The six AFL teams ‘already a lock to play finals’

There’s only two finals spots left up for grabs for the likes of Geelong, Brisbane, Carlton and Collingwood according to Leigh Montagna.

Are Tom Papley’s Sydney Swans bound for the AFL finals? Picture: Jono Searle

It’s only Round 4, but St Kilda champion Leigh Montagna believes six teams that occupy top-eight spots after four weeks “are a lock” to play finals in 2021.

The undefeated and in-form Western Bulldogs sit on top of the ladder with a healthy percentage of 171.1 per cent, followed by fellow 4-0 teams Melbourne and Sydney.

Port Adelaide and Adelaide sit fourth and fifth respectively having had just one loss so far this season, while West Coast, Carlton and Richmond round out the top eight on percentage as three of six teams with a 2-2 record.

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Only one 4-0 team has missed the finals in the past decade: Essendon in 2012 (and technically in 2013, when the Bombers were excluded due to the supplements saga). On average over the past five years, 5.8 teams that were in the top eight after four rounds ended up playing finals.

Speaking on Fox Footy’s First Crack on Sunday night, Montagna believes from what he’s seen so far this season, 75 per cent of the current top eight teams will still be there by premiership season’s end.

“I think we can only go by what we’re seeing with our eyes, not our perceptions,” Montagna told First Crack.

“I believe in most of them. I think the top eight is starting to take shape and six of those eight teams will play finals.”

Montagna declared the Bulldogs, Demons, Swans and Power would hold onto top-eight spots, while West Coast and Richmond would also make finals.

The dual All-Australian said the Blues and Crows “aren’t locked” for finals yet before adding: “I think those other six teams are already a lock to play finals.”

But dual premiership Kangaroo David King believes the top eight is far from secured.

“We keep saying that after six to eight weeks, it’s pretty much locked in for the end of season. Maybe one change, maybe not, but that’s what history tells us,” King told Fox Footy’s First Crack. “Right now I think the ladder lies.”

Max Gawn, Lance Franklin and Dustin Martin are on track for September.

King’s biggest query was Sydney, which has been the darlings of the competition to date with four straight wins over Brisbane, Adelaide, Richmond and Essendon.

With one of the youngest lists in the competition, King questioned whether the Swans had the stamina to play at such a high standard for a whole season.

“There are a lot of kids in that team that are going to get to a point at the end of the year when they’re going to fatigue,” King told Fox Footy.

But both Montagna and former Hawthorn sharpshooter Ben Dixon said they’d seen enough to suggest the Swans had the personnel and game plan to reach finals in 2021.

“They reset with the kids that have come through and you’ve got to remember they finished 15th on the ladder (in 2020) and had a percentage of 95 – no team’s done that,” Dixon said.

“The key indicator for me is their turnover game. They’re the best in the comp.”

Montagna added: “We talk a lot about their kids, but they’ve got a lot of players in their sweet spot – (Callum) Mills, (Tom) Papley, (Dane) Rampe, George Hewett – as well as the veterans who are still playing really good footy. I think the combination of all three sets them up to play finals.”

Of the teams outside the top eight, Montagna said he still had faith in Geelong, despite its early 2-2 record.

“I think Geelong are playing for a marathon not a sprint,” he said.

“I know they’ve started wobbly and a bit slow to get out of the blocks, but for them it was a slow start to the pre-season because of the year they had last year, an ageing group – I think they’ll be peaking at the back-end of the year.

“I’m still pretty confident Geelong play finals.”

Originally published as The six AFL teams ‘already a lock to play finals’