AFL 2021: Take a deep dive into Hawthorn’s prospects for 2021 with our award-winning experts

At the moment, Hawthorn is a club with its back against the wall. On the field, there are four names who must stand tall in 2021.

Six years on from its triple-premiership triumph, Hawthorn has fallen way back into footy’s chasing pack. But while many are predicting a lengthy stay at the bottom, Hawks president Jeff Kennett sees shades of the Alastair Clarkson-led rebuild that culminated in the 2008 premiership.

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Mick Warner’s six people who will define the club in 2021:

The Hawks say coach Alastair Clarkson is a reinvigorated man. Picture: AFL Photos/Getty Images

■ Alastair Clarkson:

After a gruelling five-win season in the hubs, you’d be forgiven for thinking Clarko is a jaded figure compared to the man who collected “silverware” for fun between 2008-15. But colleagues insist the Hawthorn master coach — entering his 17th season at the helm — has returned “refreshed and reinvigorated” after an extended summer break. “Those that are working with him say to me that Clarko is back and Clarko is on fire,” president Jeff Kennett said. Massive football department cost cuts have seen Clarkson revert to a more hands on coaching role. “He’s actually thriving in the environment where now he is more involved in doing what he is paid to do,” Kennett said. “He had a good break and by his own admission he’s enjoying being closer to the players and the coaches than he has been over the last few years.” The absence of James Sicily (knee), Jack Gunston (back surgery), Tom Scully (retired) and Jon Patton (stood down) will seriously test the list’s depth, but as Jeff says, “You never write Alastair Clarkson off.”

Hawthorn president Jeff Kennett believes the seeds of another premiership are being sown at Hawthorn. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Andrew Henshaw

■ Jeff Kennett:

If not for the COVID crisis of 2020, Jeffrey Gibb would have bowed out at the end of last season. But the former Victorian premier’s decision to stay on and serve another three-year term is a godsend for the Hawks battling multiple fire fronts. The club’s lucrative contract to play four “home” matches a season in Launceston hangs by a thread, while the ambitious (and costly) Dingley relocation plan is progressing slowly. The Hawks will want answers from the Tasmanian Government on their future on the Apple Isle by July. Most pundits are expecting Hawthorn to drop off a cliff, but Kennett says he sees signs of the rebuild that culminated in the 2008 flag. “We’re not overly promising but I get the same feeling right now that I had in 2005. This is a group that we can build with to better things, step by step. So what do I say to people? I say, ‘I think we are in for a good year, it’s not going to be a premiership year, but it’s going to be another step back to what I hope will be a very, very competitive future for Hawthorn’.”

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Schoolteacher-turned footy man Rob McCartney has big shoes to fill. Picture: AFL Media

■Rob McCartney:

Graham Wright’s shock defection to Collingwood was a major blow, but when the Hawks cast the net wide over summer in search of his replacement as head of football operations it was the internal candidate McCartney — the former Shepparton primary school teacher — whom the selection panel couldn’t look past. “He’s a man of very strong values and his priorities are the interests of the club, rather than the interests of Rob McCartney or anyone else,” Kennett said. “He’s not a shrinking violet. He is strong enough to make decisions and prepared to argue his case, but then to accept the decision of any discussion that takes place. He is highly respected by the players and the coaching group. I like it when you can recruit from within because it gives everyone a sense of confidence about their own performance and the potential of being promoted.”

Medico Dr Peter Larkins believes Brownlow medallist Tom Mitchell will continue to improve from his horror broken leg injury two years ago. Picture: AAP

■Tom Mitchell:

It’s been a rocky road for the Hawthorn ball-magnet since winning the 2018 Brownlow. A badly broken leg at the start of 2019 was followed by a shoulder reconstruction at the end of last season, but Mitchell, 27, is pushing for an early-rounds return. Busted legs (think Nathan Brown and Matt Maguire) don’t always come good, but in the case of Mitchell, top sports medico Dr Peter Larkins is predicting a steady rise to back to full capacity. “A break is not a break, it depends on what other damage you get and how much out of alignment it goes, but Mitchell looks pretty reasonable to me … so I’m very optimistic about that. The majority do (get back to their best) and I wouldn’t have thought it was a big issue for Tom. As for the shoulder reconstruction, that’s a three-to-four month recovery if all goes well.” Despite his issues last year, the former Swan was ranked elite for disposals (25.3) and, surprisingly, elite for uncontested disposals (15) in his second-place finish behind Jack Gunston in the Peter Crimmins Medal.

Ben McEvoy emerged as the club’s choice for the captaincy. Picture: AFL Photos/Getty Images

■ Ben McEvoy:

After a “robust internal process facilitated by Leading Teams” McEvoy was picked as captain in place of the retired Ben Stratton. “I can’t tell you how pleasantly surprised I was at the decision,” Kennett said. “He’s a big man, he’s a country boy and he’s got great personal values. He epitomises the sort of things that we describe ourselves as the family club. I hope we get two or three years out of him and by that stage one of the more recent arrivals will hopefully have emerged through the crowd.” McEvoy was redeployed for large parts of last season as a key defender but should return to the ruck in cahoots with Jonathan Ceglar after the return to 20-minute quarters and the recruitment of Kyle Hartigan.

Injuries have cruelled Jaeger O'Meara’s career, but he is still a fine player in the Hawks’ midfield. Picture: AFL Photos/Getty Images

■ Jaeger O’Meara:

Tim Watson once tipped that O’Meara “could quite well go down in history as the greatest midfielder that’s ever played the game”. Dodgy knees put paid to that, but the O’Meara Hawthorn sold the farm for in the final minutes of the 2016 trade period is still rated above average for disposals, uncontested disposals, metres gained, clearances and tackles. But he kicked just four goals last year and is rated poor for score involvements. Larkins says keeping O’Meara, 27, healthy will always be a work in progress. “What’s happened with O’Meara is his patella tendon heals, but it scars up and so the patella bone starts getting cartilage inflammation and cartilage wear … and that is what caught up with Tom Scully eventually,” he said. “But they’ve always been clever at Hawthorn with his training loads, which is the secret to that. He was never really a jet in terms of speed but you do lose some of that power. It’s something that doesn’t go away but it looked to me last year like he was doing pretty well and I would expect him to again be a big contributor.”

BEST 22 FOR ROUND 1:

B: Blake Hardwick, Kyle Hartigan, Denver Grainger-Barras

HB: Jarman Impey, Sam Frost, Jack Scrimshaw

C: Tom Phillips, Tom Mitchell, Will Day

HF: Chad Wingard, Tim O’Brien, Luke Breust

F: Jack Gunston, Mitchell Lewis, Shaun Burgoyne

R: Ben McEvoy, Jaeger O’Meara, James Worpel

Int: Liam Shiels, James Cousins, Jonathan Ceglar, Changkuoth Jiath

Out: James Sicily (ACL), Jon Patton (stood down), Tom Scully (retired)

CHAMPION DATA

The good: The Hawks can move the ball; ranked No.3 for points scored from the defensive half in 2020 and No.7 from the defensive 50m to forward 50m.

The bad: Midfield numbers were poor last year; ranked last for contested possession and second-last for clearances.

Prediction after six matches: three wins, three losses

R1 v Ess (Marvel) – W

R2 v Rich (MCG) – L

R3 v Geelong (MCG) – L

R4 v Freo (Perth) – L

R5 v Melb (MCG) – W

R6 v Crows (Tas) – W

Expected finish: 10th-14th

Goal machine Jack Gunston will miss the start of the season. Picture: Getty Images

TRACK WATCH

Jack Gunston (back surgery) will miss the early rounds, Tom Scully has hung up the boots, James Sicily’s ACL is a hammer blow and who knows if we’ll see Jon Patton again, but it’s not all doom and gloom at Hawthorn. Top draft pick and intercept defender Denver Grainger-Barras will play early matches and there’s big wraps on their second selection, Connor Downie.

ROBBO’S LIKES AND DISLIKES

Herald Sun chief football writer Mark Robinson tackles the Hawks.

LIKES

Horrible season after entering the hub in South Australia, and winning two games from their final 13 matches. The Hawks hated hub life, but that’s not to say they will charge into September this year, either. Simply, they are not as dysfunctional as last season suggested. List changes see new faces and the Hawks needed them. Recruit Tom Phillips takes Isaac Smith’s role, Kyle Hartigan will be given an opportunity and so will draftee defender Denver Grainger-Barras, while boom youngster Will Day could be in All-Australian discussions if he improves on his 2020. Familiar surrounds will help the Hawks, but the list will hold them back.

Could young speedster Will Day be an All Australian in 2021? Picture: Michael Klein

DISLIKES

This is a club, at this point anyhow, with its back against the wall. On the field, let’s point the finger: Mitch Lewis has to impact, Chad Wingard needs consistency, James Worpel needs to find himself and Jonathon Patton needs to look at himself, that’s if he plays another AFL game. Off the field, football boss Graham Wright departed, which will change the dynamics, and, really, where are Alastair Clarkson and Jeff Kennett in terms of the future? The Hawks look unsteady with a list that needs attention. They will be competitive, but not sure it will equate to many wins. And best and fairest winner Jack Gunston is already behind time because of injury.

VERDICT

Bottom four

Can James Worpel step his game up? Picture: Sarah Reed

BURNING QUESTIONS ANSWERED

Fox Footy experts Nick Riewoldt, David King, Leigh Montagna and Jordan Lewis join Robbo to give their predictions for 2021 on Hawthorn:

ROBBO: Ask anyone over the summer whether the Hawks are coming or going and they look at you blankly. Kingy, what does your gut tell you about the Hawks?

KINGY: It’s unconventional. We’ve never seen this model spike back up and contend for a premiership in the short term from any other club. Minimal draft picks coming in the door and trusting that the likes of Mitchell, Worpel, O’Meara and Shiels will get it done in the middle when in 2020 they were 17th for clearances. They’re not playing the clearance game and they’re no longer getting the forward half intercepts that Alastair Clarkson was famous for. So where does it go to then? They’ve only had 12 national draft selections in the last four years and only four of those in the top 30. Clearly these guys are seriously intelligent people, so there must be some logic behind the scenes to this somewhere, but for the life of me I can’t see it.

ROBBO: Everyone accepts that Clarko is one of the great coaches, but is he also stubborn and saying, ‘I can fix this. You give me some players and I will get this team up and about.’

JOEY: That’s what it feels like it has to be. It’s like the club has so much faith in Clarko that he can do something remarkable with this list. Because if it was any other club and any other coach, we’d be sitting here asking, ‘What is this guy doing? What’s their plan?’ But it’s almost like because it is Clarko, we just all presume he must be thinking something we can’t see.

ROOEY: To what end? That would be my question — if you’re questioning the unconventionality of what they’re doing. Clarko might be able to pull it out and have the coaching performance of the year and they might finish sixth.

JORDAN: If they finish sixth it’s a disaster because it’s where they’ve been since 2016 and 2017. Where you don’t want to finish is around that mid-tier. They’d think, ‘We’ve done quite well here’, and the supporters are satisfied, but who knows what will happen next year and the year after. I think Hawthorn and Clarko looked at Geelong with what they were able to do and thought they could replicate that. But Geelong have destination. Isaac Smith leaves a successful organisation to go and play for an arch rival team. What’s different? One is they’re challenging and two it’s the environment they present.

Did the Hawks miss a trick in deciding against pulling the trigger on trading Jack Gunston and Luke Breust? Picture: AFL Media/Getty Images

ROOEY: Jordan, you finished at Melbourne, Sam Mitchell at West Coast, Luke Hodge and Grant Birchall at Brisbane. Given how brutal that environment has been and you’ve lived it, were you surprised that when there was interest in Gunston and Breust at the end of last year that they weren’t moved on for picks or younger players?

JORDAN: I thought that was the perfect time considering the history the past two years prior to that had been getting older players out with no real currency, to be honest. To have two players there with the realisation that you’re not going to compete and you don’t necessarily have access to the draft, that was a moment missed.

ROBBO: Verdict, Kingy?

KINGY: I think they’re spiralling on field and I’d be surprised if there wasn’t a big shift at the end of 2021.

ROOEY: Bottom third for me.