Mick McGuane: Why Geelong’s biggest threat to premiership tilt could be complacency
Geelong is two games clear on top of the ladder, but there have been signs over the past month the Cats might be falling into a common trap. Do they deserve to be flag favourites?
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Are the Cats as good as we think they are?
Given Geelong sits two games clear on top of the ladder after 11 rounds, it is logical that people are suggesting Chris Scott’s men are heading towards a 2019 premiership.
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You can see why. They are currently the No.1 attacking team in the AFL as well as being ranked the No.1 defence, which equates to the best percentage (144.9) in the competition.
They seem perfectly balanced, with their players prepared to work hard both sides of the ball.
The biggest challenge for Geelong is to not become complacent. Or, to a degree, has it already set in.
They had a hard draw in the early stages of 2019, but the trap for good teams is believing that talent alone will get the job done.
In the past month the Cats have either relied on incredible accuracy or a ‘hard enough for long enough’ mentality to get themselves over the line.
They kicked 16.8 to 11.14 against North Melbourne in Round 8. Then it was 21.7 to the Bulldogs’ 13.11 a week later.
Only a terrific last quarter against Gold Coast got them over the line after clinging to a one-point lead at the last change. Against Sydney last week, they kicked 13.7 to 8.15.
The Cats have looked tested at times against teams sitting 13th, 14th, 15th and 17th on the ladder.
Is this reflection of the evenness of the comp, or is it complacency creeping in?
Is it a case of ‘we’ve got a switch and we know when to flick it’? That’s dangerous if that mentality enters the subconscious.
GOAL CONVERSION
The Cats are prepared to put significant time into their goalkicking routines. It is an undervalued component of the game and it staggers me other teams don’t seem to put the same focus into it.
Geelong has kicked 163.110 this season, almost 60 per cent accuracy return based on scoring shots.
Full credit to their program and to their players for finishing off the team’s from further afield. They have kicked behinds more than goals on only two occasions in 2019.
LOCK TOMAHAWK IN
Tom Hawkins is on track for a second All-Australian guernsey, and the first in seven years.
He is a serious presence. His positioning with his forward teammates is selfless as he has the foresight to manufacture space for himself and others so they create 1v1 opportunities for teammates up the ground.
As a key forward, he is averaging three inside 50 marks per game, 2nd in the competition.
If he doesn’t mark the footy, he is not lost to the game either.
Why? He hunts and wins the ground ball inside 50m better than any other key forward in the comp, averaging 2.4 per game. That’s extraordinary for a man of his size.
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GAME STYLE
Here’s what I wrote about the Cats leading into Round 1 — “I’d love to see their signature brand be ‘controlled ball movement’.
Clearly, that’s been their 2019 mode.
The coach has great admiration for Richmond — and rightly so.
He will have drummed into his players to expect the best from the Tigers tomorrow.
Damien Hardwick will preach two words — “contest” and “pressure”. On both fronts, against the best teams, pressure MUST be high and winning the contest MUST be the key.
That’s why controlling the ball is critical against Richmond.
I’m tipping a hyped-up, rebounding Tiger outfit at the MCG after such a poor showing against North last week.
Richmond will want a chaos game; Geelong will revert to controlled ball movement.
POSSESSION FOOTY
Geelong will have gone to school on Richmond’s losses this year.
The Tigers’ time in possession differential is compelling, with losses coming against Collingwood (-12.49), GWS (-7.19), Western Bulldogs (-13.46) and North Melbourne (-6.44).
On only two occasions — Port Adelaide (-7.11) and Sydney (-0.45) — have the Tigers lost the time in disposal differential and won the game.
In Round 2, the Magpies had 467 possessions (291 kicks) to the Tigers’ 302. In that game Collingwood took an astonishing 174 marks (159 uncontested).
It was a similar story in the Bulldogs’ win in Round 7 when they took 134 marks (115 uncontested).
This method takes the Tigers’ pressure game away from them.
So ball control MUST be a part of Geelong’s DNA tomorrow. The Cats have the lowest play-on percentage in the comp which is a far cry from the Mark Thompson days.
They like to be sure about what’s next, rather than playing with that reckless abandon that invites mistakes.
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DIFFERENT ROUTE
What I didn’t predict in the pre-season was Geelong’s preference for boundary line ball movement from defensive 50.
The Cats have the AFL’s highest boundary line percentage from D50m — 62.7 per cent — and the least corridor percentage from D50 at 9.8 per cent.
They play safe and take fewer risks exiting from defensive 50m.
This method protects them on turnover, giving their defenders a chance to set up behind the ball.
If the ball does go over the boundary, it gives the team a chance to reset and allows their strength — “midfield dominance” — to get to work.
Tim Kelly, Patrick Dangerfield, Joel Selwood, Mitch Duncan, Brandon Parfitt and Cam Guthrie add to their contest game.
Their ability to hunt the ground ball is strong and they have great nous to swoop on the loose footy.
So are the Cats complacent? Or are they legitimate premiership contenders?
Friday night, at the MCG, we just might get a better indication.
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