champion Data stat line.
He is considered elite for disposals, kicking, forward 50 marks, forward 50 groundballs, forward 50 pressure, goals, accuracy.
He doesn’t have a weakness.
WEEKEND OBSERVATIONS
1. MASON COX IS A DIFFERENT CAT
Or as he would put it, a weird dude.
But potting him for being accidentally punched in the head by Rory Lobb is a new low.
Go to the footy, scream your heart out, rail against the umpires, carry on like a porch chop.
Heaven forbid that those of us who saunter in with media accreditation should tell people what to feel when they are at an AFL game.
But getting on social media afterwards and making clear how much you enjoyed him literally bleeding can’t make you feel much better about your tough week at work or cost-of-living pressures.
Cox has played through torn spleens and fractures cheekbones and damaged retinas and been involved in one of footy’s great upsets.
He is a genuinely nice guy who never shirks the limelight – good or bad – despite a career with plenty of lows as well as those 2018 preliminary final highs.
He might rub some people up the wrong way but basking in an injury isn’t the answer.
2. TRADING HOUSTON MIGHT HAVE COST KEN ONE LAST FLAG SHOT
But it should also be the No. 1 item on his resume if he does want to be the new Tasmanian coach.
Think about it for a moment – he would have known that he was going to hand over the baton to Josh Carr when he allowed the contracted Houston to go home in the trade period.
But he still did it, in part because Houston was homesick but also because it was the right thing for the Port Adelaide list in the long term.
The Power drafted Joe Berry, Christian Moraes and Jack Whitlock with those picks.
Berry and Moraes have already debuted and both look the part.
It is the second time he has moved on elite players to help a mini rebuild at a club that has found it challenging to lure elite experienced players.
The Power wanted Harry Perryman but he chose the big ticket club in Collingwood.
So just like when they moved on Chad Wingard the Power had taken short-term pain for long-term gain.
Surely Tasmanian CEO Brendon Gale would look at the selfless nature of that decision, already aware of how much Hinkley’s players love him.
3. THE AFL HAS TO MAKE IT EASIER FOR UMPIRES TO GET IT RIGHT
So make the boundary line like an electric fence.
Make the rushed behind a thing of the past except for players spoiling the ball over the line in contests.
Players get dropped for fumbling, except in the case of world champion fumblers Ben McKay and Dylan Shiel.
But when a sure-handed player like Nick Daicos takes the ball across the line or deliberately fumbles it the AFL allows an umpire to call throw in.
Umpires can make mistakes – and the league will review its Friday night officiating – but way too often a player is allowed to walk the ball over the boundary line.
We make it too hard for the umpires but a hard-line stance on the boundary line and rushed behinds would make play more exciting _ the ball would stay in the field of play more _ and ensure umpires had an easier day.
While we are on it, what must the umpires think of now having to allow players to push each other in marking contests.
We once had an easy-to-officiate rule which ruled out hands in the marking contests and now we have all kinds of confusing shades of gray.
4. WHY DOES THE AFL ALLOW GEELONG TO TAKE THE MICKEY OUT OF THEM?
The league tightened up rules around vague midweek injury reports and clubs are responding.
Geelong’s reporting this week was much more prescriptive this week even if Toby Conway, Mitch Edwards and Cam Guthrie are listed as TBC given their uncertain returns.
Clubs including the Dogs, Hawthorn and Collingwood have been absolutely outstanding with their injury updates to the media midgame during broadcasts.
But Geelong and others are free to thumb their nose at all the fantasy players, punters and footy tipsters because there is absolutely no AFL directive to actually list player injuries.
The NFL example is used often and rightly so.
One of the most recent fines for clubs flouting extremely tight rules saw Atalanta fined $100,000 in 2023 when running back Bijan Robinson played a limited role in a week seven game.
He hadn’t been listed with an injury designation and later admitted he hadn’t felt well.
He still played and wasn’t even officially injured – just feeling unwell – but because Atlanta hadn’t added him to their injury designation coach Arthur Smith copped a $25,000 fine and the Falcons had to pay $75,000.
If Chris Scott had to hand over thousands of dollars for failing to list Bailey Smith as doubtful, how quickly do you think AFL clubs would change their tune?
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