Ten reasons Collingwood can win the premiership in 2024
After going winless in their opening three games, many wrote off the Pies’ chances at going back-to-back. However, as we hit the midpoint of the season, MATTHEW FORREST unpacks the 10 reasons the Pies can win the flag.
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At 0-3, the Magpies were being written off.
There aren’t many premiers that go 0-3 to start the following season, with Geelong doing it the year before and missing the eight.
It has been almost 50 years since a team started 0-3 and won the premiership (North Melbourne in 1975), and the following year was the last time a team started 0-3 and made the grand final (also North Melbourne, in 1976).
But despite an improbable job at hand, Collingwood is now in the eight and are in a great position to not only play finals, but challenge for a premiership.
Here are the 10 reasons why Collingwood can win the flag in 2024.
1. Game plan changed on the run
There were claims after the opening three weeks that the Magpies had been found out, and weren’t willing to compete early in the season. But in the 10 weeks since their loss against St Kilda, where Fox Footy analyst Leigh Montagna said they “don’t look invested”, the Pies have changed. In the opening three games, Collingwood was sixth in the competition for corridor use coming out of defensive 50 and 12th for boundary use, but since then the Pies have been first for boundary use and second-last for corridor use. As a result, the Magpies have stopped conceding as much from turnover, and have become the best team at preventing scoring shots per inside 50 conceded. Their turnovers in the back half was a major criticism to start the year, and McRae has promptly addressed it since then.
2. The tested depth is surviving
Collingwood has endured one of the longest injury list in the competition. While the Magpies have used 34 players this season, it’s the A-graders missing games that could’ve caused a season capitulation. Tom Mitchell, Jordan De Goey and Scott Pendlebury are all missing and still weeks away, and Brody Mihocek, Dan McStay, Mason Cox and Jamie Elliott are absent up forward, but the Pies are winning games with their back ups. Ed Allan, Wil Parker, Joe Richards, Charlie Dean and Lachlan Sullivan made their debuts this year, and Harvey Harrison, Nathan Kreuger and Jack Bytel have added to their career tallies without the club taking a step backwards.
3. The makeshift forward line is still working
They are missing their key players, but they are still kicking scores. Despite patching together an inconsistent group of targets inside forward 50, Collingwood is still sixth in the competition for scoring since round 3, and are third for scores per inside 50. The main reason for the scoring consistency is due to the pressure applied, rather than the star power that occupies the forward line. Additions like Sullivan, Harrison and Richards, as well as the development of Beau McCreery and the addition of Lachie Schultz, has led to the Pies becoming one of the best pressure forward lines in the competition. Collingwood is rated sixth for time in forward half, and fifth for points from forward-half intercepts since round 3.
4. The defensive unit has gelled again
They were one of the best defensive units in the competition last year. Then there were concerning signs in the opening month of football that was so un-Collingwood-like. St Kilda in round 2 scored its second-biggest score of the season (94 points), bested only by its 103-point effort against the then-winless Kangaroos. Fox Footy’s David King said he didn’t know “if they’re as invested in this method of defence, or this pattern of play anymore … they’re looking for easy kicks.” But since that loss, the Pies have found their defensive groove, conceding the fourth-least scores in the competition, the least scoring shots per inside 50, and have the second best pressure rating across the league.
5. Most in-form team in the competition?
It is a debate to be had between Sydney, Collingwood and Hawthorn, but the Magpies’ 7-2-1 record since round 3 certainly rivals the Hawks’ 5-1 record. Less expectations on Hawthorn makes it certainly seem better, but while they’ve only lost once since round 3, the Pies have not taken many huge scalps. Edging past Carlton in round 8 is their best win this season, except for maybe the victory over Brisbane in round 4. Draws against Essendon on Anzac Day and Fremantle in Perth are both admirable results, though.
6. Close victories continue to stack up
It was known as a Craig McRae specialty, and that pattern has continued in 2024. The Magpies got a scare against the Hawks in round 4 but held on to win by five points, and edged past the Blues and the Crows by a kick or less as well. Collingwood was 8-1 in games decided by a single-digit margin in 2023, including wins in all three finals, and it’s a trend that has continued in 2024.
7. Who else is challenging?
Each week there seems to be a struggle of power near the top of the ladder. Sydney, as it stands, is a runaway favourite for the flag, but there is still a lot of games between now and September, and footy has already seen four premiership favourites this year. There seems to be a handful of teams vying for the title of second-best, with three wins separating Carlton in second and Hawthorn in 12th. Gold Coast, Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn and Brisbane are all sitting outside of the top eight but could make a run late in the season, while the top four teams is not clear cut.
8. Travel? No thanks
Collingwood playing a large chunk of its games at the MCG is not news. But it is a pretty ideal run home for the Magpies, and one that could push them comfortably into the top four and potentially for a finals campaign locked into the venue. Since their round 11 trip west to face Fremantle at Optus Stadium, the Pies leave Victoria twice (Gold Coast and Sydney), and play seven of their final eight matches at the MCG. Interestingly, Collingwood is 4-1-2 at the ground in 2024, with only one of those seven MCG games against a non-Victorian side (Brisbane).
9. Sydney the runaway favourite, but not at the MCG
Despite a public push for interstate grand finals to be introduced to the AFL, the season decider is still slated for the MCG. It is a ground that Sydney, who is the clear favourite for the flag, does not play overly well. The Swans are 2-1 at the ground in 2024, having lost to Richmond at the venue, but they won’t play at the ground again in the home-and-away season. They were 0-4 at the MCG in 2023, and 2-2 in 2022, which included the 81-point loss to Geelong in the grand final. In the past 10 seasons, Sydney has made three grand finals, started as the favourite for two of them, and have won none of them. It’s a hoodoo that they will stay with them until they win a flag.
10. The run home is a great balance between good match ups and tests
It’s a challenging run into a potential September berth, but that is to be expected coming off a premiership. The lack of travel certainly will help Collingwood, but there will be enough quality contests to keep the Pies on their toes. 13 wins should get a team into finals, meaning Collingwood need 12 (with two draws). Games against North Melbourne, Richmond, Brisbane and Melbourne should be easy victories, and while Hawthorn has tested the Pies in recent seasons they should claim another scalp there. Then there are games against Essendon, Geelong and Carlton at the MCG, as well as interstate trips to Gold Coast and Sydney. The Pies will win enough games to make the top eight, with enough tests to make sure they are battle-hardened heading into another finals campaign. And once they’re there, watch out.
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