Wreck It Ralph: Melbourne have steadied the ship — now they should look to the future
The Demons have stemmed the bleeding. But it is now time for a list revamp with some tough calls to be made. Who stays and who goes? Who are the potential recruits? Jon Ralph has the analysis.
Melbourne
Don't miss out on the headlines from Melbourne. Followed categories will be added to My News.
Of all the strong opinions held by Essendon supporters these past nine weeks not one has been this: why did we let go of Jake Stringer?
Brad Scott’s relative position of strength compared to his coaching rival Simon Goodwin allowed him to ship off Jake to the Giants where he has so far continued his injury battle.
GWS only requires one game-turning final to justify Stringer’s acquisition, but his departure made clear the Dons were charting a path for the medium-term future.
They weren’t fully rebuilding, just realising their list didn’t quite cut it so it was time to stockpile more elite young talent.
Melbourne’s sharpest football minds might have already known that about their list as they entered round one.
But the political climate at the club after so many controversies in the past 18 months – and Goodwin’s own shaky position – meant no one could come out and actually say it.
Instead the only option was to abort or deny trades for Kozzie Pickett, Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver, re-sign club leaders Max Gawn and Jack Viney on fat deals and bunker down.
Yet their round 1 team, featuring Aidan Johnson, Matthew Jefferson, Xavier Lindsay, Harvey Langford, Harry Sharp and Jack Henderson, made it clear they knew where they were at.
Not good enough to bring out the 2024 side and just hope all the distractions of last year were the only factor in a bottom six finish.
Nine weeks in and Melbourne has steadied its ship tactically, shored up its coach’s position, and yet still isn’t anywhere near the AFL’s best sides.
At 3-6, it isn’t time for despair though.
It isn’t even time to give the season away – the Demons face Brisbane (away), Collingwood, Gold Coast and Adelaide in the next 11 weeks but also West Coast, North Melbourne, St Kilda (twice), Port Adelaide and Sydney.
But the sample size we have seen so far is enough to show the course ahead.
Like Essendon has in recent years, the Demons can lift their eyes to the horizon and set that course for 2027-2029 through smart list management moves that require bravery and an element of risk.
WHERE TO FROM HERE?
It would have been obvious to every Demons fan who watched that changing of the guard on Saturday that the future is Harvey Langford and his cohort, as selfless as Clayton Oliver was in his tagging role on Jai Newcombe.
Melbourne can now be open to the kind of trading opportunities it wasn’t six months ago when it was so toxic Dan Houston reneged on a deal and trading Oliver or Petracca would have deepened their club crisis.
Former Melbourne chief executive Peter Jackson arrived at the Dees in 2013 and had his own formula for running a rule over the club’s prospects.
How many officials have we got in the top quartile of the league? Is our chief executive in the top four CEOs in clubland?
How about our coach or president or captain?
Melbourne’s president and CEO of 2026 aren’t even in their roles yet – Steven Smith and Paul Guerra – but their list boss and recruiting boss are incredible.
Just as Richmond had total confidence in Blair Hartley to steer its ship – Richmond chose total rebuild over revamp – the Demons have the men for the job.
List boss Tim Lamb and head recruiter Jason Taylor have already helped win one flag for this club.
And given a much more stable platform this year should have carte blanche to make decisions to win this club a flag in that 2027-2032 window.
Consider the talent under the elite core.
Lindsay, Langford, Caleb Windsor, Koltyn Tholstrup (both 19), Judd McVee (21), Jake Bowey, Daniel Turner, Trent Rivers, Pickett (23), Tom Sparrow (24), Kade Chandler, Charlie Spargo (25).
What Melbourne does have is a gap in that group that normally wins you flags as they peak between 26 to 29 years of age.
Harrison Petty is 25, Clayton Oliver, Bayley Fritsch 28, Jake Lever, Petracca, Christian Salem and Ed Langdon 29 with Jack Viney 31 and Max Gawn and Steven May both 33.
So Lamb and the club’s list management committee can now put in place a list revamp that still allows Petracca a chance at a second flag but makes tough choices with high-profile players.
KOZZIE PICKETT
Melbourne’s No.1 priority with Pickett should be to extend his contract, not allow him to leave.
He is a generational talent who transforms Melbourne from drab to dangerous.
His new manager Anthony Van Der Wielen will spend the next few months finding out what Pickett really wants.
Safe to say the Dockers are relatively confident given the links to their club – Shai Bolton, Isaiah Dudley, Quinton Narkle, whose partner Taylah Cubillo is the sister of Pickett’s partner Ardu Cubillo.
Van Der Wielen didn’t take him on to move him west like fellow clients Tim Kelly and Bolton, he did it because Kelly and Bolton were keen to have him on board.
He wants to set up Pickett’s financial future past 2027, so is open to a contract extension wherever it comes.
So Melbourne’s priority shouldn’t be to retain him to 2027, it should be offering him a long-term deal on well over $1 million past that date.
If it costs $4 million to extend him from 2027 to 2030, then so be it.
They are very open to that possibility but for now are thrilled he is playing dynamic football and is enjoying his time at the club.
Securing two mid-ranked first-rounders for Pickett (and some steak-knives picks) will never get them fair compensation so the only play is to keep him or extend him.
CLAYTON OLIVER
At the end of the year the Demons should be prepared to shake hands with Clayton Oliver and thank him for a job well done if he does want a fresh start.
He has won them a flag, is a two-time AFLCA champion player of the year, three-time All Australian, four-time best-and-fairest winner.
But it is up to him to sacrifice his salary rather than the Demons paying a big chunk of his deal for the next five years if he does depart.
And the ball needs to be in his court over whether he wants to leave rather than another bungled attempt to jettison him behind his back.
If he does leave, getting that $8 million plus salary off his books is more important than actually getting some kind of mid-range pick back.
He signed that deal at the absolute top of the market – in mid-2022 as a pre-agent who was All Australian and the AFLCA Champion player of that year only months later.
It is why he is on $1.5 million to $1.7 million a season across the next five years – the Demons had to match rival deals or lose him as a free agent the next year.
But if they had a choice of getting a mid-range pick while paying $500,000 a year of his salary elsewhere for five seasons or just letting him go for a future fourth, the latter option holds much more appeal.
Look what clubs with cap space have been able to do this year – the Dogs could absorb Matt Kennedy’s wage, St Kilda could accept Jackson Macrae’s wage while still having space for the monster TDK offer.
Melbourne already has cap space after missing out on Dan Houston, so having $2 million in space they didn’t consider mid 2024 opens all kinds of options.
It might be an 18-month play – getting into the Zak Butters or Ben King race next year – but it gives a club still paying Angus Brayshaw salary more flexibility.
THE FUTURE
The Demons are still keen on GWS 23-year-old swingman Wade Derksen, who has now taken 15 intercept marks in the past fortnight playing VFL.
He is the perfect age to blossom if given a chance at Melbourne.
The Demons cannot give up on Jacob Van Rooyen, who is totally bereft of confidence after 58 goals in his first 41 AFL games and only four in his six games this year.
Maybe a stint down back would help his confidence because the need for an elite key tall is obvious and having given up pick 19 for him and pick 15 for Matthew Jefferson one of them needs to emerge as a reliable target.
Melbourne has to find a way to get back into the draft after handing over its 2025 first-rounder for Lindsay, and can drag a 2026 first-rounder into this year.
It would be incredibly dangerous to consider trading 29-year-old Petracca because A-graders win you flags and he is once more settled, invested and playing good if not incredible football.
So don’t rock the apple cart there.
He was only interested in a move to Carlton or Collingwood last year, and neither of them even have a first-round pick this year.
Steven May is 33 and unlikely to secure a pick of significance, Jake Lever holds this backline together, Bayley Fritsch is 28 but wants to stay on.
Christian Salem is 29 and a nice flanker but doesn’t impact games dramatically.
So apart from Pickett there isn’t an obvious trade option like there was for Richmond when Bolton and Daniel Rioli left for such a massive trade haul.
Melbourne hasn’t given up on Luke Jackson returning but every time Sean Darcy’s knee fails him the Dockers’ resolve to retain their unicorn of a ruckman should harden.
Jackson is contracted to 2029, has games-based clauses for even longer, will soon be paid over $1 million a year and the Dockers would be plain stupid to let him leave for any sum or trade package.
So the task ahead is simple.
Keep playing the kids, slowly begin to integrate the Brad Scott-style message about considering the medium-term future, keep working on those relationships.
Then if a knock-your-socks off offer comes for Lever or Petracca or Pickett, the discussions can be had in a calm, sensible manner instead of the Demons losing in the kind of fire sale they would have had to accept last year.
A premiership within the last five seasons gives the club and its coach some breathing space, as does a president (Brad Green) and a new CEO (Paul Guerra) who would like Goodwin to be part of the future.
There are extremely tough decisions ahead but Goodwin needs to go from crisis management expert to salesman.
Former Melbourne coach Neale Daniher was once dubbed ‘The Reverend’ for his hot-gospelling, salesmanship and inspirational speeches and now Goodwin must get on the pulpit to sell his message of hope for the future ahead.
Selfless Oliver shows he’s all in – and Dees love him for it
After his trade to Geelong fell through, critics have been questioning just how invested Clayton Oliver is at Melbourne. On Saturday, they got their answer.
Oliver’s sliding scale: Precedent set for Dees to cut ties with Clarry
Clayton Oliver’s drop-off in two years is as steep as we have ever seen, writes Jay Clark. And it could mean the Dees get desperate during trade period to cut ties with the premiership midfielder.