Mick McGuane: Where Geelong, Collingwood and Essendon can turn around their finals fortunes
The Vics have four teams in the top eight right now, but three of them are facing huge challenges. Mick McGuane takes an in-depth look at what Geelong, Collingwood and Essendon must get right before the finals.
Geelong
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Grand Finals aren’t played in June.
If they were, the Cats would be the 2019 premiers.
They were the competition’s measuring stick after 12 rounds, on top of the ladder with 11 wins and a narrow four-point loss to GWS.
Now, after their disappointing on-the-road loss to Fremantle, Chris Scott has had to digest what has gone wrong since their Round 13 bye.
They have won just three from their last seven matches and are rightly under the blowtorch.
Some say they have been out of form; others have suggested they are in a heavy training load; and, some have questioned the speed and direction of their ball movement.
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To me, the most important thing they must fix is their contested and clearance game.
When they do that, it will give them the opportunity to protect their territory.
Patrick Dangerfield, Tim Kelly, Joel Selwood, Mitch Duncan and Brandon Parfitt — who has played only three games since the bye — know how to win their own footy.
But as a collective, they must get to work — inside and outside the contest.
Their collective workrate must be questioned.
Dangerfield, as good as he is, has been the main culprit. He needs to stop being a walker from a stoppage or being the last to leave.
He is a contested ball-winning machine, but is also vitally important to get onto the loose ball more often.
The inclusion of Parfitt this week will help, as I love the combination of him and Kelly around the ball.
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They have an uncanny awareness of where the ball is going before others do.
The Cats brought in Scott Selwood to rectify their contested ball numbers but that may have brought an imbalance to the midfield make-up.
When the timing is right, they must bring in Nakia Cockatoo. He will bring the dynamic flair needed.
Geelong’s workrate across the board is also an issue — unless it is a self-preservation thing since they qualified for finals months ago.
Gary Rohan’s goals have dried up and even though he won’t play for a few weeks, the Cats need him back in form.
Luke Dahlhaus’ tackling numbers have shifted. He has had two, one and two tackles in his past three games, compared to six, 11 and seven in his first three.
Get back to work, Luke.
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COLLINGWOOD
THE SMALL FORWARD RESHUFFLE MIGHT END UP BEING A HELP
Collingwood must use the loss of Mason Cox to its advantage.
The Magpies can create a more dynamic front half.
Yes, there will be extra responsibility on Brody Mihocek as the No. 1 key forward, but they can also use the smaller Jamie Elliott and Will Hoskin-Elliott as good marking options.
Then they need a healthy Jordan De Goey — most likely to return in Round 23 — a motivated Jaidyn Stephenson from the first week of the finals, pressure forwards Callum Brown and Travis Varcoe, and don’t forget Steele Sidebottom.
The biggest issue for Collingwood without Cox is who helps out Brodie Grundy.
Nathan Buckley will have to be creative.
Last week, it was Rupert Wills in the second half who was used at centre bounces to give Grundy a spell.
He doesn’t have to compete for centre bounce hit-outs, but it means the Pies will have an extra ball-winning midfielder to try and read the ball off the opposition ruckman’s hands.
Jordan Roughead has been a defensive anchor, but the Pies could still use him against teams playing two specialist ruckmen.
Since Round 11, Collingwood’s ability to score, particularly from turnover, has been its No. 1 issue.
They have averaged only 77 points per game since then, and have averaged only 39.7 points from turnover, ranking them 15th.
They have also been outscored in that same period by just under two goals per game from turnovers. One could argue with Cox out, their forward-half pressure will increase, helping their pressure game.
I’m excited to see what this new-look forward lines generates.
Could they be the Richmond of 2017?
ESSENDON
BOMBERS’ MIDS MUST PROVIDE PRESSURE ON TWO FRONTS
The Bombers’ pressure after halftime last week was embarrassing.
They can’t afford that against a high-volume team such as the Western Bulldogs, who have won the past four games against Essendon.
I want to put the acid on Essendon’s midfield — they don’t kick enough goals.
I’ve always judged midfielders on their goalkicking potential — you want them to kick one goal a game.
That hasn’t happened at Essendon this year.
For example, Dylan Shiel has kicked 7.12 from his 19 games. It took him until Round 9 to kick his first goal.
Zach Merrett has only kicked 6.10 from his 19 games.
The midfielders must penetrate the forward 50m arc in an attempt to score.
The positives are Kyle Langford (12 goals in 14 games) and Darcy Parish (11 from 18).
Dylan Clarke, who is yet to kick a score, has come in as a much needed tagger.
It’s OK to be task-orientated, but the next challenge is to know when to leave your direct opponent to try and win a way to kick a goal.
Enormous enthusiasm is generated from that play, but it is also demoralising for the opponent you are playing on. That’s the psychology of the game.
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