West Coast has lost the most games as favourite in 2017

DAVID King didn’t hold back when he delivered a withering spray of West Coast but the Eagles’ loss to Collingwood was another example of their failure to deal with expectation.

Eagles players walk off Etihad Stadium after their loss to Collingwood. Picture: AAP

WEST Coast is a team that cannot be trusted.

Despite starting just three games as outsiders the Eagles are in a battle to play finals.

In 14 games as favourite this season West Coast has failed in eight of them, more than half and the most of any other team.

Putting it simply, Adam Simpson’s team is underachieving and overrated.

21ST CENTURY: FOOTY’S MOST-LOVED CULT HEROES

MARQUEE GAME: MAGPIES EYE QUEEN’S BIRTHDAY RICHES

To highlight how far below expectations West Coast is performing, all but two Herald Sun experts expected the Eagles to make finals in their pre-season forecasts.

Commentator David King was scathing about the Eagles performance against Collingwood at Etihad Stadium last Sunday.

The loss pushed them out of the top eight and King said the problem was their attitude and singled out Mark LeCras’, who “should never play again”.

Only Adelaide and GWS have started more games as favourite than West Coast (16), according to Champion Data, but the top-placed Crows have 12 wins and the Giants have won nine with two draws.

The Eagles’ winning percentage of 43 per cent as favourite ranks 13th in the competition and is 15 per cent below the league average, above one Gold Coast, Hawthorn, Collingwood, Carlton and Brisbane, but those five teams have been underdogs more often than favourites.

AS FAVOURITE	Games	Wins	Win %
Richmond	9	7	78%
Adelaide	16	12	75%
Geelong	13	9	69%
Western Bulldogs	13	9	69%
Port Adelaide	12	8	67%
Sydney	11	7	64%
Melbourne	7	4	57%
St Kilda	7	4	57%
GWS	16	9	56%
Essendon	6	3	50%
Fremantle	6	3	50%
North Melbourne	4	2	50%
West Coast	14	6	43%
Gold Coast	5	2	40%
Hawthorn	6	2	33%
Collingwood	7	2	29%
Carlton	1	0	0%
Brisbane	0	0	0%
AFL AVERAGE			58%

Aside from the Magpies loss, the unreliable Eagles will also rue frustrating defeats against Port Adelaide, Melbourne and GWS at home, Gold Coast at Carrara and Hawthorn at the MCG when the Hawks were winless and at their lowest ebb.

Adding to the frustration for their supporters is they have saluted in all three games they gone in as the underdog.

But the capitulation to Collingwood was most galling after Elliot Yeo missed an open goal to extend the Eagles’ lead to 22 points before they were overrun in the final 10 minutes.

In the final quarter West Coast lost the contested ball count by 22 and 13 players failed to record a contested possession, including Matt Priddis, Luke Shuey, Andrew Gaff and Yeo.

Luke Shuey’s output has been down this year, along with several other leading Eagles. Picture: Michael Klein

This season the Eagles are ranked 15th for contested possession differential, 16th for clearance differential and 12th for inside 50 differential — down from ninth, ninth and sixth in 2016.

Priddis and Shuey are also struggling to find their best form, along with Sam Mitchell, and LeCras was goalless for the fifth time in the past seven games.

LeCras’ and Shuey’s effort raised the ire of King, who he accused the latter of “doing his own thing” against the Magpies.

Priddis, Shuey and Mitchell averaged more than 100 ranking points last season, but all are below triple figures this year, and LeCras is averaging 13.5 ranking points less than last year.

RANKING POINTS DROP OFF
Player	2016	2017	Diff
Mark Hutchings	72.2	56	-16.2
Matt Pridds	108.5	93.2	-15.3
Mark LeCras	78.2	64.7	-13.5
Jonathan Giles	71.1	60.7	-10.4
Eric Mackenzie	65.3	55.1	-10.2
Luke Shuey	106	96.3	-9.7
Sam Mitchell	103.1	93.6	-9.5
Jamie Cripps	68.3	62.6	-5.7
Sam Butler	62.5	58	-4.5
Brad Sheppard	65.7	61.9	-3.8

Veteran recruiter Gary Buckenara highlighted the Eagles’ lack of A-grade players in his analysis of the West Coast list for heraldsun.com.au.

It doesn’t help when those players are underperforming or are missing with injury.

Priddis and Shuey were rated elite and Mitchell and LeCras above average by Champion Data at the start of the season.

Josh Kennedy and Nic Naitanui are among six Eagles that were classed as elite but Kennedy missed a chunk of games with a calf injury and Naitanui is yet to play after rupturing his ACL last year.

West Coast is only percentage out of the top eight but the next three weeks will determine its fate.

Home games against Brisbane and Carlton should go in the book as wins, but in between is a return to Etihad Stadium where the Eagles face St Kilda in what could be a sudden-death game.

The Eagles complete the home-and-away season with a trip to GWS and a home clash against Adelaide.