Geelong’s recent history against Sydney makes for ugly reading ahead of semi-final

GEELONG will have to overcome history and its mental demons if it is to beat Sydney on Friday night and these stats make for ugly reading if you’re a Cats fan.

Patrick Dangerfield after Geelong’s 2016 preliminary final loss. Picture: Wayne Ludbey

THE scientific term for a fear of Swans is kyknophobia, and sadly Geelong has a serious dose of it.

The Cats will have to overcome some serious history — and mental demons — to beat Sydney in their semi-final at the MCG on Friday night.

Forget home state advantage, in fact, you can even forget home field advantage because Sydney has a massive edge over the Cats no matter where the game is played.

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But it’s not just the Swans the Cats have had trouble with in recent years.

September hasn’t been kind to Chris Scott’s men since their last premiership in 2011, as our statistics below will show.

All will be revealed on Friday night but if it goes Sydney’s way, you’ll know why.

Isaac Heeney and Dan Hannebery celebrate a goal during last year’s preliminary final. Picture: Colleen Petch

1. Since the 2011 Grand Final, Geelong has played in nine finals and won just two, including a two-point thriller against Hawthorn last year when Isaac Smith missed a shot after the siren.

2. Geelong has lost its past three games against Sydney and five of its past six against the Swans.

3. Geelong has never beaten Sydney/South Melbourne in a final. The teams have met only four times in September - last year, in 2005 (the Nick Davis “I see it but I don’t believe it” game), and meetings in 1914 and 1934.

4. Geelong has never beaten Sydney/South Melbourne at the MCG. They have met at the venue only three teams — all in finals.

Mitch Duncan, Josh Caddy and Patrick Dangerfield after the preliminary final loss. Picture: Colleen Petch

5. The last meeting there was in last year’s preliminary final, when the Swans claimed a 37-point victory.

6. In that game Geelong won the inside-50 count 72-40 but kicked eight goals to Sydney’s 15.

7. The Swans kicked seven goals to none in the first quarter, continuing a worrying trend of slow starts for the Cats in big games. Against the Tigers it took 50 minutes for Geelong to register its first goal.

8. In contrast Sydney has a habit of bursting out of the blocks. Last time against Geelong the Swans kicked 7.5 to 2.3 to effectively end the game by by quarter-time. In last year’s semi-final they knocked Adelaide out of September with a 10-goal to four first half, and against Essendon on Saturday they led 13 goals to three at halftime.

9. In the past two seasons the Cats have a 7-5 win-loss record at the MCG, but worryingly they average three fewer goals there than when they play at Simonds Stadium.

A FEAR OF SWANS

Statistic	v Sydney (2016-17)	v all others (2016-17)
Points For	60.3	99.4
Points Against	100.7	75.9
Score per I50m	32.6%	48.9%
Goal per I50m	14.5%	26.4%
Inside 50s	57.3	55.0
Kicks I50m	49.3	46.7
Mark Rate /I50m	16.2%	22.1%
Rentention Rate /I50m	44.6%	52.2%
Kicking Efficiency	62.5%	67.8%
Pressure Received	198	183