The incredible gap between Gold Coast and Hawthorn’s top-20 AFL draft selections
They have been the dominant side of the past decade and as a result Alastair Clarkson’s Hawks are swimming in a kiddie pool of top 20 talents – while the Suns have an ocean of them. Could it mean a long road back to the top for Hawthorn?
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Alastair Clarkson will go to sleep on Sunday night holding either the No.3 or No.4 national draft pick, which will be Hawthorn’s first top-10 selection since it selected Mitchell Thorp in 2006.
The Hawks’ opponent, Gold Coast, has activated 18 top-10 selections in their 10 AFL drafts.
From 2010-2019 the Suns crowned 26 kids in the top 20.
Hawthorn has had three — Isaac Smith (No.19 in 2010), Ryan Burton (No.19 in 2015) and Will Day (No.13 in 2019).
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The Suns’ tally excludes mini-draft gems Jaeger O’Meara and Jack Martin as well as a dozen 17-year-olds, headlined by Charlie Dixon and Steven May.
Really, it is Gold Coast 22-0 for top-10 picks compared to the Hawks and 30-3 for top 20.
Hawthorn fans will argue that they’ve spent the past decade trading their first-round picks for players who were taken near the top of the draft.
That is correct.
Of the recent inclusions Chad Wingard went at No.6, Tom Mitchell was a father-son gun, Jack Scrimshaw went at No.7 and O’Meara was the beez neez of the mini-draft.
But when it comes to depth, Clarkson is swimming in the kids’ pool and Suns coach Stuart Dew in the ocean.
Gold Coast’s 2020 list boasts 11 players taken in the top 10 and another six inside 20.
Hawthorn has six and three, and that includes Ben McEvoy, 31, James Frawley, 31, Shaun Burgoyne, 37 and Tom Scully and Jon Patton, who are banged-up.
“They just haven’t got enough of them, have they?” respected recruiter Matthew Rendell said.
“You’ve got Mitchell, O’Meara and Wingard at the peak of their careers.
“But they just haven’t got enough to complement around them. Their kids aren’t top 15 picks anymore.
“Nothing against them, there’s some good players there — but they ain’t top-20 picks.
“And there’s a reason for that. They’re good players in your team from 12-22 — but you need those top-20 picks in your team.”
For the cake to rise Rendell said you needed an overflow of draft cream.
Look at Collingwood – Scott Pendlebury (pick No.5), Jordan De Goey (5), Darcy Moore (9), Steele Sidebottom (11) and Brodie Grundy (18).
Richmond has Dustin Martin (3), Trent Cotchin (2), Dion Prestia (9) and Tom Lynch (11).
Western Bulldogs can boast Marcus Bontempelli (4), Jack Macrae (6), Aaron Naughton (9) and Bailey Smith (7).
Geelong has long held the belief that players taken in the first round are usually worth a second chance because they are dripping with talent.
It’s why Fremantle — after taking Andrew Brayshaw (pick No.2) and Adam Cerra (5) in 2017, and Hayden Young and Liam Henry either side of Rising Star favourite Caleb Serong in last year’s top 10 — looks so ominous.
“They’ve traded out to get these senior players in because they think they’re still in the window.
“And almost this time last year they were still in the window – they beat West Coast over in Perth in the last game of the year.
“They thought, ‘We’re still a chance here’ but their older players have just fallen off a cliff and they’ve found out they were no chance.”
Still, Hawthorn fans shouldn’t despair.
Rendell pointed to Geelong’s super draft of 1999 and Hawthorn’s 2001 and 2004 draft as evidence the wheel can turn with a rush.
“I tell people all the time – you only have to get two good drafts right and you can revive your whole club, which is what Adelaide can do,” he said.
Gold Coast has already had two cracks at a build and crumbled both times, because the pillars of the club were made of dust.
“How many of the original high picks did they keep?” Rendell asked.
The answer was not many. David Swallow and Sam Day remain from 2011, and then there is a black hole the size of The Big Pineapple.
“That’s extraordinary, isn’t it? They just have to keep rebuilding, that’s the problem,” Rendell said.
This year the Suns can sign top-15 talent Alex Davies (Cairns) for nothing while it cashed in pick 11 in the upcoming draft for Jeremy Sharp last year.
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The talent keeps coming. But with the right pillars in place, the Suns believe they’ve already had their Hawthorn drafts.
Can Ben King be their Jarryd Roughead? Izak Rankine their Cyril Rioli? Matthew Rowell their Luke Hodge?
Noah Anderson their Sam Mitchell? Jack Lukosius their Jack Gunston?
The Suns are finally arriving and there’s no reason the Hawks can’t rise from the ashes of this year.
“They can fix it really quick,” Rendell said.
“If they could do a good draft or two they’re still young enough (with O’Meara, Mitchell and Wingard in their prime).
“Get two good drafts going and most clubs can.”
