The List Manager: Jon Ralph examines Richmond’s current list, its future and everything in between
By the time round 1 rolls around in 2025, the Tigers will be unrecognisable from the AFL’s last dynasty. Jon Ralph writes, it’s the right approach as opposed to wallowing in mediocrity.
Richmond
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Richmond will be unrecognisable from the club that won its 2020 premiership when round 1 rolls around against Carlton.
Gone will be the coach, the captain, the Norm Smith Medal-winning champion, the three-time Coleman Medallist, the chief executive, the president, the recruiter who built the list.
The only seven players remaining from that side 91 games on will be Noah Balta, Nick Vlastuin, Kamdyn McIntosh, Dion Prestia, Tom Lynch, Toby Nankervis, Jayden Short and Nathan Broad.
And yet if the seismic changes that have occurred to this list in the past two months were unexpected last March, few Tigers fans would believe it is the wrong move.
Richmond hoped to buck footy’s equalisation trends like Sydney and Geelong, were decimated by injuries that included five ACL tears, were almost certainly not good enough anyway, then endured an exodus of four premiership players.
List boss Blair Hartley was adamant post-trade period they all left for valid reasons – Liam Baker was homesick, Shai Bolton had always wanted to go home, Rioli was seeking new challenges in the twilight of his career.
What is also true is that coach Adem Yze endured a challenging first season establishing his game plan so soon after Damien Hardwick’s glory era as he tried to find a balance between cuddling and crucifying his players during their two-win season.
Richmond’s view is that Yze will have a much stronger presence in 2025 after a year of exploration.
They believe it is much better for a coach to tread lightly as he establishes relationships than to lose a group early when it was apparent from the injury toll that this was not a year to challenge.
So from the loss of this year’s best-and-fairest winner (Rioli) and equal fifth-place getters (Baker and Bolton) Richmond secures an all-time draft haul.
It is timed to perfection – ahead of Tasmania’s introduction which will dominate coming drafts and gives Richmond a purpose again next year.
Rather than wallowing in mediocrity as it has since the three-flag dynasty – with a single finals appearance and no September triumphs – it attempts to rebuild with purpose and speed.
Carlton has shown those list builds can take six or seven seasons and guarantee nothing
But with the rebuild forced upon it, Richmond has its own blueprint in the past decade to replicate as it sets its sights on its next flag.
TRADE PERIOD RATING 8/10
This could have been a fire sale.
Instead list boss Blair Hartley had his finest hour, especially given he was also the club’s quasi recruiting boss as tragedy struck Richmond with the passing of first-year recruiter Chris Toce.
He made crystal clear to rival bosses his contracted players were only moving for top dollar, and nailed those trades.
Even when Bolton dazzles for the Dockers next year Richmond will be safe in the knowledge it could scarcely have secured a greater return than 10, 11 and 18 for 14 and a future third.
Ditto for securing pick six and 23 (with 51, 61, 70 and 76 back) for Rioli.
It was clearly way over the odds but he had a recent best and fairest to his name and the Suns were desperate.
The Dogs only had one suitor for Bailey Smith and got pick 17.
In a season where everything that could go wrong did, at least Richmond’s departing stars left for clubs stocked with elite picks.
Jack Graham’s free agency loss was a blow – at his best his defensive running is elite and the compensation middling at pick 42.
At least the club kept Nathan Broad despite the Roos three-year offer given his role as a popular teammate and underrated third defender.
LIST HOLES
Lynch has played eight of Richmond’s last 46 games, so for the sake of the exercise consider what Richmond’s front six looks like early next year without him.
No Bolton, Martin, no Baker, with Noah Balta potentially needed back early until Josh Gibcus and Tylar Young return from ACL surgery.
No Mykelti Lefau until maybe eight weeks into the season after his ACL tear, no Noah Cumberland (delisted).
So potentially the underrated Rhyan Mansell, Jacob Koschitzke, Samson Ryan, Seth Campbell, Maurice Rioli with Ben Miller and Jacob Bauer the other options.
Mid-season draftee Bauer kicked four goals in three late-season games and at only 22 years of age is a prospect as a 192cm forward.
It’s damned thin.
In a team that already ranked last in points scored, with Bolton the only player to kick 30 goals and Mansell (21) the only other player over 14.
So there are plenty of gaping holes in this list.
And yet if there will be issues until Young, Lefau and Gibcus return from their issues, Yze can build from the backline out.
There will be times in 2025 where Balta, Gibcus and Young look like a trio of talls who can take on all comers for the next 6-8 years, supported by Nick Vlastuin, Nathan Broad, the exciting Tom Brown and Jayden Short.
Throw in Hugo Ralphsmith and Sam Banks and there is hope in what the defence can build.
Balta is clearly the swingman in that mix, especially if Gibcus’ summer progresses as planned after his round 1 ACL tear.
The midfield ….
So much depends on what Richmond drafts on Wednesday night.
Richmond believes Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper are more important than ever the stars are gone – and with it their centre square razzle dazzle – but so too are depth players like Jack Graham.
But Richmond will potentially take three of the top 10 midfielders in the draft, and simply has to expose the likes of Thomson Dow, Tyler Sonsie and big-bodied Kane McAuliffe.
Captain Toby Nankervis must stand tall given Yze rarely played ruck-forward Samson Ryan, while Ben Miller played 23 games as a full-time defender after some time in the ruck the previous year.
DRAFT STRATEGY
Eight picks within 24 gives Richmond almost unlimited options.
The prevailing wisdom is they will go for the X-factor talent in a draft with a heap of not-very-tall, quick, polished mids that still lacks a Sam Walsh or Jason Horne-Francis type.
Likely No. 1 pick Sam Lalor racks it up and goes forward with high marks and don’t-argue fends, and Richmond has long admired the rangy 194cm mid Josh Smillie as a point of difference mid.
His last month in the Coates League might have convinced them he is worth taking at pick 6 after a middling national championships.
There is every chance Richmond will take a third mid (Bo Allan or Xavier Lindsay) with pick 10 before finding one of the key forwards – the Whitlock twins or Harry Armstrong.
Richmond has the first pick in the second round on night two, so could trade that pick or shuffle back a handful of selections with a rival happy to hand over an additional future pick.
Richmond is happy to stagger its draft haul over the next two drafts and will likely finish last next year.
So securing a selection like North Melbourne’s future first-rounder for one of its top 20 picks makes sense to give it a headstart with what will likely be two top-six picks next year.
AFL PLAYER RATINGS
In 2024 Toby Nankervis was ranked No. 53 with Liam Baker 78th, and Daniel Rioli 86th. Tim Taranto was 98th and Dion Prestia 101st. With a full season Taranto can get back in the top 30.
PREMIERSHIP WINDOW
No team is further from a premiership than Richmond. But setting a course for that goal – a fourth flag since 2017 – gives Richmond a purpose rather than meandering around lost in the middle of the chasing pack.
SALARY CAP ROOM
Dustin Martin’s expiring deal and the last year of Tom Lynch’s contract in 2025 already meant Richmond was clearing vast cap space.
Now Rioli, Bolton and Baker leave and while Rioli was potentially underpaid given his last two years of output it clears more than $2.5 million in cap space. So Richmond will front-end deals and bank cap space, aware 2026 is probably the first season it would hit the free agency market.
TRADE TARGETS 2025
Richmond will back itself to remain a destination club – with an inner-city location, a quality brand that helps players maximise sponsorship dollars and an imminent Punt Road redevelopment to bring it up to standard with rival clubs.
But it cannot give up valuable draft picks next year and the free agency market is already woefully thin as players like their own Noah Balta sign long deals a year out from eligibility.
So there will be targeted acquisitions but surely few big splashes at the end of next year.
The question will be whether they can target interstate players in the right age bracket to bring in some experience if they want to return home, like Port Adelaide’s Josh Sinn or Miles Bergman or GWS small forward Xavier O’Halloran.
TRADE BAIT
Richmond says it has had conversations with Hopper and Taranto and they are committed and along for the ride even if the destination has changed in the past six months.
Clubs might consider if they can secure one of them, but both are on lucrative deals and Hopper especially is injury prone (35 games in three years).
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