Uncanny stats show Melbourne is on a similar path to Richmond of 2017
FORGET the ladder position, forget the bad loss to the Hawks and forget the injuries. SAM LANDSBERGER explains why Melbourne is the Richmond of last year.
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MELBOURNE is the Richmond of last year.
Not quite the premiership version, but rather the Tigers of 12 months ago.
They are mimicking exactly what was exciting about Damien Hardwick’s outfit and they are mimicking the conversion concerns that would’ve kept the coach up at night early in the year.
A deep look at the Demons’ game style and the resemblance to the 5-1 Tigers quickly becomes uncanny.
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Last season the football world gushed at the Tigers’ insane pressure levels, particularly in the forward half.
At this stage of 2017 the Tigers were applying 182 pressure points per match, creating 31 forward-half turnovers and 33.3 forward-half stoppages.
At this stage of 2018 the Demons are applying 185 pressure points per match, creating 32.3 forward-half turnovers (ranked No. 1) and 38.2 forward-half stoppages (No. 1).
Coach Simon Goodwin hasn’t copied Richmond’s style, he has simply improved his own system.
Demons supporters would be forgiven for feeling a little uneasy so far this season. At 3-3 there has been some turbulence and frustration from a team expected to take a big leap forward in 2018.
But these are the numbers which should calm that queasy feeling.
“I thought our second half resembled the way we want to play,” Goodwin said last week.
Goodwin has the Dees playing a brand of football the brains of the game label ‘sustainable’ and the challenge now is to continue tracking along the path travelled by Richmond.
Cynics will point to the calamity against Hawthorn in Round 4 — a 67-point loss. But with the competition tighter than ever it is reasonable to expect every team will put in a stinker at some stage.
Look at Richmond in Round 2 (36-point loss to Adelaide), Adelaide in Round 4 (48-point loss to Collingwood), Collingwood in Round 1 (34-point loss to Hawthorn), Port Adelaide in Round 4 (22-point loss to Essendon) and Greater Western Sydney on Friday night.
What is important for Melbourne is the way it plays.
Like the Tigers, the Demons want to play a strong territory game. They want to lock the ball in their forward half for as long as possible and they are doing just that.
Time in forward half is a proven ingredient for premiership success when you look at the past 10 premiers.
Richmond (2017) ranked No. 2, Western Bulldogs (2016) No. 2, Hawthorn (2015 and 2013) No. 2, Geelong (2011) No. 2 and Collingwood (2010) No.1.
Right now, the Demons rank No. 1 for time in forward half. The concern for Goodwin is their inability to cash in on the scoreboard, ranking No. 9 for scores per inside 50 and No. 9 in attack.
This time last year the Tigers ranked No. 9 in attack No. 12 for scores per inside 50. Then, from Round 17 to the Grand Final, it clicked for Richmond.
The Tigers rose their scores per inside 50 from No. 12 to No. 6 and their total points to No. 1 as their pressure and time in forward half went up another level.
Can Melbourne do the same?
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