Richmond’s chances of playing finals rest on Dustin Martin’s goal kicking, writes David King
IF Dustin Martin doesn’t have a 30-plus goal season in 2017, Richmond cannot contend for the finals. It’s as simple as that, writes David King.
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DUSTIN Martin is the AFL’s best target inside the attacking 50m zone.
Since 2010, Martin has won a greater percentage of one-on-ones than any other player. Think about that for a moment.
One-on-one, Martin is better than Lance Franklin, Tom Lynch, Josh Kennedy ... any other player you’d like to nominate.
Richmond coach Damien Hardwick is now maximising this asset as he did way back in 2013 by allowing Martin all the space he wants in the forward half. It’s Dusty’s Paddock.
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Out Jack Riewoldt, push up Ben Griffiths — basically, get out of Martin’s way and let him go to work.
The competition has evolved into a concertinaing of 36 players squeezing the field, often all of them within 40m of the ball.
Throughout the JLT Community Series, Hardwick bucked that trend and isolated Martin deep inside the forward line regardless of his opponent’s positioning or where the ball was — at minimum 30m further forward than any other coach is prepared to hold his deepest forward.
If the Tigers can move the ball effectively, Martin will kick goals.
The rules committee should celebrate this innovation and dare from Hardwick as it could be the move that eases congestion, one small step at a time.
The big question is whether the Tiger midfield can learn to survive and thrive without Martin. The truth is they haven’t relied solely on him. In fact the centre bounce clearance situation is so random that the Tigers are statistically better served without him.
Can Damien Hardwick bring himself to leave Martin forward for a half? Find out what he’s capable of? What if he kicks five goals in the first half on Friday night. Please, Damien, please!
Hardwick will be hoping Anthony Miles, currently not in his best 22, will be able to recapture his early Richmond form and that Josh Caddy brings consistency that we didn’t see when he was at Geelong.
Dion Prestia is an A-Grader who will assume significant midfield responsibility, a clearance beast who will have an impact at Tigerland like no other targeted recruit since Nathan Brown, and that was a decade ago.
Prestia will be a cult figure for the Tiger faithful, who will be attracted immediately by his toughness and single-minded approach to hunting the ball.
Trent Cotchin must elevate his capacity to get the game played in the Richmond forward half, whether that be through winning clearances or his ball use on transition from the defensive half.
Make no mistake about Cotchin’s desire to drive the Tigers back up the ladder. He will leave
no stone unturned to deliver personally, but a captain must ensure the group follows.
In Cotchin’s Brownlow year of 2012 he rotated through onball and deep forward roles. He and Martin kicked 44 goals between them, most of them in final quarters and often when a game was in the balance.
It’s time for Hardwick to go retro in 2017.
Martin kicked only nine goals last season, dramatically down on the previous five seasons when he boasted a 23-goal minimum return.
If he doesn’t have a 30-plus goal season, Richmond simply cannot contend for the finals. It’s as simple as that.
Jack Riewoldt needs support and after the trading of Ty Vickery there is no second banana in the forward half.
Hardwick tried to commit Cotchin and Martin forward for long periods last season but the midfield couldn’t generate enough supply to enable an adequate scoreboard return.
The Martin conundrum basically becomes a decision of quantity over quality. Despite him winning five more disposals on average in 2016 than in 2015, he was involved in fewer scores.
Of the AFL’s top 50 ball winners, Martin ranks 27th for goals and 31st for score involvements. He can be a turnover merchant — he averaged the second most turnovers in the AFL last year. The fend-off masks the real problems.
The Tigers look to new personnel and a new, pressure-packed small forward mix. Dan Butler and Jason Castagna have modernised a front half that, combined with Daniel Rioli, is reaping scoreboard benefits unseen during Hardwick’s coaching tenure.
In 2016 the Tigers averaged 26 points (AFL 13th) from forward-half pressure and turnover but throughout the JLT Series that has spiked to 41 points per game, the AFL’s best return. Considering the pre-season games are 20 minutes shorter than the average 2016 home-and-away game, it unearths a whole new scoring profile for the Tigers.
With No.4 lurking deep, the way forward is clear.
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