St Kilda’s damning record against top-eight sides putting the pressure on coach Alan Richardson
St Kilda powerbrokers have told Alan Richardson he needs wins against top-eight sides and the club’s record against finals contenders could prove his undoing.
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Even Carlton has beaten a top-eight side.
For Alan Richardson, that eight-word sentence might end up his coaching epitaph as it becomes apparent St Kilda is planning for 2020 without him.
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As Simon Lethlean said on the airwaves on Sunday, it is nothing he didn’t tell his senior coach the day before their stinker against Brisbane.
St Kilda has suggested that Lethlean had simply stated the truth — that halfway through the year he is yet to prove he is the man for next year.
But if Richardson hasn’t convinced St Kilda he is worthy after 123 games and five and a half seasons in charge, surely nothing he does in 10 weeks is about to.
And the glaring statistic that St Kilda is the only team in the competition not to knock over a team currently in the eight adds weight to the rolling stone gathering pace.
In Richardson’s defence Hawthorn were seventh on the ladder after Round 3 and yet were beaten by the Saints in a five-point nailbiter.
But since then St Kilda has pretty much beaten nothing.
They beat Gold Coast in Round 1 (they are now second last), Essendon in Round 2 (they were last on the ladder) and Melbourne in Round 5 (they were 16th).
When they beat Carlton in Round 10 they were 18th and their second win over Gold Coast came when the Suns were 17th on the ladder.
Yet St Kilda’s record against current top eight sides is disastrous, the five-point Marvel loss to West Coast their only margin of less than three goals.
Fair enough too, given they are ravaged by injuries.
Yet both Lethlean and president Andrew Bassatt have set top-eight victories as a key marker for his survival, a high bar he seems extremely unlikely to jump over.
Against top-eight sides St Kilda are 17th for points for and 18th for points against, 15th for contested possession differential and 18th in goals per entry against.
When you have five of your top seven players from last year’s best-and-fairest out good sides will get you on the rebound.
But what has become clear is the reality St Kilda are decimated by injuries won’t be enough to save Richardson.
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Even though he has an identifiable game plan, has developed Jack Billings, Rowan Marshall and Josh Battle.
Even though he took a young side to 23 wins in 2016-2017 before last year’s shocker and has an honourable 6-7 win-loss tally with the third-most injuries in the competition.
Wins against elite teams — starting with Richmond then against Geelong, Adelaide and Fremantle — are the only way for him to stay alive as a senior coach.
Hit the wall against Richmond and the doubters will say they are only ninth on the ladder.
Win and he gives himself what looks a stay of execution and a fortnight before taking on ladder leaders Geelong at GMHBA Stadium in one of footy’s toughest road trips.
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