The List Manager: Jon Ralph runs the rule over Richmond’s current group, its future and everything in between
The Tigers’ dominant era is over but how long will it take for its’ premiership window to open again? Jon Ralph looks into his crystal ball to assess Richmond’s future prospects.
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If you consider the evidence of the past three seasons, you could make the case Richmond is a mediocre football team.
The Tigers finished 12th with nine wins in 2021, scraped into finals in 2022 before a last-gasp elimination finals loss to Brisbane then finished 13th with only 10 losses in 2023.
And, yet, for Richmond, attempting to buck footy’s equalisation measures was vastly preferable to a 4-6 year total rebuild that would not guarantee a bounce back up the ladder.
Now a new coach (Adem Yze) enters Punt Road with a new aggressive corridor-based game plan he hopes will reinvigorate this group in the manner of Adam Kingsley at GWS.
The path could be rocky, and yet Richmond’s premiership dynasty has brought Yze and the club’s hierarchy patience from its fans ahead of the new coach’s own season of discovery.
TRADE PERIOD
Rating: 6/10
Every move Richmond made in this trade period is conditional on the 2024 fortunes of a trio of experienced players.
If Toby Nankervis plays 23 games next year, getting 41 and a future second for 2024 free agent Ivan Soldo is a stroke of genius.
If Tom Lynch stays fit and Jacob Koschitzke becomes his trusty foil, it's the perfect trade given the loss of only pick 49.
It means Richmond effectively brings in a pack-crashing 23-year-old who could play 150 games at Punt Road for a 2024 free agent in Soldo AND gets Fremantle’s 2024 second-rounder.
And if Jacob Hopper bounces back with 20-plus games of real consequence, the lack of early picks in November 2023’s national draft is justified.
A year on there is more of a sample size to assess the Hopper and Taranto trades.
Richmond’s 2023 best-and-fairest winner Tim Taranto was secured for picks 12 (West Coast’s Elijah Hewett, some excellent first-year cameos) and 19 (GWS forward Max Gruzewski, 29 VFL goals) but critics are deluded if they believe that deal doesn’t favour the Tigers.
Hopper was secured for pick 31 (GWS mid-forward Toby McMullin) and a 2024 first-rounder (pick 7) but that selection will likely drift to pick 9 which is outside the top tier of players in this draft.
So for skills acquisition specialist Yze, tidying up Taranto’s disposal could turn his deal into a huge winner.
But Hopper finished only equal 14th from 16 games so needs to add durability, matchwinning impact, goal power (just seven goals) and tidy his kicking (54 per cent efficiency).
LIST HOLES
There are 14 of Richmond’s 2020 premiership side still on the Tigers list, but it’s possible to make a case none of them will be in this club’s next premiership side.
Dustin Martin is 32 but will hope to defy Father Time, Dylan Grimes is 32 and maybe in his final year in 2024, Marlion Pickett is 31 and with a serious court case approaching.
Dion Prestia is 31 and uncontracted at the end of 2024.
Will Lynch (31 on October 31), Nathan Broad (31 in April), Kamdyn McIntosh (30 in April) and Nankervis (29) get another crack at it?
The list is reasonably well-balanced positionally but lacks pure A-grade talent, which Richmond is confident it will unearth in coming years given so many youngsters who could blossom.
If Lynch stands up, Richmond can position an array of small and mid-sized stars around him and at his feet.
On paper, the Richmond defence is potentially elite – Noah Balta, Josh Gibcus, Tylar Young, Nick Vlastuin, Nathan Broad, Grimes, Daniel Rioli, Jayden Short.
And the midfield can break open games if Shai Bolton and Martin get to work at their explosive best.
So Yze has twin missions in his debut year – play a game style that brings back the kinetic energy and pressure so badly missing last year, while trying to find 3-5 potential A-graders.
Can he do that in quick time to blend those kids in with Rioli (all Australian upside), 25-year-old Taranto, 27-year-old Jayden Short, 26-year-old Hopper, who all have five or more years at their absolute peak?
Bolton is 25 in December and Balta (88 intercept marks, some brain fades) just turned 24 last week.
Of the 17 listed players younger than Balta, Gibcus is the pick of them as a potential 200-game intercept defender, but Richmond has high hopes it can develop some of the others into A-graders.
Mid-forward Noah Cumberland has huge talent but has been given tough love, inside mid Thompson Dow has played 17 games in four years, Maurice Rioli has 18 goals in 27 games after three seasons and isn’t fit enough.
Midfielder Tyler Sonsie has 10 games in two years, wing-halfback Sam Banks is much-hyped but has six games in two years and half-back Tom Brown one game in two years.
Half-forward Judson Clarke kicked 11 goals in 13 games this year and has a touch of class and poise, while Samson Ryan is a gangly ruck-forward with real potential.
All have shown glimpses, none have put together a run of 6-8 weeks of consistent form yet apart from Cumberland’s 19 goals in eight weeks in the back-end of 2022.
So the challenge is to develop what on paper is an excellent midfield into an on-field weapon, while also unearthing Richmond’s next batch of champions.
DRAFT STRATEGY
Richmond has picks 29, 41, 65, 68 and 86, and has had success taking picks in that range before (Bolton, pick 29 in 2016).
Recruiter Matt Clarke will take a maximum of three selections in the national draft.
Don’t be surprised if the Tigers take a young key tall as a Lynch successor, with no father-sons, but Duncan Kellaway’s son Louis eligible next year.
The Tigers’ picks are modest but last year they got the hugely impressive Tylar Young as pick 26 in the rookie draft and are excited by mid-season rookies Matthew Coulthart and James Trezise.
WHO’S UNDER THE PUMP
Maurice Rioli. Own your career. Get into the best fitness of your life. Hire a trainer.
Revamp your lifestyle. Do whatever it takes. Your AFL career can pass you by in a flash.
Rioli told the club in his exit meeting he would come back in elite shape given his fitness battle so far so must back up words with action as he enters a contract year.
PREMIERSHIP WINDOW
3-5 years away. It would take something herculean to fast-track the kids quickly enough to allow Dustin Martin to get another crack at the title.
THE TOP 100
PLAYERS WHO MADE THE TOP 100 IN THE AFL PLAYER RANKINGS IN 2023 AND A 2024 BOLTER
Shai Bolton (20th), Dustin Martin (33rd), Toby Nankervis (52nd), Jayden Short (68th), Nick Vlastuin (74th), Tim Taranto (90th), Dion Prestia (96th).
Daniel Rioli (145th) can jump into the top 50 with an injury-free run under Yze’s promised attacking game.
TRADE TARGETS FOR 2024
Could the Tigers target a Sam Durham type as an aggressive half-forward and wingman as Kamdyn McIntosh’s successor or can Banks organically develop into that player?
Lynch will enter 2025 as a 32-year-old so Richmond will need to consider how to acquire its next star forward.
Clubs will keep an eye on two 2024 free agents – Geelong’s unrestricted free agent Tyson Stengle and Gold Coast’s goal-a-game half forward Ben Ainsworth.
CAP SPACE FOR 2025
WAR CHEST, RETENTION, CLEVER ACQUISITIONS
Bolton, Martin and Lynch represent at least $3.6 million of the club’s wage bill in 2024 and Taranto and Hopper both arrived on deals north of $700,000.
But with the champions retiring (Jack Riewoldt, Trent Cotchin), Soldo departing and the CBA uptick, Richmond will again have cap space to get aggressive leading into 2025 if the right opportunity presents.
TRADE BAIT
Richmond was assured by Dion Prestia’s management that speculation about him wanting out in the trade period was incorrect, but will wait until after the pre-season to consider deals for five free agents – Nankervis, Martin, Cumberland, Jack Graham and Prestia.
The club’s belief is that Martin plays better with certainty over his career so is keen to re-extend him past 2025 but he is in no hurry.
Rivals will scrutinise Graham given he is a free agent at the end of 2024 and his elite two-way running would be a virtue in 17 rival sides.
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