Statistics show a host of Geelong players underperform at business end of the season

IF this is Geelong’s nightmare on Moorabool St then Sydney is its Freddie Kreuger as the Cats stare at a straight sets exit with a host of players who regularly underperform at this time of year.

Joel Selwood leads his teammates off after Geelong’s qualifying final loss. Picture: Michael Klein

IF this is Geelong’s unfolding nightmare on Moorabool St then Sydney is its Freddie Kreuger.

The Cats are coming off a Richmond thrashing, staring at a straight sets exit and have a host of players who regularly underperform at this time of year.

If that’s not enough, nemesis Sydney is coming back to town to inflict more pain.

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This is the Swans who have won the last three against Geelong, took them apart in last year’s preliminary final and are the most rampant side in the competition.

They will run head-first into a battered Cats side on the MCG — a ground that Cats midfielder Scott Selwood on Saturday said was “very different” and forced Geelong to “alter stuff”.

Strewth.

Joel Selwood leads Geelong off after the qualifying final loss to Richmond.

Speaking after his side was belted by the Tigers, Geelong coach Chris Scott said: “Not much that we tried on the night seemed to work.”

He can say that again.

Richmond was 12th for contested ball differential after the regular season and Geelong No.1. Yet the Cats lost the contested possession count by 19 — their worst result of the year — and crumbled under Richmond’s highest pressure rating since 2012.

Glaringly, Geelong had a season-low 38 inside 50s against the Tigers. If they can only manage the same amount against Sydney the Swans will keep them to a soccer score.

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Since the start of 2016 the Cats have averaged more inside 50s in their three meetings with the Swans than any other rival. But Geelong’s scoring in the same period drops from 99.4 against the rest of the competition to a staggering 60.3 against Sydney.

Recent history says Geelong bangs its head up against a red and white wall trying to convert a glut of forward entries into scores. Scores per inside 50s go from 48.9 per cent against other sides to 32.6 per cent against the Swans.

CAT GOT YOUR TONGUE?

PLAYER	H&A RANKING PTS	FINALS RANKING PTS	DIFFERENCE
Jordan Murdoch	64.3	35.2	-29.1
Andrew Mackie	81.0	61.8	-19.2
Zac Smith	78.9	63.8	-15.1
Patrick Dangerfield	120.9	106.9	-14.0
Harry Taylor	82.5	69.9	-12.6
Tom Hawkins	83.3	70.9	-12.4
Steven Motlop	78.4	67.2	-11.2
Jake Kolodjashnij	57.4	49.9	-7.5
Mark Blicavs	82.7	78.3	-4.4
Scott Selwood	90.2	86.3	-3.9
Cam Guthrie	74.8	71.3	-3.5
Mitch Duncan	92.4	91.6	-0.8
Tom Lonergan	57.0	57.0	-
Joel Selwood	112.9	124.7	+11.8
Zach Tuohy	71.7	88.1	+16.4

Geelong players to have played at least three finals since 2012, only Joel Selwood and Zach Tuohy perform better at the business end. (NB: two of Tuohy’s finals were at Carlton)

The Cats have also melted under the Swans’ pressure, resulting in a drop in kicking efficiency of 67.8 per cent to 62.5 per cent.

Exactly what you want coming at you when you’ve scored a measly 5.10 against Richmond and recorded a kicking efficiency below 50 per cent (48.9 per cent) for the first time since the stat has been recorded.

“You go into that side of the draw and you can make an argument that Adelaide and Sydney have been the best two teams for a lot of the year,” Scott said.

“But we worked really hard to get ourselves into this position where could have another crack at it. We have no choice but to be optimistic about what we can do, but when you’re playing at this end of the season the opposition is good.

“Next week will be tough ... but we’re up for the fight.”

Patrick Dangerfield. Picture: Michael Klein

Tom Hawkins. Picture: Michael Klein

The bigger picture has the Cats 2-7 in finals since the 2011 flag in Scott’s first year in the job. The two wins came via an Issac Smith miss after the siren last year and a 23-point second half comeback against Port Adelaide in 2013.

But captain Joel Selwood described the Tigers loss as a “hiccup” and was confident fortunes could quickly improve.

“It only takes one win to get back on and get this side riding a wave, as we saw the Bulldogs do last year,” he said.

“One big win next weekend could change (the) whole landscape of things.”

That potentially big win will almost certainly need to come without Cam Guthrie and Jake Kolodjashnij, who both went down with injured calves on Friday night and could now be out for the season.