Jay Clark: ‘Wounded’ Clayton Oliver’s looming trade the latest own goal from Demons
As it stands, the Cats are sitting back with their feet up ready to land Clayton Oliver. Melbourne however, are in the thick of yet another crisis, one that’s their own making again, writes Jay Clark.
Melbourne
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To some degree, this is an astonishing own goal from Melbourne. The club that has lurched from one crisis to another all season will today consider whether it makes one of the biggest calls in recent trade history and explores a deal with Geelong on superstar onballer Clayton Oliver.
For the past 24 hours, the Demons’ top brass has been considering what was the least worst outcome.
Keeping an angry and disenchanted Oliver on its books for next season after dangling him as trade bait two years in a row, or getting 50 cents in the dollar back on a trade with the Cats?
The risk with keeping Oliver is that his situation could deteriorate further if he is not fully invested or feeling supported at Melbourne next year, and right now he feels let down.
As it stands, if Oliver attends the club’s best and fairest on Friday night it would only be out of a sense of loyalty to his teammates.
But the brilliant ball-winner is steaming, and Melbourne is now weighing up whether to pull the trigger on a blockbuster switch that remains incredibly complex and difficult to pull off.
His manager, Nick Gieschen from Connors Sports, is an influential figure at probably the most powerful management stable in the game.
History says they get it done, even if Melbourne is reluctant to play ball and still somewhat afraid of the consequences.
The Cats are sitting back in their comfiest leather couches down the highway and are smoking the pipes on this one, trying to hide their smiles.
Geelong will have to give a future first-round pick for one of the best on-ballers in the game, which is as cheap as a half-price fridge in the Boxing Day sales.
Geelong also has one of the best psychologists in football, David Williams, who could you believe, was also Melbourne’s psychologist between 2013-2019 before joining the Cats.
It is not a stretch to say if anyone knows Oliver and his issues well, it’s almost certainly Williams. What an ace to have up your sleeve.
The Cats think they can make this work with Bailey Smith and Oliver, who could both have some significant points to prove at new clubs.
But this story isn’t really about Geelong, and the enormous midfield boost it would receive if it can claim Western Bulldogs’ Smith, Carlton’s Jack Martin and a disgruntled Oliver.
It would be a brilliant exchange period after bowing out in a preliminary final loss to Brisbane Lions, and clubs such as St Kilda will wince in the belief the Cats have hit the jackpot, again.
But no, the extraordinary story here is not Geelong, it is the decline at Melbourne.
On Tuesday, the Demons put out a statement saying emphatically that Oliver was staying.
But in the two days since the thinking has shifted after Oliver’s positive meeting with the Cats’ officials and, in a separate meeting on Rhys Stanley’s farm, some players including Tom Stewart.
What Melbourne faces now is the likelihood that it would be almost impossible for this football club to squeeze the toothpaste back into the tube for the second year in a row after considering trading Oliver last year.
The Cat is out of the bag, so to speak.
In hindsight, Pert’s call to a rival club was a real doozy.
Yes, Pert made the call with the list management committee’s full support, but the club made contact hoping it would be kept quiet.
How often does that happen in football?
Now, Oliver feels wounded and unsupported after trying to do all the things the club asked of him this year to grow as a person off the field.
All season, Melbourne spruiked about Oliver’s development and effort in this space, and we have seen it with the considerable assistance of captain Max Gawn.
Coach Simon Goodwin said it almost every second week that ‘Clarry’ was in a great space etc, and the Demons really value the work he has done to meet their expectations.
‘We love you, Clarry’, Goodwin said on repeat.
Except when the club calls another to suss out his trade value.
Whoops.
Oliver, 27, has not been perfect, and has made some mistakes amid some personal problems, behavioural issues and family complexities that aren’t public.
But the big takeaway is that Oliver feels he has been hung out to dry by his own club this week, so he headed down the highway for some chats and now wants to become a Cat.
The damage feels done at Melbourne, a club Oliver helped lead to a premiership and won four best and fairests and three All-Australian jumpers.
He is a scintillating footballer at full flight, and Melbourne great Garry Lyon said early days the clearance-winner would be the best of his generation at Melbourne, if not for Gawn.
Gawn must be fuming.
All year in his Triple M interviews, Gawn has had to tow the party line for Melbourne and fronted up admirably.
But if there was one man in football who you would love to really open up on his own club’s own goals in 2024 it’s the skipper.
Clearly, there have been considerable failings from the top-down at Melbourne, and it was only by chance that Christian Petracca remained at Melbourne after having serious misgivings for a range of reasons including the handling of his life-threatening injuries.
Collingwood players and radio commentators all said Petracca should get off the field after his King’s birthday injuries, and that he was in a bad way, before Melbourne clued on.
Petracca’s spleen was mush, four ribs were broken, and his lung was split. Surgery saved his life.
Again, extraordinary. No wonder his family was filthy.
Plus there has been the Joel Smith drugs suspension, the Glen Bartlett inferno which has landed in court, and now an Oliver circus.
Port Adelaide’s Dan Houston wanted to go to Melbourne and Gieschen had almost got the deal over the line until Houston not only got a whiff of the smoke, but saw the cultural wildfire from across the border.
List chief Tim Lamb was said to be absolutely furious with the predicament when the call came through that Houston was out because of the off-field shenanigans.
But it has gotten worse.
‘Gawny’ played chess before every game with Oliver this year, but the superstar big man could be looking for a new partner for 2025.
No wonder Gawn said he would turn his phone off when he took off for a holiday with his family.
The Demons are faced with the very real prospect of losing Oliver on the cheap, if the clubs can come to an arrangement on the terms of a deal.
And it’s a tricky-looking Rubik’s cube, as things stand.
Geelong would have to pay the lion’s share of his $1.4 million salary, while Oliver may also have to take a pay cut as part of the cost of a fresh start at one of the most respected clubs in the game.
But Melbourne will almost have to chip in, too, just like they did with Brodie Grundy at Sydney.
So if the Demons chip in $200,000, Oliver takes a $200,000 cut, and Geelong stump up the rest, they may have a deal.
The Cats don’t make compromises on their salary cap structure, which is one of the many reasons they have been so successful.
But the absolute most Geelong would give up for Oliver is a future first-rounder, take it or leave it.
Melbourne fans will look desperately for a silver lining on a potential Oliver trade in the hope this cultural and salary cap reset will turn the tables on three failed years.
Collingwood copped it for booting Grundy, Adam Treloar and Jaidyn Stephenson out the door, but remarkably won the flag three years later.
The same nasty things were said of Collingwood at the time after breaking Treloar’s heart. That it was a club in crisis, and a train wreck.
The Magpies received pick 14 for Treloar (among other pick swaps) and paid about $250,000 a year of his salary, and used the Grundy and Treloar money to bring in other players who won them a flag.
Guys like Norm Smith Medallist Bobby Hill, Tom Mitchell, Dan McStay and Billy Frampton.
So there is some blue sky there if the Demons can make the most of whatever capital they can get back in the Oliver deal, and salary cap space is your friend in today’s football.
Perhaps the Demons can give the keys in the midfield to Petracca, Trent Rivers and Tom Sparrow, and provide more support forward for Jacob Van Rooyen.
But fans will rightfully worry that if Oliver goes, following Angus Brayshaw and Luke Jackson out the door, is the premiership window shut?
Perhaps this is the thunderbolt Melbourne needed to shake up a club which had been stiff to lose two close finals in 2023, but went backwards significantly this year.
Maybe this is the start of a new era at Melbourne, and will lead to more off-field change and less grumblings about culture and splits in the camp?
It will take some pain and this next fortnight could be a rocky ride as the talks ramp up and the trade tug of war begins.
As the Cats are saying, the ball is in Melbourne’s court. Oliver is their player.
But if it was up to the midfielder, he will be in the blue and white hoops in 2025.
The question is whether the Demons will bite the bullet.
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