The List Manager: Jon Ralph runs the rule over the Bulldogs’ current group, its future and everything in between
2023 was not the season the Dogs or Bailey Smith expected to have, then the trade rumours began to circle. Jon Ralph assesses the landscape at the Bulldogs heading into 2024.
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Any way you cut it the Dogs vastly underperformed in 2023.
They had footy’s best ruckman (Tim English), the top two players on official player ratings (Marcus Bontempelli, Tom Liberatore) and a star-studded and versatile forward line.
No wonder CEO Ameet Baines quite rightly called the list top-four calibre.
And yet from an 8-3 perch a strangely inconsistent Bulldogs side won only four more games amid off-field rumblings as fans wondered about the tactics and selections of coach Luke Beveridge.
Whitten Oval didn’t seem a happy and contented place as one of footy’s most consistent stars in Jackson Macrae was under-utilised and Bailey Smith barely tried to hide his dissatisfaction about playing high half forward.
A round 23 loss to West Coast summed up a wasted season as the Dogs eventually found a way to 12 victories in a home-and-away season with an extra match but still came up short of September participation.
As the Dogs tipped their assistant coaching ranks upside down post-season they would point Beveridge’s critics to his record of six finals campaigns and two grand finals in nine completed seasons with only one losing season (8-14 in 2018).
And yet in those nine years the Dogs have never finished top four (they reached grand finals from seventh and fifth) so that must be their stated aim in 2024.
TRADE PERIOD
Rating: 7/10
The Dogs used the draft capital of a mid-table finish and their 2024 first-rounder to jump all the way up to pick 5 and enough points to secure Matthew Croft’s son Jordan in next week’s national draft.
Then they increased their midfield depth by securing Melbourne’s James Harmes while also bolstering the defence with St Kilda’s Nick Coffield.
Their draft hand next year in a bumper draft is weak - no first-rounder or fourth-rounder - but plenty can change before the 2024 national draft.
The Dogs believe Coffield is potentially an upgrade on the delisted Taylor Duryea and Hayden Crozier, but he hasn’t played an AFL game in two years.
As recently as last year Harmes played 22 AFL games averaging 17 possessions, 1.7 clearances, 0.6 goals and 3.6 tackles so for a future third-rounder he’s a smart addition.
LIST HOLES
Dogs fans know the score.
Last year the midfield was talent-laden but never quite clicked, Lobb underperformed, Liam Jones and Ed Richards both missed a month of footy at inopportune times, Naughton was good but not great and Ugle-Hagan’s super breakout season was marred by inaccuracy.
Of seven games decided by under 12 points they won a single contest (five points against Richmond), with two, three, five, seven and seven-point losses.
In a year where Sam Darcy was often injured none of Josh Bruce, Alex Keath or Ryan Gardner could lock down the second defensive role.
It meant James O’Donnell was given a dozen games, showing an extraordinary rate of improvement including three late breakout games but given jobs way above his pay grade and experience.
So the Dogs will hope natural improvement and better form from key players will shoot them up the ladder after 11 players moved on including some Bevo favourites - Robbie McComb, Lachie McNeil, Roarke Smith and Mitch Hannan.
Jones, O’Donnell, third-year tall Darcy, Gardner and Keath are the key defenders with Coffield, Richards, Dale, Caleb Daniel and wingman-defender Bailey Williams providing the run.
O’Donnell’s level of improvement off so little recent football was phenomenal at a club that also took key back Jedd Busslinger with pick 12 last year.
By 2026 all of Darcy, O’Donnell and Busslinger should be defensively mainstays alongside the brilliant half back Richards, still only 24.
Naughton, Ugle-Hagan, Lobb, Cody Weightman (34 goals despite an elbow injury), Arty Jones and Rhylee West make up the talent-laden forward line.
It is Beveridge’s job to make the most of a midfield the envy of the comp, on paper at least - Bontempelli, Liberatore, Smith, Macrae, Treloar and the All Australian ruckman English.
This list wants for nothing.
Time to get cracking on maximising its potential.
DRAFT STRATEGY
The Dogs have pick 5 and expect to match a bid for 201cm father-son forward Croft at around the 12-14 mark.
They have picks 5, 48, 50, 52, 53, 56, 69, 72 and 75 - so will take as many as four picks unless a Croft bid comes early enough to swallow up all those back-end selections.
Expect the Eagles to pick Harley Reid, Gold Coast to match a bid for Jed Walter, then the Roos to pick Colby McKercher and Zane Duursma.
So the Hawks will take the fifth live pick and select one of small forward Nick Watson or key back Daniel Curtin given their midfield is so stocked with young talent.
Does the Jack Ginnivan acquisition tip their hand to key back Curtin?
It means the Dogs will take the sixth live pick and can take Larke Medallist Ryley Sanders, a relentless and consistent midfielder, or livewire forward Watson.
They have been linked to both and are keen on midfield succession with Tom Liberatore 32, Treloar 30 and Smith’s future up for grabs.
Fair enough, but injecting Watson into the forward line from round 1 next year alongside Weightman would be a sight to behold.
As one rival said this week, everyone can find midfielders but Watson is a genuine point of difference hard to find in the draft.
WHO’S UNDER THE PUMP
Rory Lobb only needs to be one of Bevo’s Disciples, a valuable role player who crashes packs and plays five minutes in the ruck, to justify his spot in the team.
Unfortunately for Lobb in his debut season there were too many times he was MIA.
He played some wing, some forward, some ruck and it was only in the final game of the year against Geelong when he changed the game in the centre square.
It will be food for thought for Beveridge given English remains a F50 weapon when deployed there in attacking cameos.
CAP SPACE
List boss Sam Power has expertly navigated the club’s retention challenges, last year signing up free agents Bailey Dale, Jackson Macrae, Caleb Daniel plus a long list of out-of-contract players.
The great news for the Dogs is the cap is in fantastic shape, good enough for a crack at elite rival players even after the retention challenges.
Power will hope the eight-year extension for Aaron Naughton to 2032 has a snowball effect as his great mate Tim English eventually agrees to his own long-term deal.
It won’t come cheap - call it $1.2 million a year - even as the club will hope players follow Marcus Bontempelli’s lead in taking a little less to build a premiership team.
And Jamarra Ugle-Hagan WILL re-sign but his management would be negligent to sign up now when he could have a 60-goal breakout season.
So expect English and Ugle-Hagan to stay and the Dogs to still get aggressive this time next year.
TRADE TARGETS FOR 2024
Not only do the Dogs have cap space, they could secure another first-rounder if Bailey Smith does eventually jump ship.
The future is Darcy, Busslinger and O’Donnell but with Liam Jones turning 33 in February do the Dogs need to find anther mature-ager to bridge the gap?
Key backs are so hard to find but the available free agents for 2024 are Josh Battle, Jack Henry and Jake Kolodjashnij, with Dougal Howard and Adam Tomlinson out of contract.
PREMIERSHIP WINDOW
When you can win a flag from seventh and qualify for another Grand Final from fifth, no one will write you off in any given season.
The Dogs are stacked with talent and English is only 26, Naughton 23 and Bontempelli 27.
Say no more.
TOP PLAYER RATINGS FOR 2023 AND A 2024 BOLTER
Bontempelli (1st), Tom Liberatore (2nd), English (5th), Treloar (30th), Macrae (58th), Dale (86th), Richards (91st), Daniel (105th), Naughton (112th).
Bolter: Ugle-Hagan can climb into the top 50 next year.
TRADE BAIT
Bailey Smith has genuinely committed to spending the off-season doing everything possible to getting fit enough to break into the centre square next year.
For all the ballyhoo over his lack of impact - and he missed the top 10 in the best-and-fairest - he did average 23.5 possessions, 3.6 clearances and 3.5 tackles.
But he was inconsistent, his kicking was officially below average and inside-50 kicking was only average and as a high half forward he kicked only four goals with 11 direct score assists.
They are ordinary stats for a player who kicked 17 goals in 2021, including three and four in that year’s semi and preliminary final.
Expect a bounce-back year which only sparks more interest in his future home.
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