The home and away season is over now the game changes and everything counts
THE home and away season is over and the game now changes into a brutal contest where everything counts, writes David King.
AFL
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THE home and away season is over and the game now changes into a contest where everything counts.
For the players, the most striking difference they will notice from the previous 23 rounds is that easy possession quickly becomes an endangered species. It’s nothing for nothing in finals.
The perception is that the game becomes more contested and those players that win their own ball come to the fore. The numbers show that contested ball has gone up in three of the last four finals series, while the amount of uncontested ball has shrunk in each of the past four seasons.
There is no doubt that contested football will be king this September.
Winning contested ball is critical to initiating an offensive possession chain or stifling the opposition’s opportunities, but it doesn’t wipe-out the importance of the outside game. Uncontested effective disposals, when allowed the luxury of time and space, generally become the damaging possessions that evolve into scores.
The competition’s elite players possess the ability to break tackles.
Through sheer aggression and composure, these “tackle busters” take the game from rolling congestion to open, uncontested space, where the damage is inflicted. The tackle busters separate big games and they don’t come any bigger than finals.
Are the tackle busters elite players because they break tackles or do they break tackles because they’re elite players and appear comfortable under physical confrontation? It’s the chicken or the egg discussion. Chris Judd, Gary Ablett, Dane Swan - the list goes on.
They all accept the tackle, but are still capable of handballing and catapulting teammates into space. Damaging space.
Who are those players left in the finals?
Sydney’s Daniel Hannebery is the competitions most effective player when under physical pressure, according to Champion Data’s pressure rankings. But it’s Hawthorn livewire Luke Breust who has broken the most tackles this season with 23.
Richmond wrecking ball Dustin Martin is ranked third in the competition with 18, while the Swans’ million-dollar recruit Lance Franklin is fifth having broken 13 tackles this season.
Sitting in the top 10 are Geelong’s Steven Motlop and Port Adelaide trio Jared Polec, Matthew White and Robbie Gray. Hawthorn’s gamebreaker Shaun Burgoyne is also there.
Despite the size of Fremantle’s midfielders, David Mundy and Nathan Fyfe have only broken four tackles each this season. This must change.
The Bombers are slow in the midfield and defender Michael Hibberd is their chief tackle buster and with Jobe Watson regaining match fitness, it’d be timely to see him run riot at his aggressive, fist-pumping best.
Ben Cunnington is build for finals football. Breaking tackles comes naturally for the North Melbourne onballer, but he has relatively low numbers in this area which has to change.
There will be moments throughout the finals where these guys will fend-off and burst through tackles and take the contested disposal to the outside, creating an uncontested game where maximum damage can be inflicted.
Uncontested possession numbers fall dramatically in finals and players with a poor uncontested versus contested balance in their game will be exposed. They will be challenged to become more damaging with less disposals or start winning more of their own ball to maintain their impact.
Considering the standard of the opposition and the cut-throat nature of finals, this is difficult to achieve.
The AFL average for player possession tallies this season is 60 per cent uncontested and contested. Consistent finals performers operate around the 40 per cent contested ball or higher.
There’s been 977 players who have played at least 10 home and away games and two finals in the same season. Of those 977, 596 saw their average possession number fall and 377 went to another level.
Swan Ryan O’Keefe spiked in 2012 from a 24 possession average to 33 across three finals. Finals are where reputations are made and papers are stamped.
Those that rely too heavily on uncontested ball run the risk of their numbers drying up. I’m concerned at those who exist in the 75 per cent-plus uncontested possession zone.
Steven Motlop’s 20 possessions are made up of 76 per cent uncontested ball, but as mentioned, he’s a tackle breaker. Motlop is a unique beast - he take’s uncontested possession back into clutches of the opposition before escaping to exert maximum damage.
Hawthorn’s Brad Hill and Grant Birchall operate at 76 per cent uncontested for their 20 and 22 disposal averages.
North Melbourne’s Sam Gibson comes in at almost 80 per cent, which rings alarm bells, and lurking at 82 per cent is his teammate Liam Anthony, which highlights why selection hasn’t gone his way.
Richmond rebounder Bachar Houli, at a tick over 75 per cent uncontested possession, commits his finals series to heavy scrutiny.
Sydney duo Nick Malceski and Lewis Jetta hover around 76 per cent so their challenge is to reach their season average of 23 and 18 disposals respectively.
The uncontested possession-heavy players have proven to be vulnerable to getting tagged out of games. They face different challenges to the un-taggable inside brutes.
The contested guns of the competition will do what they do, it’s in their DNA. But the question throughout the next month is whether they can turn the inside game into an outside one by tackle busting. Or can they link up with their uncontested outriders who will be craving possession, but must cause maximum damage when the opportunity arises?
Uncontested players can’t afford to have poor skill execution on these biggest of days.
AFL finals are a fumble-free zone, too. Those looking to make the transition from uncontested orientation to the inside game will need to be clean or they’ll be exposed under the rolling spotlight of finals footy.
These games will be separated by the tackle busters. It will be the fend-off of Franklin, the “don’t argue” of Martin, the brutality of Josh Kennedy or the sheer size of Nat Fyfe.
YOUR CLUB’S TACKLE BUSTER
Sydney - Lance Franklin
Hawthorn - Luke Breust
Geelong - Steven Motlop
Fremantle - Nick Suban
Port Adelaide - Jared Polec
North Melbourne - Ben Cunnington
Essendon - Michael Hibberd
Richmond - Dustin Martin
STAR SPIKING
Players who have lifted the most for finals
PLAYER - SEASON - AVE DISP - AVE FINALS DISP - DIFFERENCE
Ryan O’Keefe: 2012 - 23.9 - 33 - +9.1
Joe Misiti: 2000 - 24 - 32.7 - +8.7
Andrew Embley: 2006 - 18.2 - 26.3 - +8.1
Brad Sewell: 2007 - 20.8 - 27.5 - +6.7
Robert Harvey: 2005 - 20.8 - 27.5 - +6.7
Dan Hannebery: 2012 - 23 - 29.7 - +6.6
James Hird: 2004 - 20.4 - 27 - +6.6
Jimmy Bartel: 2010 - 25.4 - 32 - +6.6
Brad Sewell: 2012 - 24.5 - 31 - +6.5
Jason Akermanis: 1999 - 18.8 - 25.0 - +6.2
Chris Judd: 2005 - 21.6 - 27.7 - +6.1
Daniel Kerr: 2012 - 22.5 - 28.5 - +6.0
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