Footy’s 10 great enigmas: Is Christian Petracca the Ben Simmons of the AFL?
Think Christian Petracca doesn’t do enough, Josh Kelly is a brilliant kick and James Sicily doesn’t play on anyone? Check out the mythbusting stats on the AFL’s 10 great enigmas.
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Christian Petracca might just be the AFL’s version of his great childhood mate Ben Simmons.
A player who is scrutinised more for what he cannot do than lauded for the preternatural skills in their chosen area of the sporting field.
Just as Simmons is desperate to find range with his jump shots, Melbourne’s Petracca will next season try to explore his horizons as an AFL footballer further up the field.
He wants serious midfield time, and he wants it now.
It will be a fascinating watch for Melbourne, just one of many subplots of the summer as Simon Goodwin’s senior players officially return to training today.
SCROLL DOWN TO SEE RALPHY’S 10 FOOTY ENIGMAS
On Goodwin’s clipboard will be bullet points that will define Melbourne’s season.
HOW does he crack the code for Tom McDonald, whose confidence deserted him in 2019 in what was by Champion Data measures the fourth-largest drop-off in ranking points?
WHERE does he play former captain Nathan Jones and how does he harness his passion after a months-long contract saga where both player and club grew frustrated with each other?
Half back would seem the obvious starting point after he was pushed from the midfield, with Ed Langdon and Adam Tomlinson the new starting wingmen.
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HOW does he revamp a forward line that utterly failed to convert the weight of inside 50s last year as Petracca (22 goals) and a pair of former half backs Jayden Hunt (21) and Bailey Fritsch (20) led all scorers.
Because as much as Petracca wants to play midfield, the pure numbers would tell you he is right at home exactly where he has played most of his 85 AFL games.
Petracca is one of the AFL’s enigmas, a player misunderstood by most AFL fans who believe he is yet to cash in on his talent.
The reality is only three players are ranked better than him as general forwards based on player ratings — Gary Ablett, Kane Lambert and Jordan De Goey.
In what can be starvation corner, he ranked second for the position for contested possessions, second for ground ball gets inside 50 and fifth for possessions.
Last year’s 22.14 from 45 shots was wasteful, but he even had more shots than the stellar 2017 season with 26.6 and six outright misses.
The key issue when he played midfield off an interrupted summer was his lack of fitness, Petracca only able to sustain three-minute bursts before his performance dropped markedly.
Clayton Oliver is one of footy’s best ball winners but is not a defensive midfielder, so with Petracca and Oliver in the same midfield the Demons were a defensive liability.
Can he become an elite aerobic animal able to play both roles?
An off-season with a Nike training camp in America where he spent time with his mate Simmons has him ahead of last year’s mediocre summer as a knee issue hampered him.
But just as Simmons might have the rare passing ability and inside game to win a title without a three-point shot, maybe the Demons can thrive if they convince Petracca he is what he has always been.
A star half forward whose gifts are best harnessed closer to goal.
FOOTY’S GREAT ENIGMAS
Jon Ralph on the AFL’s most misunderstood players:
JACOB WEITERING (Carl)
MYTH
Is a flat track bully who dines out on intercept possessions while not playing on a man.
REALITY
The No.1 draft pick was sixth in Carlton’s best-and-fairest last season, had the second-best defensive rating of all key defenders in the league and rated above average for intercept possessions and intercept marks.
JOSH KELLY (GWS)
MYTH
The Rolls Royce of the competition has a left foot that keeps hitting targets, making him an even more valuable player given his ball-winning ability.
REALITY
Kelly has the second-worst kick rating of any player who average 25 touches per game.
He rates elite for metres gained and uncontested possessions, so it’s not as if he is getting all his footy deep in a contest.
JAMES SICILY (Haw)
MYTH
A defensive star, but does his best work when he can peel off an opponent and run around by himself.
REALITY
He is a defensive beast, having won 51 per cent of his defensive one-on-one contests – ranked No.1. He also rates elite for disposals, metres gained, marks and intercept possessions.
MATT CROUCH (Adelaide)
MYTH
Is such a brilliant contested ball winner that it excuses his sideways and short kicking style.
REALITY
Crouch has the second-lowest contested possession rate of all midfielders who rated elite or above average for disposals. Crouch is rated average for contested possessions but elite for uncontested possessions.
ADAM SAAD (Ess)
MYTH
Saad is a run-and-carry phenomenon, another skilful half back whose work with ball in hand makes him a weapon for the Dons.
REALITY
Saad is a defend-first player, recording the fifth-best defensive rating of all general defenders.
He was also one of only five general defenders to rate elite for pressure points, tackles and defensive half pressure acts.
DAYNE ZORKO (BL)
MYTH
The Lions captain is a downhill skier who gets ahead of the ball to kick those lovely eye-catching, running goals.
REALITY
Not only did Zorko kick 23 goals and amass 536 disposals this year, he was one of only five midfielders to rate elite for pressure points, pressure acts and tackles.
He has applied a total of 1014 tackles since 2012 – ranked No.1 in the competition in front of Sydney’s Josh Kennedy on 1010.
TOM PHILLIPS (Coll)
MYTH
The classy ball winner not only kicks goals as a wingman (12 this year), his scalpel of a left foot maximises his possessions.
REALITY
Phillips averaged 4.65 disposals per turnover in 2019 – ranked 47th of the top-50 disposal winners in the AFL. Collingwood also lost possession from 51% of his kicks inside 50 – ranked 71st of the top-75 players for kicks inside 50.
TIM KELLY (WC)
MYTH
Tim Kelly isn’t a poor kick, he is just under pressure so much he doesn’t cash in on his disposals.
REALITY
This one is confusing. Kelly averaged 25.4 disposals but his kick rating in the contest (under physical or closing pressure) is excellent. He actually has a negative kick rating when under NO pressure, clearly an area for improvement.
CHRISTIAN PETRACCA (Melb)
MYTH
One of the AFL’s great teases, he is wasted as a forward because he doesn’t kick enough goals.
REALITY
He is rated as the fourth-best general forward in the competition based on AFL Player Rating points – behind Gary Ablett, Kane Lambert and Jordan De Goey. Rates elite in his position for disposals, contested possessions, metres gained and clearances.
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DANE RAMPE (Syd)
MYTH
An undersized defender who makes up for the goals he leaks with attacking drive.
REALITY
Rampe is one of the leading defenders, winning 42 per cent of his defensive one-on-one contests this year. It was good enough for fifth in the comp. He also rated elite for disposals, metres gained and tackles for a key defender.