Champion Data reveal best, worst kick rating in the AFL in The Drill podcast

THERE is a much better way to judge a player’s kicking skills than basic disposal efficiency. And it lays bare a big issue for Richmond. BEST AND WORST KICKS REVEALED

Richmond midfielder Shaun Grigg needs to work on his kicking.

RICHMOND fans have reason to be nervous when Shaun Grigg takes possession.

The Tiger’s kick rating is the poorest in the AFL, as revealed on this week’s episode of The Drill podcast.

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And while Collingwood captain Scott Pendlebury expectedly came out on top as the league’s best ball user by foot, in-demand Greater Western Sydney star Josh Kelly has a chink in his armour.

Kelly has hit 42.3 per cent of targets this season, below his expected hit rate of 47.1 per cent given the difficulty of kicks he has attempted.

Shaun Grigg tries tough kicks, and they don’t always come off. Picture: Michael Klein

Champion Data’s Daniel Hoyne explained kick ratings give a far better guide than kicking efficiency.

“Kicking efficiency doesn’t take into account the degree of difficulty of the kick,” Hoyne said.

“Kick rating does. It takes into account how much pressure you’re under, and what type of kick you’re actually trying to pull off.

“If you’re under physical pressure and you’re trying to kick long to a guy on the lead, your expected hit rate might be 38 per cent.

“If you hit that kick, you’re +62 per cent. If you miss that kick, you’re -38 per cent.”

There’s a good chance this Scott Pendlebury kick hit the target. Picture: George Salpigtidis

Heath Shaw is also a very accurate kick.

Hoyne said that players who chip sideways in defence might do so effectively, but their kick rating will hover around zero because they are hitting expected targets.

The list of the best kicks includes plenty of half-back weapons, including Melbourne’s Christian Salem.

The Demons try to get the ball in Salem’s hands when kicking inside 50m, identifying him as a star link man.

This week’s episode of The Drill also revealed the ‘P Rule’ which has determined most of St Kilda’s results this season and clocked Hunt’s torpedo goal against Port Adelaide at 62m.

Hunt’s bomb was the 16th longest since the stat was first recorded five years ago, with Jon Patton’s 72m goal at the SCG early last season No.1.

The Drill also revealed Champion Data’s Brownlow Medal predictor after Round 17, identified Essendon’s transformed game plan and stated the statistical fluctuations in finals chances from this weekend’s games.

BEST KICK RATING 2017

		KICK	EXPECTED	HIT	RATING
Scott Pendlebury	Coll	186	49.0%	59.7%	+10.7%
Michael Johnson	Frem	165	63.9%	74.5%	+10.6%
Adam Tomlinson	GWS	163	59.6%	68.7%	+9.2%
Gary Ablett	GC	206	47.0%	54.4%	+7.4%
Heath Shaw	GWS	257	59.2%	66.1%	+7.0%
Daniel Rich	BL	198	52.4%	59.1%	+6.6%
Zach Tuohy	Geel	225	51.8%	58.2%	+6.4%
Christian Salem	Melb	159	57.9%	64.2%	+6.2%
Jayden Hunt	Melb	154	46.0%	51.9%	+6.0%
Jeremy Howe	Coll	193	60.0%	65.8%	+5.8%

WORST KICK RATING 2017

		KICK	EXPECTED	HIT	RATING
Shaun Grigg	Rich	164	43.6%	34.1%	-9.5%
Patrick Dangerfield	Geel	150	37.7%	28.7%	-9.0%
Jack Crisp	Coll	157	59.4%	53.5%	-5.9%
Tom Rockliff	BL	183	56.4%	50.8%	-5.5%
Ollie Wines	PA	164	42.2%	37.2%	-5.0%
Josh Kelly	GWS	175	47.1%	42.3%	-4.8%
Luke McDonald	NM	163	43.9%	39.3%	-4.6%
Luke Shuey	WC	165	52.4%	47.9%	-4.6%
Lachie Weller	Frem	169	47.7%	43.2%	-4.5%
Josh P. Kennedy	Syd	150	44.6%	40.7%	-3.9%