Jon Ralph lists 23 reasons Hawthorn can win the 2018 premiership
RICHMOND is the nominal pick for the premiership, but there’s a very happy team at Hawthorn enjoying another stunning season. Here are 23 reasons every other club, including the Tigers, should be worried in September.
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RICHMOND was last year’s September darling, the fairytale story everyone wanted to cheer home.
Less than 12 months on, those same partisan supporters are a little tired of the Tigers’ dominance.
Now the football world is desperate to find a worthy challenger to inject some tension into a finals series in which Richmond will be the rampant premiership favourite.
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West Coast fans wanting to know why their side isn’t getting enough love are justified given the Eagles’ ability to respond to this year’s adversities and injuries.
Yet why should we be surprised that Hawthorn has timed its run perfectly, the Hawks one wide and one back with master trainer Alastair Clarkson aware his side can again compete for a flag?
It is easy to build a case that Hawthorn can upset Richmond and win a fifth flag in 11 seasons.
1. Their coach’s name is Alastair Clarkson, maybe the greatest coach in the last half-century.
2. Did we mention Clarko?
3. Last year Richmond’s shock loss came in Round 16, with their only blemish thereafter an away loss to Geelong.
Now Hawthorn is timing its run perfectly like all premiership sides, stringing together four wins after an upset Tasmanian loss to Brisbane, beating up on Carlton then Fremantle (away), Essendon and Geelong.
4. They again have a defensive system the envy of the competition, giving up only 75 points a game and four scores of 100 points this year.
5. Under Clarkson, they again play an elite game of keepings-off, their kicking efficiency a massive 4 per cent better than rival teams and taking the third-most marks in the competition, minimising turnovers which gives them the third-most possessions in the league.
6. They are getting fit at the right time of the year. Shaun Burgoyne is back from injury, Ben McEvoy has been named this week and James Sicily is only a fortnight away and ready to play in a potential qualifying final.
7. In Sicily, they have the No. 1-ranked general defender in the competition, who has taken the most intercept marks in the game this year.
8. Up forward, Luke Breust is the No. 1 general forward in the comp, averaging the most goals and score involvements in footy — 50 goals and an incredible 152 score involvements (7.6 a game).
9. Perhaps only Richmond has a better game plan in football. If the Hawks do give the ball back, they are the hardest team in footy to move the ball against.
Their opposition moves the ball from defensive 50 to inside 50 only 14 per cent of the time, the best rating Champion Data has recorded in its history.
10. When they get the ball inside 50, they lock it in. They are ranked third for time in forward half, third for inside-50 differential, third for most forward-half turnovers and most points from those turnovers.
11. Paul Puopolo only averages a goal a game (16 for the year) but he leads Hawthorn’s pressure game, averaging the third most pressure points in the competition of small forwards.
12. Did we mention Clarko?
13. When Jeff Kennett demands success (one premiership every five years, thank you very much!) he tends to get it.
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14. It’s not just James Sicily taking intercept marks, with all of Sicily (3.1 per game), Ben Stratton (1.9), Blake Hardwick (1.3), Kaiden Brand (1.3), James Frawley (1.1) and Ryan Burton (1) averaging more than one a game. That is some kind of miserly defence.
15. Remember when we kicked the proverbial out of Jaeger O’Meara? He has not only played 18 of a possible 20 games this year, he ranks elite as a goalkicking midfielder, averaging one per game. And he has a great pressure component to his game as well.
16. Versatility. Jack Gunston can play forward or back, Jarman Impey has just been shuffled back, Jarryd Roughead can play a marking or crumbing forward and moves into the ruck, James Worpel plays mid or forward, Morrison plays mid or forward. Clarko can shuffle the magnets at will.
17. Ruck strength. Jon Ceglar has seamlessly replaced the injured McEvoy and averages the most goals of any ruckman this year, which means Clarkson can play both if he chooses through September.
18. They have beaten the best — Collingwood, Geelong (twice), Melbourne, Essendon (twice), Port Adelaide and Adelaide, and run Richmond to within 13 points, closer than any team at the MCG apart from Geelong two weeks ago.
19. Isaac Smith averages the most goals of any wingman in the competition and the second-most score involvements.
20. They win the inside ball enough for their game plan to click. With Tom Mitchell as the main extractor, they are 11th in contested footy (they were 11th in the 2015 premiership year), although their clearance game sees them ranked only 13th (third in the 2015 premiership year).
21. They have won seven of nine MCG encounters this year, rolled by only Richmond and Sydney (eight points) in horrible conditions on a cold and wet Friday night.
22. Clarko’s finals record is phenomenal, a 16-8 win-loss record tarnished only by a straight-sets departure in 2016. If they can get a double chance and a crack at Richmond in a qualifying final, they are perfectly set up to do maximum damage.
23. The kids already look like men. Worpel, Harry Morrison, Brand and Teia Miles continue to stand up, while 197cm Irishman Conor Nash already looks a talent after one game.
Lets face it, if we want to talk football fairytales this year Melbourne and Collingwood head the queue given the Pies’ injury toll and the Demons’ decades-long premiership drought.
But there are few things more dangerous in football than supercoach Clarkson with a full squad, a head of full of innovative game plan ideas and a squad that has been there and done that so many times before.
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