Brownlow Medal poised to go down to the wire

BOOKMAKERS expect a Brownlow Medal cliffhanger.

Scott Pendlebury

BOOKMAKERS expect a Brownlow Medal cliffhanger.

Despite an ongoing cash tsunami for Hawthorn’s Sam Mitchell, Gold Coast skipper Gary Ablett remains warm favourite for tonight’s count.

Ultimate Brownlow Medal guide

But TAB spokesman Adam Hamilton said the winner could come down to Ablett’s likely best-afield performance against Greater Western Sydney in Round 23.

Ablett, who had been as short as $1.40 with TAB after dazzling early and mid-season performances, drifted out as far as $2.40 before the final round, with Geelong captain Joel Selwood having closed to $2.60.

But Ablett’s 33 disposals and four goals against the Giants could prove decisive.

“Of all the main contenders, we had Ablett well in front by Round 13 or so,” Hamilton said.

Where to put your money

“But there’s a fair patch there where he probably won’t poll and the others will come at him, so that three he looks likely to get in that last match could be crucial.”

Among those chasing will be Mitchell, the twice Brownlow runner-up whose All-Australian selection and form in the finals has again sparked public interest well after the final votes were cast.

When the four-time Hawk best-and-fairest and 2002 Liston Trophy winner walked off the field after the Hawks beat Sydney in Round 23, the TAB offered $21, the longest odds he’d been all season.

But after being spruiked last week and with his finals form stellar, Mitchell’s odds have been slashed to as tight as $5, third favourite behind Ablett $1.65 and Selwood $4.50.

“It’s been an absolute avalanche of money,” Hamilton said.

“Not one or two big bets, but just everyone having something on him.

“He’d be, by miles and miles, our worst result.”

There has not been one bet in excess of $1000 with TAB on Mitchell all season.

Conversely, there have been two $10,000 bets on Ablett — one at $2 on July 5 and another as late as September 5 at $1.70.

Selwood, who added 28 home-and-away goals to his midfield mastery this season, has been solid throughout after opening the year at $26.

Most bookies have discounted Collingwood’s Brownlow chances with midfield mates Scott Pendlebury and Dane Swan spoiling each other’s chances.

But with few other Pies pinching votes, if umpires consistently plump for one over the other, there’s every chance at least one will be right in the finish.

Reigning medallist Jobe Watson will be among the early leaders again, but his chance broke with his collarbone in Round 15.