The List Manager: Jon Ralph runs the rule over Gold Coast’s current group, its future and everything in between
It is going to be a wild draft night, with a number of clubs needing to wheel and deal their way into more points. Which rivals are circling and ready to jump up the order?
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Gold Coast is footy’s greatest tease.
Remember that season when Gary Ablett’s shoulder cost them finals.
It was 2014 — nine seasons ago — and while the Suns won 10 games that year, they have never bettered that total or finished higher than 12th in their 13 seasons.
So, to be honest, it is put up or shut up time.
And yet …
It is possible to make the case they have never been better placed after 19 collective wins in the past two years.
They have a new coach (Damien Hardwick), a star forward (Ben King) 12 months on from his ACL tear, and a quartet of academy picks ready to make an immediate impact.
They have a rock solid defensive trio (Charlie Ballard, Sam Collins, Mac Andrew), and a midfield that could one day challenge as footy’s best if it can build out its depth.
So yes, we will tip in again and say 2024 is Gold Coast’s season to shine.
TRADE PERIOD
Rating: 8/10
The caveat in the trade period is that the Suns effectively gave away pick 7 from the 2022 draft Elijah Hollands for free, a year after they gave away the 2022 pick 7 to the Cats as part of a cap dump featuring unwanted flanker Jack Bowes.
But if trade periods are all about net gain or loss, they knocked the trade for pick 4 out of the park, turning it into 4131 points to help secure Academy guns Jed Walter, Ethan Read, Jake Rogers and Will Graham AND a pair of 2024 first-rounders.
One is the Roos end-of-first-round pick and the other is linked to the Western Bulldogs.
The Suns also got the Lions’ future second-round pick in the Mabior Chol deal.
And, while giving away Chol (44 goals in 2022) and VFL stars Chris Burgess and Brodie McLaughlin (116 goals between them this year) is a risk, Damien Hardwick was happy to back in a forward line with talls King, first-year colt Walter, Levi Casboult and Jack Lukosius with Sam Day as cover after he is delisted and relisted.
LIST HOLES
The Suns ooze talent.
They have 14 players drafted in the top 20 of a national draft — with as many as four about to land on November 20.
They have nine players drafted in the top seven of the draft.
So, for the Suns, the issue is depth.
Depth in a midfield that was puddle-deep at times as Stuart Dew played Matt Rowell, Noah Anderson and Touk Miller (when available this year) on high game time while others spun the magnets.
And depth to build out the bottom six so ultimately the likes of Rory Atkins, Brandon Ellis, and Levi Casboult feel extreme pressure to keep their spots in any given week.
The talent is obvious.
Mac Andrew rounds out the key defenders with Charlie Ballard and Sam Collins alongside mid-sizers Wil Powell and Jy Farrar, with Joel Jeffrey the exciting wildcard as a swingman.
The clear issues of concern are running defenders and wingmen with a club, already lacking some class on the outside, consigned to a mid-year 2024 return for Lachie Weller after a second ACL tear in July.
On paper, the midfield is spectacular – Miller, Anderson, Rowell, Bailey Humphrey, Sam Flanders, Braydon Fiorini — with Alex Davies a player of the future.
How quickly can potential No. 2 overall pick Walter make an impact alongside King, Lukosius and Casboult?
The Suns would love to have kept Izak Rankine, with only four players kicking 20 or more goals last year — King, Lukosius, Casboult and Ben Ainsworth.
Can Mal Rosas become a 30-goal forward to help ease the slack alongside lionheart Nick Holman and free agent Ainsworth?
DRAFT STRATEGY
Incredibly, a club that turned their much-desired pick 4 into four first-round picks (and 4100 draft points this year) will be out to improve its hand again on draft night.
If clubs bid on their four academy players at 2, 8, 12 and 20, they would need 4996 points.
The Suns, already holding 24, 26, 27, 32, 38, 66, 71 and 84, will be out to make a further three draft-night trades to get more points for picks 24 and 26.
West Coast (picks 1, 23) is interested in securing a third pick within 25, while Fremantle is also keen to get up from its initial pick (34).
Brisbane (with 30 as its first pick) and Richmond (which has picks 29 and 41) could also be contenders for 24 or 26.
The Roos are making noises they will bid on physical beast Walter at pick 2, with the 194cm marking tall unique, given his desperation to chase and tackle as well as control the skies.
Read, who ran a sub six minute 2km time trial and is being referred to as footy’s next unicorn, could play as a key back despite his reputation as a hard-running ruckman.
The 202cm tall will attract a bid around 7-10.
Rogers, all 172cm of him, is a Miller clone, while tall mid Will Graham was so impressive at the draft combine with top-three results in the 20m sprint, standing vertical jump and running vertical jump, the Suns are bracing to match a bid in the top 20.
The Suns will still have list spots to pick up delisted free agents after the draft, with St Kilda’s Dan McKenzie one prospect given his running power on the wing.
UNDER THE PUMP
King had three tackles against Adelaide and two against Geelong.
In his 18 other games, he recorded four tackles total.
He is harshly judged because of his pay packet and he battled some knee soreness coming off an ACL tear.
But, for comparison, of all key forwards Mitch Owens had 87 tackles, Aaron Naughton 59, Jack Darling 51 and Anthony Caminiti 50, while brother Max and Hawthorn’s Fergus Greene were the next worst, both with 10 tackles from 11 games.
So when King isn’t clunking marks — and he can have rare days where he drops everything in sight — can he be a more physical, involved player who is a leader of the Suns forward line?
PREMIERSHIP WINDOW
Gold Coast and premiership? Say that again?
But for the first time, the Suns’ window is opening.
They have only five players 30 or older and all have successors.
Ned Moyle and Read will replace underrated 31-year-old Jarrod Witts at some stage, with Casboult, Day, Ellis and Swallow also in the plus-30 group.
Hardwick arrived to win a premiership at a fourth club and it is possible from 2025 onwards with this list, and a potential premiership window open for as long as six years.
TOP 100 PLAYER RATINGS AND A 2024 BOLTER
Noah Anderson (6th), Matt Rowell (21st), Jarrod Witts (44th) Touk Miller (55th). Jack Lukosius (124th), Wil Powell (125th). Bailey Humphrey was ranked 269th-ranked player. His best was awesome but he got tired, with only two goals after round 14. He can be top-50 with a full pre-season.
CAP SPACE FOR 2025
The Suns are finally out of the woods, having smoothed out back-ended contracts and moved on deals for Chol, Chris Burgess, Bowes and Hollands. It gives them $1 million of extra cap space for 2024 they didn’t have a month back.
They have cap space and a trio of first-rounders to launch at any player in the competition, able to afford free agent Dustin Martin if he chooses, and a targeted acquisition if Hardwick sees fit.
2024 TRADE TARGETS
The first order of business is sitting down with King when he returns to training to lock down a two-year deal for 2025-26 that could be $1.1 million a year or more.
The Suns have always had eyes on elite running half backs and would pay the world for a 22-year-old version of Lachie Whitfield or Jack Sinclair, but they are hard to find.
They will hope stopper Connor Budarick’s late-season return off multiple ACL tears can help fill a positional hole but imagine what a Nick Blakey or Isaac Quaynor type would do to transform their ball movement.
TRADE BAIT
Every public statement King has made is that he will re-sign over summer.
Ainsworth is a 2024 free agent and has never averaged more than 1.1 goals a game in any given year, but has found consistency in his past four seasons so he will have suitors.
He is likely to want to assess his worth as the 2024 season unfolds.
Rivals will assess whether ruckman Moyle gets games after averaging 116 ranking points, 39 hit-outs, 15 hit-outs and 9.9 contested possessions across 19 VFL games in 2023.
Originally published as The List Manager: Jon Ralph runs the rule over Gold Coast’s current group, its future and everything in between
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