The statistics that reveal ‘irrelevant’ Melbourne’s shocking demise
After finished third and making the preliminary final last season Melbourne — with just five wins — is staring down the barrel of the second-worst ladder tumble of any club in the past two decades. Here’s why.
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“Irrelevant”. An “aberration”. “Not that good”.
The knives are out for Melbourne and a deep dive into the statistics reveals the Demons are on the verge of one of footy’s worst falls from grace in nearly two decades.
Entering the season as one of the premiership favourites, the Demons have done nothing but disappoint.
After finished third and making the preliminary final last season Melbourne, with just five wins, is staring down the barrel of the second-worst ladder tumble of any club since 2000.
Only the Fremantle side of 2016 (first in 2015, 16th the next year) recorded a larger drop than the Demons’ current third to second-last.
The true toll of Jesse Hogan’s departure and the failed seasons of forwards Tom McDonald and Sam Weideman are illustrated by the Demons’ stunning drop-off in scoring.
During last year’s stunning run, Melbourne piled on 101.3 points per game — No.1 in the competition. This time round, the Dees are third-last at 73.3 — almost five fewer goals per game. Meanwhile, they have conceded an average of 90.9 points a game, up from 79.5 last season — almost a two-goal increase.
That has led to the third-biggest drop in percentage since 2000. Melbourne finished 2018 with the princely percentage of 131.4. The Dees are now paupers at just 80.6 — down 50.8 per cent in 12 months. Only the 2001-02 Carlton side (128.6 to 73.13) and Collingwood in 2011-12 (167.6-116.5) were worse.
It’d be easy to blame the woes on poor delivery from a handball-happy midfield, but the Dees are still No.2 in the competition for inside-50 differential, meaning their forwards are having more chances to score than their opponents. Last year, almost a quarter of their inside-50 entries resulted in goals — fourth in the league. This season, they’re dead last.
Jimmy Bartel said this week “it’d really piss you off” if you were “superstar ruckman” Max Gawn.
He certainly isn’t to blame for his team’s fall from grace. The Demons are still No.1 in the AFL for hitouts to advantage differential (+8) and second in hitout differential (+17.1).
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Gawn is rated by Champion Data as the second-best ruckman in the competition, behind Brodie Grundy. The 27-year-old tower is No.1 in hitouts to advantage and intercept marks and No.2 in possessions — he’s pulling his weight, but few others are.
Only Gawn, Christian Salem and Christian Petracca are considered by Champion Data to be elite in their positions.
Petracca is rated an elite general forward, but the promise of him becoming the star, line-breaking midfielder he was touted as five years ago — when the Demons spent their No.2 pick on him — is fast fading.
Weideman, 22, announced himself to the footy world with a three-goal, 24-disposal demolition of Geelong in last year’s elimination final, but he hasn’t come close to emulating that form in 2019, spending time in the VFL amid reports he wanted a contract worth north of $600,000.
Tom McDonald booted 53 goals last season and looked to be blossoming into a genuine star of the competition. But this year he managed just 18 in 15 games (six came against the Blues), before a knee injury ended his season.
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St Kilda great Danny Frawley is bemused that Simon Goodwin has avoided the blowtorch, despite the Dees’ woeful season.
“It’s just amazing how they haven’t copped any scrutiny,” he said on SEN.
“I’ve never seen a bigger fall from grace, without a lot of people talking about it.
“They’re totally irrelevant.”
One factor in Goodwin’s defence is the lengthy injury list he’s had to contend with.
Jake Melksham booted 32 goals last season, but has been missing since Round 8. Star defender Jake Lever has played almost no footy. Recruit Steven May landed at the club from the Gold Coast out of shape and unaware of the elite levels required, then suffered injury after a late start.
Tough midfielder Aaron vandenBerg hasn’t played a game thanks to an ankle injury.
Gun defender Neville Jetta missed three months and small forward Jeff Garlett did his shoulder and will miss the rest of the season, as will young gun Marty Hore (collarbone). Recruit Kade Kolodjashnij copped a head knock in Round 3 and hasn’t played since due to concussion issues. Jordan Lewis, Michael Hibberd, Mitch Hannan and Joel Smith have also missed time.
It’s true Goodwin has avoided the scrutiny afforded the likes of sacked men Brendon Bolton, Brad Scott and Richardson.
But the footy world is a brutal beast and the wolves will be out for blood, should the Dees produce the same diabolical form in 2020.
They can start Operation: Save Goodwin this weekend by reversing the 40-point whacking St Kilda handed them in Round 5.
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